What China Wants and Why • Hacker News Board

Re: What China Wants and Why

#41

Post by WastingMyTime89 » Tue, Aug 10, 2021, 5:10 PM UTC

mohanmcgeek wrote: post #39

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #36

Let's conveniently forget the 100 years of the Yuan dynasty ruled by Mongols and the 300 years of the Quing dynasty ruled by the Manchu and pretends that the history of China is the history of the Han. Why would anyone question that? It's really hard to take the article seriously given how much it oversimplifies its premises.

The article does mention both of these facts.

In a way, yes, the article alludes to it in order to prove that China was threatened by the nothern tribes but that's a weird way to qualify 400 years of history.

> "The heartland has always been threatened by the nomadic tribes that live in the north. These tribes weren’t just small groups on sporadic raids. Some were dangerous enough to conquer and rule China: the Mongols ruled for a century, starting in the 1280s, and the Manchus for nearly 250 years, starting around 1650."

Especially considering this comes after this - "Another way to put it: China is the Han, and the only thing they care about is protecting the Han" - which it direcly contradicts.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#42

Post by T-A » Tue, Aug 10, 2021, 5:33 PM UTC

mohanmcgeek wrote: post #40

BelenusMordred wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Silly to ignore the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of fish and oil that everyone in the region is staking a claim to in the South China Sea. Absolutely no one cared in the slightest about it up until vast tracts of oil were discovered and fishing rights in the region started to actually be enforced by militaries.

Or maybe it's the other way? "Oil" is thrown around to get Western "intellectuals" interested..? Maybe China wasn't strong all these years and they were biding their time? "The threat came from this direction last time. We need to secure this frontier" is convincing enough for me.

https://cimsec.org/chinas-claim-spratly-islands-just-mistake...

Re: What China Wants and Why

#43

Post by rat87 » Tue, Aug 10, 2021, 6:31 PM UTC

georgeecollins wrote: post #10

5ersi wrote: post #6

This is apologetic nonsense. China is a nation with nuclear armament and a population 1.4 billion. Nobody can realistically attack and control them, let alone their direct neighbors. What China does is what CCP wants: to stay in power.

China is incredibly strong, but in the last century it suffered from terrible invasions. Yes, it probably can overcome any attack but it makes sense for a strategic thinker to worry that another power would try to attack it again. Think about the US.. Is the US really under threat of invasion? No. But there is a realistic historical concern about a surprise attack that animates US defense policy. Getting attacked and…

There is no realistic historical concern of the US being invaded since WW1, arguably some time before as well.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#44

Post by deepsun » Tue, Aug 10, 2021, 6:32 PM UTC

kwere wrote: post #28

deepsun wrote: post #17

TL;DR Everything China does, like semi-genocide of Uyghurs, is only to protect its agriculturally rich heartland.

No is to keep the CCP afloat, they could care shit about heartland

That's not a TL;DR of the article.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#45

Post by rat87 » Tue, Aug 10, 2021, 6:32 PM UTC

calyth2018 wrote: post #30

georgeecollins wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is incredibly strong, but in the last century it suffered from terrible invasions. Yes, it probably can overcome any attack but it makes sense for a strategic thinker to worry that another power would try to attack it again. Think about the US.. Is the US really under threat of invasion? No. But there is a realistic historical concern about a surprise attack that animates US defense policy. Getting attacked and…

The US being "invaded" is far less likely. Canada is its ally / vassal. Mexico itself isn't terribly strong. If anyone attempts to springboard via either would serves as early warning for the US and they'd take the battle there. There are also not a lot of coastal countries, other than Cuba, so last time someone parked some nukes there in response to the US parking nukes in Turkey, the world wondered if it's all over…

Mexico is also a close ally, although one the US has treated very badly at times

Re: What China Wants and Why

#46

Post by rat87 » Tue, Aug 10, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

georgeecollins wrote: post #11

kasperni wrote: post #5

Few things in that article make any sense. Buffer regions? Who exactly is going to start a land invasion of China? And a land invasion through Tibet, the roof of the world?

