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Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

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Re: Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

#42
post #31

Indeed my first assessment way back when it was 1) Read the Whitepaper 2) Read the Bitcoin Standard Book (and subsequently the Fiat Standard book) 3) Listened to The Saylor Series on YouTube, and 4) Did the MIT Blockchain and Money course. I then re-considered criticism from: 1) Various Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger interviews 2) The Blackpaper by Nassim Taleb, and 3) Various interviews with Peter Schiff. My concl…

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Re: Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

#43
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure whether crypto is a good or bad thing overall but there are plenty of good uses for it: * In countries with unstable currencies they are useful stores of value (Venezuela, Turkey and Zimbabwe right now). I was in Zim back in 2010 and visited someone's house. It was filled with petrol because he had been paid and had to spend the money before it lost its value so he bought what was available. Bitcoin woul…

It might be worth noting that the wild volatility of cryptocurrencies hurts all of these use-cases.

That is a very fair criticism.

Re: Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

#45
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comparison to oil isn't quite fair to oil. Oil has a lot of negative side effects, to be clear, but the benefits to society from the use of oil include pretty much all the things we depend on for modern civilization. That is why replacing oil with renewables is going to be such a challenge. When it comes to crypto, on the other hand, I think the challenge would be listing any real benefits to begin with.

I'm not sure whether crypto is a good or bad thing overall but there are plenty of good uses for it: * In countries with unstable currencies they are useful stores of value (Venezuela, Turkey and Zimbabwe right now). I was in Zim back in 2010 and visited someone's house. It was filled with petrol because he had been paid and had to spend the money before it lost its value so he bought what was available. Bitcoin woul…

> * In countries with unstable currencies they are useful stores of value (Venezuela, Turkey and Zimbabwe right now). I was in Zim back in 2010 and visited someone's house. It was filled with petrol because he had been paid and had to spend the money before it lost its value so he bought what was available. Bitcoin would have been a lot safer and less likely to cause shortages of goods (and more inflation).

It'd only be true if Bitcoin was actually stable and a store of value. At the moment is a highly speculative and volatile asset, fueled by a mania, not a stable supply of value and liquidity. It's liquid until the next big crash, for people who actually depend on having a stable store of value for their survival, a crash of 20% in a day can be devastating, less than a crash of their own currency but still not stable enough to warrant it as a safe way to park money.

Just buy USD or another powerful currency, if one of these currencies crash to the point where it's mostly worthless then humanity has a much, much larger problem and having some bucks saved somewhere won't really help you.

And yes, even in Venezuela, Argentina, Cuba, etc., there is a black/grey market for other currencies, it will be more expensive than the official exchange rate (if those are manipulated by the government) but is still doable, even more given the technical knowledge required to properly use cryptocurrencies, it's easier for the general population to hoard cash in a better currency.

> * They offer a much cheaper and simpler way to move money between countries both for ordinary people and small businesses.

Much cheaper? TX costs are really high, the solution to this has only been talked about and implemented as Proof of Concepts. The solution is either a L2 network (I've been hearing about Lightning as "the next big thing" for almost half a decade now) or moving away from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, this move has been much harder and slower than any proponent of it has publically pitched.

Small businesses are not sophisticated enough to be able to hedge against huge price fluctuations such as the ones cryptocurrencies experience, small businesses relying on crypto at this time would be just a major risk to themselves, with the only benefit being "it's fast to move money abroad". Very few small businesses really care about moving money as fast as possible across international borders with no legal checks, usually they are illegal businesses.

> * By making online retail anonymous they've allowed the circumvention of all sorts of prohibitions. Sometimes that might be a bad thing, but I think it's a part of the reason we've seen weed legalised in so many US states.

Quite a libertarian take that anything should be free of controls. I agree that governments seem to be getting more draconian lately in the West, at the same time protections against prohibitions will mostly fuel and incentivise exactly the behaviour that was prohibited (financial scams, anyone? or drug trade?), enabling that without discussing the merits of such prohibitions is just inviting and incentivising the worst kind of behaviours, the ones most prohibited and more taboo.

I would like to know where are you drawing the parallel of weed being legalised to cryptocurrencies, I don't remember seeing anywhere an explanation of this link and I believe it's wishful thinking from your part.

> And remember: we don't ban things because you or I don't see the point. If someone else thinks they see a point, and they're not hurting anyone, they have every right to pursue what interests them.

Just the sheer amount of electricity being consumed to run this system is hurting societies, energy is probably the single most valuable resource for modern societies, spending it so some people can play around to inflate some numbers is a huge waste, even more if energy is coming from fossil sources.

