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People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

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Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#41

Post by notreallyserio »

helen___keller wrote: post #36
motohagiography wrote: post #17

"Jumpers," as described mostly just lacked a fear of consequences of being wrong and were presented with an incentive to guess. Not to be conspiratorial, but one can't help but notice a recent preoccupation in mainstream outlets with pathologizing conspiracy theorists, dissenters, and now, "jumpers." Referencing Khaneman and Tversky's "system 1 and system 2" from their bestseller Thinking Fast and Slow without credit…

> Not to be conspiratorial, but one can't help but notice a recent preoccupation in mainstream outlets with pathologizing conspiracy theorists, dissenters, and now, "jumpers." No conspiracies needed. QAnon type conspiracies are more visible than ever (as they get blown up on social media) and personally I've seemed to notice a pretty big uptick in 'uncle so and so went off the deep end so we had to cut off communicat…

> I've seemed to notice a pretty big uptick in 'uncle so and so went off the deep end so we had to cut off communication' type stories.

I wonder how long that sort of cutting off has been happening in the past. I know there are members of my extended family I don’t associate with due to their crazy beliefs, but I haven’t talked about it.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#42

Post by crazy_horse »

version_five wrote: post #38
motohagiography wrote: post #17

"Jumpers," as described mostly just lacked a fear of consequences of being wrong and were presented with an incentive to guess. Not to be conspiratorial, but one can't help but notice a recent preoccupation in mainstream outlets with pathologizing conspiracy theorists, dissenters, and now, "jumpers." Referencing Khaneman and Tversky's "system 1 and system 2" from their bestseller Thinking Fast and Slow without credit…

I've always felt like the belief in a large group of "conspiracy theorists" is probably one of the biggest "conspiracy theories". A friend of a relative is an apparent flat earther - my relative is always saying things like "oh you wouldn't believe what this guy thinks, he says the world is actually shaped like a UN map, what a goof". In this situation, which of the two is actually the more gullible? From the situati…

Read the conspiracy subreddit and get back with us.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#43

Post by HelixEndeavor »

crazy_horse wrote: post #42
version_five wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always felt like the belief in a large group of "conspiracy theorists" is probably one of the biggest "conspiracy theories". A friend of a relative is an apparent flat earther - my relative is always saying things like "oh you wouldn't believe what this guy thinks, he says the world is actually shaped like a UN map, what a goof". In this situation, which of the two is actually the more gullible? From the situati…

Read the conspiracy subreddit and get back with us.

Go outside and get back to us.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#44

Post by boringg »

willvarfar wrote: post #2

The article opens with a couple of examples of people allegedly not doing research: 1. Most people make two trips or fewer to a dealership before buying a car 2. when picking a doctor, many individuals use recommendations from friends and family rather than consulting other health care professionals or “formal sources” such as employers, articles or Web sites And, of course, the last person I would look to for object…

I think the bias on this comment thread would lead most people here to be well researched and not do the two things you mentioned. I wouldn't buy a car without research. The example of a doctor is more fraught - in the US I met the doctor and would have changed if I didn't read them and believe them to be competent in my judgement (And the institution I went to had already a high bar for quality).

I think what is missing from their comment is that people go to do those things without doing prior research. In the case which you go to the car salesman once, you have already done your research - same with the doctor.

I know people who would exhibit the behavior without doing the prior research. I am not sure if they believe the car salesman or not, I can't read their mind.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#45

Post by depaya »

version_five wrote: post #38
motohagiography wrote: post #17

"Jumpers," as described mostly just lacked a fear of consequences of being wrong and were presented with an incentive to guess. Not to be conspiratorial, but one can't help but notice a recent preoccupation in mainstream outlets with pathologizing conspiracy theorists, dissenters, and now, "jumpers." Referencing Khaneman and Tversky's "system 1 and system 2" from their bestseller Thinking Fast and Slow without credit…

I've always felt like the belief in a large group of "conspiracy theorists" is probably one of the biggest "conspiracy theories". A friend of a relative is an apparent flat earther - my relative is always saying things like "oh you wouldn't believe what this guy thinks, he says the world is actually shaped like a UN map, what a goof". In this situation, which of the two is actually the more gullible? From the situati…

