Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality • Hacker News Board

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#41

Post by bulla » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 3:13 AM UTC

abeppu wrote: post #3

Maybe this is crazy, but should we be thinking of satellite connectivity the same way we think about public utilities? - For a lot of public utilities, the point is that building several parallel sets of infrastructure would be really wasteful. It makes sense to build it once, hopefully well, and let everyone use it. - One might think this only is true of strictly terrestrial infrastructure like phone landlines or wa…

>should we be thinking of satellite connectivity the same way we think about public utilities?

Yes. This is something a lot of people are interested in. https://muskdeer.blogspot.com/2021/10/rethinking-gis.html

In fact India's Remote Sensing Data Policy has specifically recognized this data as a 'public good'.

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#42

Post by wolverine876 » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 3:57 AM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #38

abeppu wrote: post #3

Maybe this is crazy, but should we be thinking of satellite connectivity the same way we think about public utilities? - For a lot of public utilities, the point is that building several parallel sets of infrastructure would be really wasteful. It makes sense to build it once, hopefully well, and let everyone use it. - One might think this only is true of strictly terrestrial infrastructure like phone landlines or wa…

If we had, we definitely wouldn’t have gotten the low cost of the Starlink constellation. The industry experts, including Tim F, didn’t think such a thing was feasible. I’ve talked to a Guidance and Navigation expert (a civil servant working for the federal government for space systems) that didn’t think droneship landing (which SpaceX relies on for making reusable rockets—and thus Starlink—economical) was possible.…

> When you have one big system and no competition, you get status quo solutions.

GPS, moon landings, space stations, space shuttles, and most of the rest of the history of space are hardly status quo solutions! It's not like space has been stuck, waiting for Elon Musk to save the day.

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#43

Post by wolverine876 » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 4:01 AM UTC

xyzzyz wrote: post #6

abeppu wrote: post #3

Maybe this is crazy, but should we be thinking of satellite connectivity the same way we think about public utilities? - For a lot of public utilities, the point is that building several parallel sets of infrastructure would be really wasteful. It makes sense to build it once, hopefully well, and let everyone use it. - One might think this only is true of strictly terrestrial infrastructure like phone landlines or wa…

> which is operated by the US military with an annual budget of roughly $1B -- and we can all use it for free. Non-Americans, yes, but Americans pay taxes to use it. In fact, if you replaced tax-funded model with, say, a markup on each receiver, Americans would pay less than they already do, and only those that use it would pay for it. I find both of these things beneficial. > Had the US not provided for civilian acc…

I don't think we can assume one model or another, government or business, would work better; do we have any evidence? GPS has worked out pretty well.

> if you replaced tax-funded model with, say, a markup on each receiver, Americans would pay less than they already do

What is that based on? Americans pay a few dollars per year.

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#44

Post by reilly3000 » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 4:15 AM UTC

There seems to be a ‘cloud’ play in the satellite space that someone might launch… ie. a provider will run your firmware on their devices in exchange for usage fees. It seems like a good fit for a well-capitalized firm that would allow for a lot of innovation to happen. Amazon already offers satellite management systems via AWS- how long until they start renting out hardware too?

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#45

Post by Robotbeat » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 4:15 AM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #42

Robotbeat wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we had, we definitely wouldn’t have gotten the low cost of the Starlink constellation. The industry experts, including Tim F, didn’t think such a thing was feasible. I’ve talked to a Guidance and Navigation expert (a civil servant working for the federal government for space systems) that didn’t think droneship landing (which SpaceX relies on for making reusable rockets—and thus Starlink—economical) was possible.…

> When you have one big system and no competition, you get status quo solutions. GPS, moon landings, space stations, space shuttles, and most of the rest of the history of space are hardly status quo solutions! It's not like space has been stuck, waiting for Elon Musk to save the day.

I realize that in certain social circles, the idea that Elon has ever done anything useful is met with scorn and laughter, but that’s kind of precisely what happened. NASA and the aerospace primes (including in Europe) had abandoned reuse as impractical due to the lessons learned from Shuttle (and several abortive attempts at reusable launch, like X-33 and others). It took the non-status quo companies like SpaceX (and Masten Space, etc) to prove out reuse.

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#46

Post by mNovak » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 4:42 AM UTC

reilly3000 wrote: post #44

There seems to be a ‘cloud’ play in the satellite space that someone might launch… ie. a provider will run your firmware on their devices in exchange for usage fees. It seems like a good fit for a well-capitalized firm that would allow for a lot of innovation to happen. Amazon already offers satellite management systems via AWS- how long until they start renting out hardware too?