Don't think about it as an invasion, think about it as a front. There have been historical times when the US-- essentially strategically secure-- has had a front to fight with Canada (1812) or Mexico (1849). Most recently, the civil war in Mexico (1917) had a large number of US troops fighting along the border right before the start of the US entry in the First World War. (the Germans realized this was the strategic…

The US didn't have a standing army in the war of 1812, there's no comparison to today

Germany didn't realize anything.

WW1 Germany were extremely foolish wrt the Zimmermann telegram. Mexico had absolutely no hope of seriously fighting America at that point and the only thing the Telegram did or could do was to bring America into the war against Germany. And then when British spies leaked it Germany admitted it and America declared war on Germany

Re: What China Wants and Why

#47

Post by WastingMyTime89 » Tue, Aug 10, 2021, 10:04 PM UTC

mohanmcgeek wrote: post #39

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #36

Let's conveniently forget the 100 years of the Yuan dynasty ruled by Mongols and the 300 years of the Quing dynasty ruled by the Manchu and pretends that the history of China is the history of the Han. Why would anyone question that? It's really hard to take the article seriously given how much it oversimplifies its premises.

The article does mention both of these facts.

Ok, I'm replying a second time because I kept being downvoted. I guess my first answer is not clear enough.

The article doesn't address these points. It mentions both facts as an exemple of invasions like if they were footnotes. That's four hundred years of history, more than the whole USA history. So yes, it does indeed conveniently forget them. Both periods had a significant impact on China which the article sweeps under the rug because it would go against the wrong story it is trying to sell.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#48

Post by ikerdanzel » Wed, Aug 11, 2021, 8:36 AM UTC

denton-scratch wrote: post #34

kesselvon wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pripyat Marshes are not a big stretch of the North European Plain. You can move massive armies through the northern route along the Baltic coast, or the southern route through Ukraine. They're not really a big obstacle, given the two land invasions that came from the West in the 20th century.

> given the two land invasions Both unsuccessful. But I note your observation that the Pripyat is not as large as my crap geography led me to think.

If they had read Sun Tzu, they would have won successfully. They mainly lost at weather similarly how China assisted NK to beat Americans. Westerners rarely factor in weather as war elements.

Re: What China Wants and Why

#49

Post by mohanmcgeek » Thu, Aug 12, 2021, 4:42 AM UTC

WastingMyTime89 wrote: post #47

mohanmcgeek wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article does mention both of these facts.

Ok, I'm replying a second time because I kept being downvoted. I guess my first answer is not clear enough. The article doesn't address these points. It mentions both facts as an exemple of invasions like if they were footnotes. That's four hundred years of history, more than the whole USA history. So yes, it does indeed conveniently forget them. Both periods had a significant impact on China which the article sweeps…

Did China become ethnically Mongol or Manchurian in those 400 years? They're still Han.

The plate tectonics part of this article is a stretch. But other than that, this article seems well researched.

Whether one agrees with it or not is decided by one's position on "geographic determinism".

Re: What China Wants and Why

#50

Post by kesselvon » Fri, Aug 13, 2021, 10:52 PM UTC

denton-scratch wrote: post #34

kesselvon wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pripyat Marshes are not a big stretch of the North European Plain. You can move massive armies through the northern route along the Baltic coast, or the southern route through Ukraine. They're not really a big obstacle, given the two land invasions that came from the West in the 20th century.

> given the two land invasions Both unsuccessful. But I note your observation that the Pripyat is not as large as my crap geography led me to think.

Last I checked, the Germans crushed the Russians in WW1 while treating that front as a defensive action while the real war was fought on the Western front.

The Polish invasion in 1920 was pretty effective too until it wasn't, same for Napoleon, etc. Point being its a big corridor for large troop movements.