You are being way too charitable. While there certainly are people that fall into the category you claim... there are many who are full blown Jewish space laser, government ice wall, lizard people shadow government, 5g microchip tracker crazies.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#46

Post by helen___keller »

notreallyserio wrote: post #41
helen___keller wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not to be conspiratorial, but one can't help but notice a recent preoccupation in mainstream outlets with pathologizing conspiracy theorists, dissenters, and now, "jumpers." No conspiracies needed. QAnon type conspiracies are more visible than ever (as they get blown up on social media) and personally I've seemed to notice a pretty big uptick in 'uncle so and so went off the deep end so we had to cut off communicat…

> I've seemed to notice a pretty big uptick in 'uncle so and so went off the deep end so we had to cut off communication' type stories. I wonder how long that sort of cutting off has been happening in the past. I know there are members of my extended family I don’t associate with due to their crazy beliefs, but I haven’t talked about it.

My personal opinion is that the pandemic offered a unique opportunity for hidden 'crazy beliefs' to expose themselves.

If Uncle Bob in 2017 believed that the federal reserve was run by a cabal hoarding 90% of our tax money to enrich themselves, nobody would really care unless he feels the need to bring it up in every conversation to the detriment of normal human interaction.

If Uncle Bob in 2020 believes that, he probably also believes that the cabal is using masks to control the population, which causes an immediate conflict when he insists on going unmasked everywhere, including visits to elderly grandma. And then in 2021 that belief probably gets extended to vaccines.

In other words, the pandemic offered a unique opportunity for conspiracy theories to conflict with day-to-day life in a way that wasn't true before the pandemic.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#47

Post by OrvalWintermute »

civilized wrote: post #20
willvarfar wrote: post #2

The article opens with a couple of examples of people allegedly not doing research: 1. Most people make two trips or fewer to a dealership before buying a car 2. when picking a doctor, many individuals use recommendations from friends and family rather than consulting other health care professionals or “formal sources” such as employers, articles or Web sites And, of course, the last person I would look to for object…

My wife and I have made one trip for every car that we bought. 1. We wanted a used Honda Civic. We found a used Honda Civic online, at a good price relative to Blue Book. We went to the dealership and bought the Honda Civic. 2. We wanted a used Honda CR-V. We found a used Honda CR-V online, at a good price relative to Blue Book. We went to the dealership and bought the Honda CR-V. Both cars have been great. No need t…

1. I researched car reliability, resale value, makes and models and determined that a Honda Accord best met my requirements.

2. There was exactly one Honda dealership within driving distance in the state where I wanted to buy the vehicle

3. I acquired this vehicle.

Later on, I was told that this was actually a Japanese Honda, and not an American Honda, and that the allegation was that although the same design, the Japanese Honda had superior reliability records and less variance around fittings, because the Japanese teams had a great deal of experience around assembly (at that time). More than 20 years later I am still driving the same vehicle, and I've had no major issues of any type.

>1. You're not taking account of the opportunity cost, the things you could be doing that you're not because you're stuck on this one thing

I do appreciate the point you made - there is an opportunity cost to your thinking, and overly focusing on one thing may be contrary. If I have learned anything from thinking about SV business models, it is that attention is a limited resource. Every moment we spend overanalyzing one thing, is time spent less on something more productive.

> There is such a thing as overthinking / analysis paralysis, where your thinking actually gets worse the more you obsess about something. You may be better off unplugging, taking a walk, and coming back with a clear mind. You may be able to make a quick decision that's reasonably close to optimal and ends the sinking of your time into this one particular thing.

