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Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

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41–50 of 138 posts

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#41
There is more than vaccinated vs unvaccinated. There is also naturally acquired immunity. The best available science points to many interesting things you may not be aware of:

"Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection". https://archive.is/RlwBc

"Researchers from Washington University in St. Louis also reported last month that 11 months after a mild infection immune cells were still capable of producing protective antibodies. The authors concluded that prior Covid infection induces a “robust” and “long-lived humoral immune response,” leading some scientists to suggest that natural immunity is probably lifelong." https://archive.is/DkgW2

"Researchers from the Cleveland Clinic also published a study recently of 1,359 people previously infected with Covid who were unvaccinated. None of the subjects subsequently became infected, leading the researchers to conclude that “individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination.”" https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...

A recent study found that the current vaccines do next to nothing to help the body’s CD8 T-cells, which is the key to long-term immunity. https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37...

“A natural infection induces hundreds upon hundreds of antibodies against all proteins of the virus, including the envelope, the membrane, the nucleocapsid, and the spike. Dozens upon dozens of these antibodies neutralize the virus when encountered again. Additionally, because of the immune system exposure to these numerous proteins (epitomes), our T cells mount a robust memory, as well. Our T cells are the ‘marines’ of the immune system and the first line of defense against pathogens. T cell memory to those infected with SARSCOV1 is at 17 years and running still.” said Dr. Ryan Cole, a Mayo Clinic-trained pathologist who runs one of the largest independent laboratories in the US who has spent the past 16 months examining and culturing SARS-CoV-2 specimens. https://archive.is/o/4suZi/https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/ho...

A national survey shows 68% of Indians have SARSCoV2 antibodies, compared to 25% in January and 1% last spring. Experts say this is why cases and deaths have plunged so fast since May, even though few Indians are fully vaccinated. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/21/covid-19-antib...

Protection of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is similar to that of BNT162b2 vaccine protection. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21255670v...

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#42
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my own experience, I see that vaccinated people are less fearful of mixing with large groups of people. That's one way the vaccinated can be more easily infected. It's not a physiological effect but I think it's probably the crux of the whole issue here.

Behaviour-wise this is definitely true - not for everyone, but many. But I don't think it wouldn't matter for the comparison because they're looking at rates of serious illness, rather than absolute number of people catching it. Saying that, if seriousness of disease is related to initial exposure amount, perhaps being vaxxed and overly brave could mean you get a higher initial dose?

OK thanks. I thought the major concern was the number of people getting it not the number of severe cases...

I'm not really sure why it is this way. I would think lessening the spread of it would be the highest priority.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#43
post #13

There is a similar story in the UK. This isn't all that surprising for the UK at least (I'm not familiar with how Israel is doing things): "freedom day" was now a month ago so of course more infections will happen. The questions now are: will we see a variant that can escape the vaccines? Will the vaccines becomes significantly less effective at stopping hospitalisation/death within a few months?

What is freedom day?

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#44
post #19
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a purely scientific point a view, there is no reason for the post above (from ajay-b) to be downvoted.

Wild assertions without data or references are simply trolling.

There's nothing wild about that kind of questions. We know that sometimes vaccines are the cause of re-infections (for inactivated agents vaccines): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1383764/

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#45

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

In addition to the clear example of Simpson’s paradox presented here: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... , I offer you the following intuition: if only 4 people in Israel were unvaccinated and 2 were in the hospital with 2 vaccinated patients, would you consider the vaccine effective? It’s important to look at the right numbers.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#46

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I think it's still concerning that 60% of hospitalizations are vaccinated patients. Even if 79% of the population is vaccinated.

Best case, the Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective at preventing serious illness and death. This has been known since the beginning.

If you vaccinate 100% of the total population, you'll find that 100% of hospitalised and dead patients have been fully vaccinated.

TL;DR: This is only concerning if one doesn't properly grasp statistics. Most of us (self included) fail at this.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#47

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

[deleted]

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#48

Before anyone draws the wrong conclusions... 78.8% of the population above 12 are vaccinated. The remaining 21.2% make up about 40% of all hospitalizations. The vaccines are incredibly effective and the situation in Israel does by no means indicate that they are not. Edit: Fixed 11.2% to 21.2%.

I will get downvoted... but really, 60% of the hospitalizations come from vaccinated population, does that really count as "incredibly effective"? Is that really what people were hoping for when Pfizer & Moderna announced 94%+ effectiveness?

[deleted]

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A possible mechanism I have seen mentioned is Antibody Dependent Enhancement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement I am not a biologist and have no opinion on the matter, I have just seen it mentioned online.

ADE can also happen with exposure to a virus itself, such as happens with Dengue fever. It's not something strictly limited to vaccines.

Correct. That is also mentioned in the reference with video I posted.

Re: Highly Vaccinated Israel Is Seeing a Dramatic Surge in New Covid Cases

#50

Things that matter a lot these days: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox Someone that's done some analysis using the above mental models: https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...

Notwithstanding any fallacies that may exist (can you point out a specific one?), the best available scientific evidence suggests that natural immunity is much stronger than the vaccines against COVID:

"Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection". https://archive.is/RlwBc

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