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A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

economist.com

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Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#41

I have some bad news for "housing advocates": More housing will never be the solution to the homeless problem. You want to see a lot of drug users and homeless people? You'll find them in areas of dense housing. Secondly, there is no "housing shortage". You're just looking in the wrong place. That's like saying there is a shortage of air in outer space.

In the interest of making your argument stronger, it may be worth addressing that when folks discuss housing shortages, they mean "affordable housing shortages".

It's generally good policy to argue towards the strongest and most charitable interpretation of a counter argument if your goal is to persuade.

As a counter to your statement: I believe the crux of the issue is not just more housing, though having more housing available for low and middle class workers is important, but the fact that we (the US) as a country have a bit of a paradox in how we think about hosing:

1. We generally want everyone to be able to afford to have some kind of shelter.

2. We expect all real estate to increase in value over time.

We can't have both, but until we change how we think about real estate and it's role as an asset, we're unlikely to have a robust, long term solution to a lack of housing that's affordable to the average worker.

Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#42
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. While I think there is an argument to be made that many of SF's/California's policies are counterproductive (e.g. treating all theft The same thing is happening in Austin. As a liberal city in Texas with relatively homeless-friendly policies, it was been well-documented that many rural areas in Texas are giving their homeless one-way bus tickets to Austin. So we're left with the dilemma that relatively liber…

The $900 felony rule keeps being brought up on HN, but the felony amount for Texas is $2500. Clearly something other than the misdemeanor/felony classification is at play.

The difference is that Chesa Boudin, SF's DA, won't prosecute those misdemeanors (and often won't even prosecute felonies).

> “We will not prosecute cases involving quality-of-life crimes,” the DA, Chesa Boudin, said in an interview while he was campaigning for office. “Crimes such as public camping, offering or soliciting sex, public urination, blocking a sidewalk, etc., should not and will not be prosecuted.” Despite that — or maybe because of it — he was elected. [1]

> The initiative set a threshold of $950 for shoplifting to be considered a misdemeanor, which doesn't prompt law enforcement to make an arrest, rather than a felony, which could incur harsh penalties like jail time. "Some people calculate, 'Hey, you know, I don't want to go over the $950, so let me steal $949 worth of property,'" Scott said. "If it's a felony, our officers can take action," he added. "But if it's a misdemeanor, that arrest has to be a private person's arrest. And that makes a difference because they have to be willing to do that." [2]

[1] https://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/559465-the-litt...

[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/after-san-francisco-sho...

Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#43
post #29

("in San Francisco") From 2005 to 2020 the estimated number of unsheltered homeless people nearly doubled, even as homelessness declined nationwide. One possible explanation: California has become the dumping ground for the nation's homeless population. We have a nationwide shortage of housing. Both in person and online, I continue to hear homeless people plan to move someplace relatively warm and dry while stuck on…

Who came up with the hypothesis that California is the dumping ground for the nation's homeless? I'd like to know if it stands up to scrutiny. California itself has a population which is the size of a medium sized European country. It is large enough to have a sizable homeless population. If you are homeless are your chances of getting food and services better in the central valley or in SF? Also, are there significa…

CA has 1/2 the population of homeless in the US but only 1/8 of total population. The eastern seaboard has close to half the US population but obviously cannot have nearly the same rate of homeless.

Something is at play, though it need not be anything too complicated. Good weather and significant resources dedicated to making the homeless comfortable make California the obvious destination.

There are possibly network effects within homeless communities that are hard for outsiders to understand as well.

Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#44
post #7

Since I moved out of SF I’ve wondered if there will ever be some public epiphany that with their well-intentioned policies they’ve reinforced what they most wanted to destroy: a society of the haves and have-nots.

Much better when the have-nots are out of sight

Unironically yes.

Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#45
post #29

("in San Francisco") From 2005 to 2020 the estimated number of unsheltered homeless people nearly doubled, even as homelessness declined nationwide. One possible explanation: California has become the dumping ground for the nation's homeless population. We have a nationwide shortage of housing. Both in person and online, I continue to hear homeless people plan to move someplace relatively warm and dry while stuck on…

Who came up with the hypothesis that California is the dumping ground for the nation's homeless? I'd like to know if it stands up to scrutiny. California itself has a population which is the size of a medium sized European country. It is large enough to have a sizable homeless population. If you are homeless are your chances of getting food and services better in the central valley or in SF? Also, are there significa…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/08/21/nevada...

There's multi-billion dollar lawsuits going on because it's been documented as a policy of nevada hospitals.

Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#46
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[citation needed]

https://hsh.sfgov.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/FINAL-PIT-R... is full of a lot of good data.

Catch-22:

Top cited primary cause of homelessness: "Lost Job" (26%)

Top cited obstacle to obtaining employment: "No Permanent Address" (28%)

Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#47

("in San Francisco") From 2005 to 2020 the estimated number of unsheltered homeless people nearly doubled, even as homelessness declined nationwide. One possible explanation: California has become the dumping ground for the nation's homeless population. We have a nationwide shortage of housing. Both in person and online, I continue to hear homeless people plan to move someplace relatively warm and dry while stuck on…

[citation needed]

The article itself says that 30% of the homeless people say that they were already homeless before they arrived.

Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#48

This is mostly a BS article that picks up a few facts to come to a conclusion while ignoring other facts like the gentrification of a very small area that triggers a lot of those problems. San Francisco has a lot of problems but it seems the article was written with the conclusion then went out hunting for facts to match that conclusion.

I really don't think "gentrification of a very small area" is at all the reason for SF's astounding rate of homelessness, robbery, violent crime, and low rate of prosecution for crime.

There's plenty of info online on Chesa Boudin, who is largely responsible for accelerating this (whereas an opposite DA could have tried to stop the descent into lawlessness).

Re: A cautionary tale from the streets of San Francisco

#49
post #38
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who came up with the hypothesis that California is the dumping ground for the nation's homeless? I'd like to know if it stands up to scrutiny. California itself has a population which is the size of a medium sized European country. It is large enough to have a sizable homeless population. If you are homeless are your chances of getting food and services better in the central valley or in SF? Also, are there significa…

I too would like to see some real numbers behind this. But I will say that I took greyhounds and amtrak in / out of CA a lot growing up in the bay area and I had numerous experiences talking to homeless folks who had been put on the train or bus by law enforcement in counties outside CA for destinations including SF and San Diego. I never experienced the inverse of homeless folks getting shipped out of CA. Always stu…

This article is fascinating, and surprising:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2017/dec/...

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