Re: Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

#46
post #3

Fresh in-pouring of victims to sustain the whole thing, while some bigger players benefit. Im sorry, I don't want to argue anymore with crypto advocates. There is no more rational discussion to possibly be had about any of the current contenders in this space. The whole thing needs to be pulled apart. Just because some people earn money from it, doesn't make it moral, a good idea , useful, or bettering human society.…

I don't care about crypto.

You comment seems to amount to "I won't argue because you're not rational. The thing you believe in is awful and should cease to exist".

Please reconsider.

Re: Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

#47
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure whether crypto is a good or bad thing overall but there are plenty of good uses for it: * In countries with unstable currencies they are useful stores of value (Venezuela, Turkey and Zimbabwe right now). I was in Zim back in 2010 and visited someone's house. It was filled with petrol because he had been paid and had to spend the money before it lost its value so he bought what was available. Bitcoin woul…

> In countries with unstable currencies they are useful stores of value (Venezuela, Turkey and Zimbabwe right now) Also, Cuba and Argentina. While Bitcoin may be more accessible to people in these countries, they could also store value in USD, or other stable assets. > By making online retail anonymous I really don't understand the persistent myth that blockchains are anonymous.

In Argentina you can only buy 200 USD per month and even that isn't guaranteed, you have to make appointments with banks in a lot of places. And even if you get them, you can't use them outside of the country because such payments are mostly blocked. You can pay online services or internatioal shippings by converting to crypto first and trade it with a foreigner to deposit USD in a foreign bank account, and then make the actual payment.

Re: Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

#48
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure whether crypto is a good or bad thing overall but there are plenty of good uses for it: * In countries with unstable currencies they are useful stores of value (Venezuela, Turkey and Zimbabwe right now). I was in Zim back in 2010 and visited someone's house. It was filled with petrol because he had been paid and had to spend the money before it lost its value so he bought what was available. Bitcoin woul…

> In countries with unstable currencies they are useful stores of value (Venezuela, Turkey and Zimbabwe right now) Also, Cuba and Argentina. While Bitcoin may be more accessible to people in these countries, they could also store value in USD, or other stable assets. > By making online retail anonymous I really don't understand the persistent myth that blockchains are anonymous.

> I really don't understand the persistent myth that blockchains are anonymous.

They are, at least in principle.

Sure, if you pay for something and have it delivered to your home, someone now knows the address linked to the wallet you used; do this a lot, and the chances increase that this link will end up in the wrong databases.

But that doesn't mean bitcoin & co. aren't, at least on their own, fairly anonymous.

Re: Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

#49

My prediction: it will take years for this to pop in the absence of a general economic crysis. The crypto coins gave just struck the most anti tech circle of my friends. They are watching youtube videos of how to mine on mobile phones besides buying the most obscure coins they can find. So it looks to me like there's plenty of potential "investors" out there who can sustain this thing for years to come.

I think the same. Especially when you see in investing forums that many people are tilting 5% to crypto.

I think crypto "investing" might be here to stay, for quite a while at least.

Not that I think it should: it's a non-productive asset valued almost totally based on the greater fool theory, and there seem to be very credible indications that there may be large-scale price manipulation going on. But it appears to have managed to become entrenched in culture to the point that my non-tech-savvy colleagues talk about it like a normal thing, and financial media personalities comment on the price movements alongside securities and other asset classes.

But to be fair, in some ways securities are quite disjoint from "true value" as well. If I buy a share in AAPL from another investor, the minuscule dividend and voting rights I acquire do very little to justify the price of the stock. I am really buying it in hopes that the market value will increase in time to make my retirement a bit more comfortable.

Re: Why Bitcoin is worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme

#50
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto=/= Bitcoin Bitcoin offers a decentralized, supply capped alternative to central banking. If this seems useful to you, use it, if it doesn't, don't use it. Simple as that. Currently people find the ability to have unconfiscatable money attractive.

How do I opt out of the massive amounts of electronic waste and carbon emissions from Bitcoin?

You switch to a coin that uses proof-of-stake?

Several of the totally OG cryptographers, like Chaum or Micali, have created blockchains that are using PoS (Micali is behind Algorand and Chaum behind an upcoming "elixxir" coin I think, forgot the name).

Of course there's also Ethereum which is currently switching to PoS.

Cryptocurrencies haters better find another argument than "energy consumption" because I think the gigantic energy waste is coming to an end soon.

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