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Omicron Update, Dec 2

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

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Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#41

Post by simonh »

adam_arthur wrote: post #26
simonh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Widespread vaccination dramatically reduces the rate at which the virus spreads, by more than 80%. It's not a binary does/doesn't stop spreading. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z Vaccination rates in the US have been abysmal by developed world status, precisely because so many of you don't think vaccination works. It does work to dramatically slow spreading, but only if enough people take it up.

Yes, of course. But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling. Covid is here forever, and that's life.

We can't stop it dead, but we can dramatically reduce the number of critical illnesses and deaths, and have done so in many countries. I'm a Brit and our lockdown and vaccination policy has been extremely effective. We've largely lived normal lives since the summer, with low case rates and very low mortality thanks to strong vaccine uptake and popular support for protective measures. If we need to lock down again, we will because we have experienced the benefits that this strategy has produced. I'm having my booster shot on Saturday.

I fully expect to contract the virus at some point, and that's fine. I'm well protected by vaccination and the rate of propagation in the country is moderate enough that the hospitals aren't being overwhelmed by huge surges in infections and deaths any more.

Slowing down and limiting the impact of the virus doesn't stop it, correct, but it does massively reduce the damage it causes. That is very much worth doing, as the experience here in the UK clearly shows.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#42

Post by junon »

tremon wrote: post #7
y4mi wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i don't have any domain knowledge so i cannot build an opinion on the matter, but the fact that they discovered it doesn't give them more authority on the topic then everyone else. most researchers i've heard on the topic only said "we will have to pay close attention to it", which sounds pretty reasonable from my uneducated perspective.

Both the name and the picture in the article would suggest that "he" is, in all likelihood, a she.

Wtf is your goal with this comment?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#43

Post by junon »

loeg wrote: post #33
junon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading There is not widespread vaccination, though. That's where your argument falls apart.

That, and vaccination does reduce transmission in addition to disease severity.

Yes, correct

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#44

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

jrochkind1 wrote: post #9
y4mi wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i don't have any domain knowledge so i cannot build an opinion on the matter, but the fact that they discovered it doesn't give them more authority on the topic then everyone else. most researchers i've heard on the topic only said "we will have to pay close attention to it", which sounds pretty reasonable from my uneducated perspective.

The South African scientists I have read saying "over-reacting" also agree with what you summarize as most researchers saying: "we will have to pay attention to it". They say we are over-reacting because many places are doing more than paying attention to it, making policy decisions and instituting additional restrictions based on unproven fears about it, not just paying attention to it. The South African scientists…

Believing there's an option to do nothing until more data is available is a luxurious fallacy.

By then it's too late. Obviously.

That's the problem with exponential growth. Not much seems to happen until suddenly it all happens at once, and the only chance to prevent that was a few weeks ago.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#45

Post by adam_arthur »

junon wrote: post #29
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading There is not widespread vaccination, though. That's where your argument falls apart.

Covid is spreading at a similar rate today in most countries as it did when it first struck and there was no vaccine at all.

Look at the trends in Italy, UK, US, for example.

I agree the vaccine helps, but there is no clear impact on reducing spread if you look at infection data in aggregate.

We've gone from 0% vaccinated, to 60-70% with no discernable dip in infection counts.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#46

Post by tremon »

beagle3 wrote: post #32
shmatt wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SA is only 25% vaxxed. Perfect ground for new mutations

The vaccine is leaky. It doesn’t stop infection or transmission. It’s not clear yet if it is putting any evolutionary pressure towards vaccine evasion (some people expect it to). But SA is no more a breeding ground than anywhere else. The well-documented breeding grounds are the immune suppressed, and it is incredibly unlikely that omicron developed in one of them.

The vaccine is leaky. It doesn’t stop infection or transmission.

No one ever claimed it would, except for the anti-vax crowd. Infection, transmission, and immunity aren't binary, and over 99% of domain specialists are in agreement on that. So why would you open your post with that claim?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#48

Post by beagle3 »

FourHand451 wrote: post #38
adam_arthur wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, of course. But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling. Covid is here forever, and that's life.

> But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point. Plenty of people live their whole lives without catching smallpox or polio. We have/can develop effective vaccines for COVID. Why should it be different?

No people have gone through their life without catching the cold and very few without catching the flu at least once, despite having flu vaccines for a few decades now.

Not all viruses are the same, and sarscov2 is much more like cold/flu than polio.

Specifically, saracov2 has reservoirs in animals. Unless you had an effective vaccine that also works for cats, dogs, deer etc and the ability to actually deploy it (think wild deer all over the US), it’s here to stay.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#49

Post by volta83 »

adam_arthur wrote: post #6
spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Good question.

Excess mortality in the USA and the EU in 2020 were ~470k and ~580k deaths.

The population of the USA and the EU in Jan 2020 was ~329 and ~447 million.

The excess mortality in the USA and the EU in 2020 was ~143 vs ~129 excess deaths per 100.000 inhabitants. The USA had ~10% more excess deaths per capita than the EU.

People living in the EU during 2020 had statistically a significantly better chance of not dying of COVID than people living in the USA, even though COVID hit the EU first, which gave the USA longer time to prepare.

This doesn't really answer your question, because the answer is very personal. Some people were really scared and preferred to trade some freedom for more safety. And well we have many examples of vocal famous people that traded off safety for freedom, and died of COVID. These people would have probably been better off had they lived in the EU, even if they would have been breaking the law and paying fines.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#50

Post by michaelmior »

shmatt wrote: post #15
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Not an official study but just an observation - its very possible to avoid lockdowns so far, by implementing true vaccine passports. Israel did that without any shutdowns during the 4th wave. Basically banning non-vaccinated people from most public areas and by true, that means something you can actually validate isn't fake, while checking for ID at the same time. And also not allowing in un-vaccinated children becau…

> At least here in NY, USA - I have my vaccine passport checked very often

Also in NY (upstate). I can recall my passport being checked only once or twice since the beginning of the pandemic. I assume you're referring to NYC?

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