"paralysis by analysis" is definitely a real thing. Although I believe it is important to go through the cognitive exercise of analysis, it can be counter-productive. Saw this at a workplace or two where budgets to execute projects were highly limited, so staff would analyze-to-death options for fairly low dollar activities. Spent more on analysis of paper projects by a factor, than actual project execution.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#48

Post by SamBam »

version_five wrote: post #38
motohagiography wrote: post #17

"Jumpers," as described mostly just lacked a fear of consequences of being wrong and were presented with an incentive to guess. Not to be conspiratorial, but one can't help but notice a recent preoccupation in mainstream outlets with pathologizing conspiracy theorists, dissenters, and now, "jumpers." Referencing Khaneman and Tversky's "system 1 and system 2" from their bestseller Thinking Fast and Slow without credit…

I've always felt like the belief in a large group of "conspiracy theorists" is probably one of the biggest "conspiracy theories". A friend of a relative is an apparent flat earther - my relative is always saying things like "oh you wouldn't believe what this guy thinks, he says the world is actually shaped like a UN map, what a goof". In this situation, which of the two is actually the more gullible? From the situati…

> From the situations I hear described, it's pretty clear the guy just likes to tease, and enjoys the "intellectual exercise"

This was the default assumption for plenty of people when they first hear about real flat earthers, but unfortunately it appears to quickly devolve into actual, very firm beliefs for many people.

This whole phenomenon of "LARPing" your way into a conspiracy (I'm going to start posting about the Jewish cabal controlling the world because it's "edgy," it triggers people online, and it's a fun intellectual exercise to see if I can gather as many pieces of evidence as possible) and then actually believing it seems to honestly explain how a lot of these conspiracy theories end up gaining so much momentum.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#49

Post by notreallyserio »

denton-scratch wrote: post #33
cryptica wrote: post #7

Conspiracy theories aren't 100% irrational. It's irrational to assume that they are all 100% wrong and don't contain any correct or at least useful information. People do make plans together and influential people do tend to hang out together... It's not illogical to assume that they hatch plans to maintain the social order in a way that works for them and that some of these plans will be at the expense of the genera…

> Conspiracy theories aren't 100% irrational. The term is often used to refer to implausible "theories" that make very strong claims, but have zero supporting evidence and make zero testable predictions. Of course, it's true that people conspire all the time. Implausible "theories" that make strong claims are exciting and entertaining. They're fun to play with. They become a problem when they go viral, among groups o…

> They become a problem when they go viral, among groups of people with limited critical thinking skills.

Agreed, and to expand on this: I believe another problem is that these conspiracy theorists also believe that they have secret knowledge that the man doesn’t want you to have. Finally, they are smarter about something than those folks with education and success.

This makes them an easy target for real conspiracies, conspiracies by folks that merely want to take their money. See, for example, the anti-GMO movement and specifically the anti-GMO seed packs you can buy.

Re: People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors

#50

Post by tinco »

version_five wrote: post #38
motohagiography wrote: post #17

"Jumpers," as described mostly just lacked a fear of consequences of being wrong and were presented with an incentive to guess. Not to be conspiratorial, but one can't help but notice a recent preoccupation in mainstream outlets with pathologizing conspiracy theorists, dissenters, and now, "jumpers." Referencing Khaneman and Tversky's "system 1 and system 2" from their bestseller Thinking Fast and Slow without credit…

I've always felt like the belief in a large group of "conspiracy theorists" is probably one of the biggest "conspiracy theories". A friend of a relative is an apparent flat earther - my relative is always saying things like "oh you wouldn't believe what this guy thinks, he says the world is actually shaped like a UN map, what a goof". In this situation, which of the two is actually the more gullible? From the situati…

Something like this happened on Reddit, with the /r/the_donald subreddit. At first it was jokes at expense of the man, then it transformed into jokingly supporting his presidency. Then it became some quasi-intellectual support of his presidency. Then it became actual non-ironic serious support of his presidency through memes. And then when it actually happened, it became a sort of cult worship site that was eventually banned for supporting the more extreme viewpoints that have been attributed to his supporters.

I like the idea of intellectual exercise, and I enjoyed reading the sub when it was just fun and games. I stopped reading it when they started to seriously support his election. But people for sure lose themselves in the delusions, especially if some part of it connects to them. It's like some sort of cheat code into their minds. I have friends who fell to the QAnon situation. If you told them 5 years ago that our government officials were satanic ritualistic baby eaters, they'd laugh you out of the room and tell you to have another beer. It doesn't really work that way. No way in any serious debate could you ever convince them of this. But now, after they've fell down the rabbit hole some of them seriously unironically believe these things could actually be true.

It's like they saying goes: If you open up your mind too much, your brains will fall out.

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