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It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

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Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#41

Post by Supermancho »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #34
nine_zeros wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not even a joke. Crypto has absolutely helped absorb the inflation.

No, it hasn’t. As money spirals deeply into inflation, crypto holdings and equities will have to be liquidated so that people have money to live off of. This will only feed into the inflation more. Investments haven’t absorbed inflation. They’ve delayed it slightly.

> No, it hasn’t. ... They’ve delayed it slightly.

So it has, by your own admission. You predict a worse eventual outcome, which is not insightful. When this will all end badly is the question, not if. Rome lasted a good long time playing these games.

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#42

Post by seemaze »

ArtDev wrote: post #22

"Household balance sheets are now in a materially better state than they were pre-pandemic". I think this is completely of touch with the realities faced by different slices of society. I am a web developer who was working from home for many years before the pandemic. My experience is not even remotely similar to most people in the US. Edit: this article is written by a hedge fund. So they definitely live in their ow…

"Governments transferred a massive amount of cash to households, more than offsetting lost income from COVID."

I don't understand this calculation either. It does not fit my own experience, or anyone else I know.

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#43

Post by cgio »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #34
nine_zeros wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not even a joke. Crypto has absolutely helped absorb the inflation.

No, it hasn’t. As money spirals deeply into inflation, crypto holdings and equities will have to be liquidated so that people have money to live off of. This will only feed into the inflation more. Investments haven’t absorbed inflation. They’ve delayed it slightly.

You can assume some stickiness on investment decisions. If people end up panic liquidating it would on the one hand deflate crypto on the other indicate lower demand.

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#44

Post by satronaut »

drunkpotato wrote: post #7

WARNING: This site has an obscenely obnoxious terms & conditions blocking modal. I would prefer this link to be removed, it is so egregious. Post something, or don't. Don't put up a blocking modal to force me to read some terms & conditions before reading the actual content.

i really miss the pre 2011 internet sometimes

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#45

Post by emodendroket »

paul7986 wrote: post #23

Seems like all that free money and no one working has definitely caused a supply issue ... yet everyone has tons of money furthering pushing up demand yet supply to meet the demand has shrunk. For those who push for a universal basic income where large groups of people do not work ... do not help produce the supply only push up the demand. Why do you think UBI is still a good idea and you are perfectly fine with how…

Don't have a strong opinion on UBI, but considering the magnitude of the coronavirus pandemic I consider things now to be much better than I would have anticipated.

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#46

Post by konfin »

formercoder wrote: post #17
lisper wrote: post #5

It's a plausible theory, but it doesn't explain the long queues of container ships waiting to be unloaded.

Demand shocks would manifest themselves as bottlenecks in different places along the supply chain as supply attempted to catch up.

We're not seeing increased throughput.

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#47

Post by boringg »

arthurcolle wrote: post #10
throwaway2331 wrote: post #6

For anyone scratching their head on what "MP3" is: monetary policy 3, i.e. "helicopter money," i.e. "the government be handin out them stimmies," i.e. the government injected COVID-19 relief funds into the economy, giving an across-the-board increase in demand for goods & services, but there aren't enough "goods & services" to keep up with this demand.

Thank god we have crypto & NFTs to help people use all this free cash

Oh I figure he's being super sarcastic and saying that all that money went into propping up prices in NFTs and crypto that will at some point show their inherent worth. Maybe I read it wrong compared to all the other commenters

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#48

Post by bezalmighty »

evergrande wrote: post #29
arthurcolle wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank god we have crypto & NFTs to help people use all this free cash

Actually, that's a good point. Inflation would be even worse if that cash was going into physical goods and services. The government now has an incentive to leave crypto alone aside from providing clarity.

In the macro economic sense, fiat money isn't 'used up' or 'locked away' when you buy something like crypto, it's transferred from your account to someone else's bank account. Worse, it goes through the process of fractional reserve banking and multiplies about ~10x after changing hands repeatedly.

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#49

Post by billylindeman »

mattnewton wrote: post #11
P00RL3N0 wrote: post #4

I'm honestly surprised inflation hasn't been worse than what we've already seen. 10-year treasury yields are still well below their 2019 levels and are currently below their levels from Q2 of this year.

I’m not an economist, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that the CPI is gamed somehow, or at least the official government numbers do not reflect the bubble of the US I live in. My friends and family are seeing record wages and investment growth, but when my generation cohort looks at housing and all the numbers there are proportionally even higher, and people are selling 3 year old cars for nearly the nominal price…

CPI is almost certainly gamed.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

#50

Post by a_bonobo »

EdwardDiego wrote: post #40

> Further, those who left the labor force during COVID don’t seem particularly likely to come back, as most say they don’t want a job, and many are over 65 and are likely permanently retired Who was asked, and who did the asking to arrive at "most say"?

Exactly! The data makes the opposite point.

https://hbr.org/2021/09/who-is-driving-the-great-resignation

>Employees between 30 and 45 years old have had the greatest increase in resignation rates, with an average increase of more than 20% between 2020 and 2021.

>Interestingly, resignation rates also fell for those in the 60 to 70 age group

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