Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#41

Post by rapsey » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:48 AM UTC

raptorraver wrote: post #20

rapsey wrote: post #3

Crypto has never gone through a major economic crisis and when there were short term panics it always dropped significantly. Being without a central bank also means there is no limit to how far it can drop.

Do you mean there haven't been major economic crisis related cryptocurrencies or we don't know what happens to cryptos if (and when) a major, general economic crisis happens in the world? I'm interested in what would happen in the latter case. Probably cryptos would crash even harder but are there cases where people would trust cryptos more than cash in crisis?

In a general one. In a general crash everything tends to drop because everyone is selling assets to cover debts. I can't see crypto doing anything other than drop more than anything has ever dropped.

It would recover later probably if investor confidence is not completely destroyed. Because as we all know, the entire space is still completely without any real world use case and entirely useless other than speculation.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#42

Post by H8crilA » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:49 AM UTC

SRTP wrote: post #30

I'm really amazed at these comments. Every time Bitcoin goes through a major move, the "bubble" crowd comes out of the woodwork, while having done absolutely no effort in understanding what Bitcoin is.

I mean, what is it if not a worse gold? All assets can be roughly divided into few categories: currency, debt, equity, derivatives/bets, collectibles. It's not an equity or debt instrument, it's not a derivative, and it's not a currency as nobody settles transactions in it. It's a collectible (like gold or paintings), with a short history (unlike gold), that delivers zero value for the holder in the meantime (unlike paintings).

(And please spare the tech; people really do understand it, at least to the level that matters)

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#43

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:52 AM UTC

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #23

cm2012 wrote: post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

> It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart... Nobody is universally brilliant. Newton spent as much time on alchemy as he did physics. Maybe NFTs are just the modern alchemy, as they do seem to turn random items into digital gold.

[deleted]

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#44

Post by theknocker » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:53 AM UTC

Michael Burry found a specific, verifiable problem with mortgages. That's how he predicated and capitalized on the 2008 crisis.

What specific problem has he verified that pertains to Bitcoin?

And here's another clue (about life and how the universe actually works): It's probably not a bubble if every idiot you meet prattles on about how it's a bubble. Exuberance can't be irrational if it doesn't exist to begin with.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#45

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:56 AM UTC

wesleywt wrote: post #28

cm2012 wrote: post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

What surprises me is the constant negative drum beat against Bitcoin on Hackernews. Mostly based on speculation.

[deleted]

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#46

Post by ur-whale » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:56 AM UTC

leesalminen wrote: post #21

paulgb wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. Does it, though? I’m on the sidelines, but it seems like all the excitement/money flowing into crypto these days is into blockchains with higher transaction throughput and more advanced smart contract interpreters. I know there are some maxis trying to build things like DeFi and NFTs on Bitcoin but it seems to have really t…

> DeFi and NFTs on Bitcoin There are DeFi and NFT platforms on Bitcoin? I haven’t heard of those. Are you talking about Ethereum?

There are some efforts underway to bring ETH-like smart contracts to BTC, which - if they succeed - will allow all the ETH-powered paraphernalia to happen on top of BTC. But the going is slow.

Other than that, there already are some "NFT's" embedded in the Bitcoin blockchain.

To give you an example of what I mean, consider the Genesis block, which, while its reward can't be spent still has a private key attached to it.

I'm willing to bet that the day the person who owns that key (Satoshi, assuming he's still alive) decides to put it up for auction, the bids won't be zero :)

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#47

Post by ekianjo » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:57 AM UTC

cm2012 wrote: post #12

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

> It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

Many things have actually no intrinsic value (like art) yet don't lose value over time that much.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#48

Post by yardstick » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:57 AM UTC

ur-whale wrote: post #33

Rather balanced article, but like many fails to mention one really important aspect of Bitcoin: There is a IMO a very tangible market demand for a financial product that allows one to completely shield value from the myriad of value-eroding propositions that have been baked into the traditional financial system to essentially bleed you dry on a long enough timeline. - "management" fees - capital gain taxes - death ta…

Some of the items you listed apply to crypto assets just like regular assets. It’s just the enforcement of the laws hasn’t been as consistent as with other physical financial assets.

Specifically:

“ - capital gain taxes - death taxes (inheritance taxes) - asset seizures (divorces, bankruptcy, random court decisions against you, Cyprus Bank Disaster [1], etc...)”

And

> The fact that some of the things listed above will be viewed by some as "morally reprehensible" is irrelevant to the conversation: moral or not, the demand still exists.

Isn’t it more a legal issue than moral? Evading tax is a criminal matter I thought.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#49

Post by ekianjo » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:58 AM UTC

rapsey wrote: post #3

Crypto has never gone through a major economic crisis and when there were short term panics it always dropped significantly. Being without a central bank also means there is no limit to how far it can drop.

> never gone through a major economic crisis

COVID and the massive supply of dollars since last year is not one?

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#50

Post by WoodenChair » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:58 AM UTC

ur-whale wrote: post #33

Rather balanced article, but like many fails to mention one really important aspect of Bitcoin: There is a IMO a very tangible market demand for a financial product that allows one to completely shield value from the myriad of value-eroding propositions that have been baked into the traditional financial system to essentially bleed you dry on a long enough timeline. - "management" fees - capital gain taxes - death ta…

> There is a IMO a very tangible market demand for a financial product that allows one to completely shield value from the myriad of value-eroding propositions that have been baked into the traditional financial system to essentially bleed you dry on a long enough timeline. - "management" fees - capital gain taxes - death taxes (inheritance taxes) - asset seizures (divorces, bankruptcy, random court decisions against you, Cyprus Bank Disaster [1], etc...) - inflation (govt mandated or otherwise) - etc ...

Bitcoin does not shield you from capital gains taxes [0] or asset seizures since it's classified as property by the government. At least not in the US.

0: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/19/do-you-owe-taxes-on-bitcoin....