Trying to think what useful things can be done onboard a satellite in only software? If the customer is speccing HW, it would make more sense for AWS to again just sell the resultant data products (assuming sensors) or managed 'satelliteless' services for i.e. comms

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#47

Post by xyzzy21 » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 2:36 PM UTC

It's all the same mistake made during the Dot Com era: "It's all free".

But it's NOT free. The fixed or variable costs might be lower than typically seen before but "smaller" ≠ "zero" just like "large" ≠ "infinite".

It's confusing these that causes most of these types of "entrepreneurship Epic Fails".

You still have to have an infrastructure which has non-zero fixed and variable cost.

When it comes to space (I used to be employed as a rocket scientist at a government Think Tank), the infrastructure costs are absolutely enormous even compared to more modest terrestrial systems. Like many orders of magnitude higher than, say, the entire interstate highway system. And it's because the risks and capital costs are that much higher.

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#48

Post by wolverine876 » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 4:09 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #45

wolverine876 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When you have one big system and no competition, you get status quo solutions. GPS, moon landings, space stations, space shuttles, and most of the rest of the history of space are hardly status quo solutions! It's not like space has been stuck, waiting for Elon Musk to save the day.

I realize that in certain social circles, the idea that Elon has ever done anything useful is met with scorn and laughter, but that’s kind of precisely what happened. NASA and the aerospace primes (including in Europe) had abandoned reuse as impractical due to the lessons learned from Shuttle (and several abortive attempts at reusable launch, like X-33 and others). It took the non-status quo companies like SpaceX (an…

> the idea that Elon has ever done anything useful is met with scorn and laughter

Could you provide an example of someone saying that here? Elsewhere?

> in certain social circles

Is it possible that people have rational ideas that disagree with yours, which should not be dismissed as outcomes of social effects? At best, Musk's personal following seems like by far the strongest social phenomenon involved.

> It took the non-status quo companies like SpaceX (and Masten Space, etc) to prove out reuse.

That wasn't the prior point and therefore wasn't what I responded to. The prior point, as I understood it, was that government is unable to innovate and only business is. Also, SpaceX is now part of the status quo.

Re: Satellite IoT dreams are crashing into reality

#49

Post by Robotbeat » Sat, Oct 23, 2021, 8:35 PM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #48

Robotbeat wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I realize that in certain social circles, the idea that Elon has ever done anything useful is met with scorn and laughter, but that’s kind of precisely what happened. NASA and the aerospace primes (including in Europe) had abandoned reuse as impractical due to the lessons learned from Shuttle (and several abortive attempts at reusable launch, like X-33 and others). It took the non-status quo companies like SpaceX (an…

> the idea that Elon has ever done anything useful is met with scorn and laughter Could you provide an example of someone saying that here? Elsewhere? > in certain social circles Is it possible that people have rational ideas that disagree with yours, which should not be dismissed as outcomes of social effects? At best, Musk's personal following seems like by far the strongest social phenomenon involved. > It took th…

You said, and I quote: “GPS, moon landings, space stations, space shuttles, and most of the rest of the history of space are hardly status quo solutions! It's not like space has been stuck, waiting for Elon Musk to save the day.”

But again, that’s precisely what happened. There was a decades-long, post-Cold-War stagnation in the government-led space industry (to the extent that NASA used a higher inflation rate to calculate aerospace project costs… ie aerospace technology was becoming MORE expensive over time for the same capability), particularly for launch technology (commercial launch was fleeing the US and going to cheaper foreign launchers like Russia), and it was SpaceX who ultimately broke the impasse and proved reusable launch was feasible. It is a huge impact, too. Consider SLS or, more to the point, the reference HLS lander versus Starship, which was selected for NASA’s commercial HLS bid. Starship is approximately 10 times larger in capability than the reference design or Apollo. NASA literally couldn’t afford any other option for Artemis to meet the 2024 landing goal.

SLS vs Starship is a very illustrative comparison of what a single, monolithic, government-led solution vs a more competitive, commercial led solution is.

(And government vs commercial ISN’T a good framing, here. NASA has been super important in commercialization of this stuff by fostering competition, serving as an anchor customer for new entrants, and providing valuable insight and consultation. And even in the Soviet era, there was competition between firms in the Soviet launch sector… single, monolithic solutions are just not a very efficient approach…).