Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall • Hacker News Board

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#41

Post by beej71 » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 7:08 PM UTC

kragen wrote: post #39

crikli wrote: post #9

There is precedent, sorta, in aviation: 100LL hit $4.50 a couple years back and is now between $5-$8. Cessna started developing an electric 172 in 2010: http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/11/cessna-developing-elect... I say "sorta" because it's not an industry-wide movement.

I think the energy economics are different for planes and cars, though. There's no equivalent of regenerative braking, or for that matter stop-and-go traffic, for planes. And adding weight to a car doesn't make it use more energy at high speeds, which is how an old van can get 15 miles per gallon while a fully loaded semi truck gets 10 miles per gallon. Adding weight to a plane does make it use more energy. The effec…

> There's no equivalent of regenerative braking

Point the nose down with the power off?

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#42

Post by corin_ » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 7:11 PM UTC

jdietrich wrote: post #32

Here in the UK, gas (petrol) is well over $8 per US gallon (£1.30 per litre) and has been for some time. It hasn't been less than 79p a litre for nearly a decade. Most hybrid and electric cars are bought for use in London, where they are exempt from the $16 per day charge to drive into the city centre. I live in a large (>2 million population) city in the north of England and have never seen an electric car here.

I lived in Oxford until 6 weeks ago, and while I rarely noticed electric cars (I didn't honestly spend much time paying attention to what was driving around), what was noticeable was that carparks around the city had got electric "pumps", for people to recharge at. Not that I ever saw one being used, mind.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#43

Post by hugh3 » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 7:13 PM UTC

Eliezer wrote: post #36

The alternative to pure electric isn't pure gas, it's hybrid electric vehicles. You can't beat the worst alternative to win, you've got to beat the best alternative. That alone makes me not trust the rest of the study.

Indeed. It also overlooks the fact that the price of fuel is only the second most important factor in determining electric car adoption, with the most important being electric car technology.

Electric cars are getting better rapidly, and I'll probably get one eventually (preferably with a fuel-burning backup motor like a Chevy Volt) but I'm waiting for the technology to get better and cheaper, not for the price of fuel to reach some magic number.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#44

Post by VladRussian » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 8:04 PM UTC

to me the situation reminds the 1976 when somebody needed to build and start selling usable personal computer, ie. Apple. We have all the components in place, yet attempts to convert regular car into electric (amateurs as well as Tesla/Nissan, etc...) clearly show limitations of that approach. The 500kg 30KW $10K block of batteries is the centerpiece (or spread along the floor) around which the car needs to be (re)designed the way it is designed now around gas engine and transmission. Designing for the pure electric one would get the main things taken care about - weight and shape resulting in 200+ miles range car.

Saw here, on 101, a guy driving at ~60mph a bare metal 4 wheel electric drive platform (with a couple of kind of roll-over bars) and it strangely evoked associations with Wozniak's Apple I.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#45

Post by rdl » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 8:19 PM UTC

crikli wrote: post #9

There is precedent, sorta, in aviation: 100LL hit $4.50 a couple years back and is now between $5-$8. Cessna started developing an electric 172 in 2010: http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/11/cessna-developing-elect... I say "sorta" because it's not an industry-wide movement.

I'd rather go with a diesel engine for small craft, and turboprop or turbofans for bigger/faster stuff. Jet a is widely available and cheap.

Isn't 100LL twice that in Europe?

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#46

Post by rdl » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 8:26 PM UTC

khafra wrote: post #35

tansey wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Renting a car sucks. Now that I don't quite understand. I find renting a car to be a lot of fun. The salespeople are always super friendly, they get you in and out quick, the price is relatively low (~$70/day after taxes), and you usually get to drive a brand new model. Maybe doing it once per month would be a headache for some. Personally, I like it and if it saved me money to drive an electric car, I would happil…

It's fun, if you're on a trip and have a lot of time. But as a semi-regular thing: - I have to drive to the car rental place unless I live close enough for a pickup, in which case I have to wait around to be picked up. - I have to arrange my trip so that I both depart and return during the rental place's hours. If I come back late, I have to pay a penalty and either take time off from work the next morning or drive t…

If you are a member of the frequent renter programs (e.g. Hertz gold club) it is a lot easier, too -- no need to fill in paperwork or even talk to a human each time, since your car should be waiting for you in a stall. Still not quite zip car.

The thing I hate about zip car I'd that the cars aren't maintained between users, so they are often dirty.

The thing I hate about both is that I like having a comprehensive trauma kit, tool kit, zombie/civil insurrection, wifi and inverter, nav system, etc. in my car, so it is not really convenient to transfer all of that between vehicles.

My solution will be company shared f-350 diesel and leased electric, shared at the office for work/personal use.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#47

Post by Legion » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 8:29 PM UTC

roel_v wrote: post #7

Legion wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Different culture. Different daily life transportation realities.

This is claimed very often. I did some very basic research here: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2766844 (in a related discussion). In short, I don't see a substantial reason to believe that Americans drive all that more than Europeans do, and certainly not enough to say that the US switch to electric would happen significantly below the current gas price in Europe. (there may be other factors - Americans' genera…

You're only thinking of cars, and only comparing car use.

You're neglecting things like the fact that plenty of people who might be car commuters in the US would statistically be public transit users in Germany. So, fuel cost pressures that would turn a German to public transit couldn't do the same for an American who lacks similar access to public transit. Hence the potential for the American's increased desire for fixing the problem at the automobile level.

Whether it's true or not, I can't say. I am only commenting that comparing car commute times between the two countries doesn't really begin to address the question.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#48

Post by felipemnoa » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 8:36 PM UTC

kayoone wrote: post #26

ralfd wrote: post #3

Oh really? The current gasoline price in Germany is around 1.588 Euro per liter which is 6.01 Euro per gallon (stupid imperial unit) or glorious 8,57 Dollar. Still no electric cars.

yeah, wanted to write exactly that. US citizen cry about gasoline prices while most europeans already pay around $8 per gallon. Different driving habits ? Different studies show thats not true (posted in the comments here as well) Still i dont see electric cars becoming mainstream in the near future

I guess that is the main difference. US citizens are not willing to pay for more than 4 dollars and will start looking for ways to decrease that. You guys are already accustomed to $8 somehow. It really is a lot of money, don't know how you can afford it.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#49

Post by dlokshin » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 8:41 PM UTC

jdietrich wrote: post #32

Here in the UK, gas (petrol) is well over $8 per US gallon (£1.30 per litre) and has been for some time. It hasn't been less than 79p a litre for nearly a decade. Most hybrid and electric cars are bought for use in London, where they are exempt from the $16 per day charge to drive into the city centre. I live in a large (>2 million population) city in the north of England and have never seen an electric car here.

The article is basing itself on market pressure while the UK is an example of regulatory pressure.

Re: Harvard study predicts electric car penetration when gas hits $4.5-$5.5/gall

#50

Post by felipemnoa » Thu, Jul 28, 2011, 8:41 PM UTC

jcslzr wrote: post #28

Has any of you seen "Collapse"? Its a Documentary, and in it this guy states that there is no realistic substitution for oil, and once we run out of it society will collapse. Pretty scary.

If we run out of it all of a sudden yes. We are starting to feel the pain at least here in America and already we are starting to adapt. So no, our society won't collapse. We will find a way, we always do.