Delta Variant • Hacker News Board

Re: Delta Variant

#41

Post by pier25 » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:49 PM UTC

These new variants were to be expected as the vaccines seem to be accelerating these mutations.

My understanding is that the COVID vaccines train the body to recognize the outer protein layer of the virus. In consequence when that changes (because of mutations and natural selection) the body becomes less effective at recognizing the virus.

Geert Vanden Bossche[1] has been warning about this for months now. He says it's possible at some point a new variant will come out that makes current vaccines completely ineffective.

[1] https://twitter.com/GVDBossche

Re: Delta Variant

#42

Post by specialp » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:51 PM UTC

I'm not sure what the end game is here. The original plan was "flatten the curve", which meant keep hospitals from getting inundated. Then it became wait for the vaccine. COVID is not going to go away. The vaccine has dramatically decreased the amount of people dying from it.

Cases going up without dramatic increases in death or hospitalization might not be a bad thing. The alternative is lockdowns that will never completely end the virus, and have a significant impact on our lives. It will just slow the spread over a very long time. There are ever present dangers that we just live with like the chances of getting in a car accident and dying, but we decide that these risks are low enough that we carry on normal life.

Re: Delta Variant

#43

Post by colincooke » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:51 PM UTC

havkom wrote: post #23

”Now, with Delta, it looks like the figures are 64%, 93% and 93% according to Israel, and 79% for symptomatic infection and 96% hospitalization according to the UK.” I doubt these will turn out to be correct numbers. Looking at recent week’s data in Israel possibly paints another picture (keep in mind while parsing the numbers that there are plentiful many more vaccinated in the population than not in the age groups…

There are some statistical concerns with how Israel came up with their numbers, so I would put more faith in other countries results, at least for now. My best guess is that the 64% is for any detectable disease, not symptoms (i.e. you test positive but don't feel meaningfully different), which means the vaccines do their job at quickly eliminating the virus.

Re: Delta Variant

#44

Post by idownvoted » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

Ah, nothing says "credibility" like reiterating the good old burning covid-corpses of india lie, or removing India from your scary looking chart of new infections, because it would show India's steady drop in new infections.

Hopefuly Thomas gets a bit more convincing scaredata for the Lambda Variant.

Re: Delta Variant

#45

Post by flagsmyopononsh » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

littlestymaar wrote: post #5

> I don’t think people are paying enough attention to Delta In the US probably. In Europe Delta has been followed closely even in mainstream media for at least a month.

[flagged]

Re: Delta Variant

#46

Post by neogodless » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

pier25 wrote: post #41

These new variants were to be expected as the vaccines seem to be accelerating these mutations. My understanding is that the COVID vaccines train the body to recognize the outer protein layer of the virus. In consequence when that changes (because of mutations and natural selection) the body becomes less effective at recognizing the virus. Geert Vanden Bossche[1] has been warning about this for months now. He says it…

https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-what-do-we-know-about-the-c...

> The earliest documented COVID-19 case caused by the delta variant (B.1.617.2) was found in the Indian state of Maharashtra back in October 2020

It doesn't seem that blaming this variant on vaccines makes much sense.

Re: Delta Variant

#47

Post by matz1 » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

>It looks like the risk of death is 2x higher for Delta than for the original variant:

2x of what ?

2x of low risk is still a low risk.

Re: Delta Variant

#48

Post by oscardssmith » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

hattmall wrote: post #38

My question is why don't we have treatment? Yes we know vaccines are good as preventative but we also know that vaccines are vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time. It's also somewhat burdensome to need to vaccinate all people all the time. Where is the research into effective treatments and why do we seem to prefer mass vaccination over acute treatments for the sick. Is it just much more difficult to…

In general, anti-viral treatments don't work very well. Antibiotics have worked great, but it's much harder to effectively target viruses with medicine (probably because they reproduce inside the cells of their hosts)

Re: Delta Variant

#49

Post by mikepurvis » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:52 PM UTC

CPLX wrote: post #4

I have to admit, I'm a little perplexed about all the discussion around the Delta variant. It almost feels like people are discussing this like it's a plot point in a novel, a new looming threat that comes after Act II, rather than a cold scientific fact. As someone who lives in New York and has been vaccinated for months, should I worry about this? It seems like the answer to that question is no, I shouldn't. Also n…

I'm a fully vaccinated Canadian, and it matters to me because the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so— and the longer it continues to circulate the better a chance it has of evolving further and then us all having to go into lockdown and wait for another booster shot that specifically targets whatever the new vector is:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-princip...

Re: Delta Variant

#50

Post by ceejayoz » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 1:53 PM UTC

hattmall wrote: post #38

My question is why don't we have treatment? Yes we know vaccines are good as preventative but we also know that vaccines are vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time. It's also somewhat burdensome to need to vaccinate all people all the time. Where is the research into effective treatments and why do we seem to prefer mass vaccination over acute treatments for the sick. Is it just much more difficult to…

We have gotten a lot better at treating COVID patients since the first couple of months, as we figure out which interventions work and which don't. Stuff like putting patients prone made a surprisingly large difference in the mortality rate.

Drugs like antivirals are "vulnerable to mutations and waning efficacy over time" just like vaccines are, and they're a lot harder to make.