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U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

#41
It really helps to have a look at the graph:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

This is clearly the highest level of reverse repo since the program was introduced, by a wide margin.

There are three factors behind this:

1. The Treasury has temporarily backed off issuance of short term debt as it drains down an overflowing General Account.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-liquidity-ex...

2. Banks have been inundated with cash resulting from federal government transfers (stimmy checks, paycheck protection program giveaways, etc.).

3. Banks can't simply accept cash from depositors and be done with it. They need to convert that cash into an asset of some kind. And right now, the asset of choice is short term treasuries (exactly the thing in short supply).

Reverse repo is when the Fed loans treasuries to banks, typically at very low rate and no more than one day. This avoids the need for the Fed to sell its short term treasuries on the open market.

By running reverse repo, the Fed can prevent short term interest rates from falling below zero (they have briefly broken this level in recent months). Such an occurrence would send a very unexpected signal to markets and could result in panic as investors see the value of money market funds shrink for the first time ever.

Of course, you might ask why on earth the Fed doesn't just sell the treasuries it picked up by performing all that quantitative easing over the last 18 months or so. This is what's known as "quantitative tightening." If you want to see markets really freak out, watch what happens if the Fed were to suddenly announce a massive quantitative tightening program.

Whether or not any of this matters is not clear. The Fed still has some tricks up its sleeve to keep the train rolling. And once the TGA is spent down, that could open the path to much more short term debt issuance. Of course, if demand grows faster than supply at that point, things could get crazy.

Re: U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

#42
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet I can't get a 0% interest load anywhere. How does this benefit anyone other than large institutions?

No, but you can get a ~3.5% 30 year fixed mortgage for the same reason.

And if the inflation hawks are right, that's a great deal - the capital you owe, and the interest you need to pay, will vanish within a couple of years and you'll still own the house.

Banks clearly don't think there's much risk of long term high inflation.

Re: U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

#43
post #2

Can someone provide a ELI5 for this?

Central banks raised interest rates a tiny amount from 0 to 0.05%. Banks were like: we no longer want to borrow all this cash we weren't doing anything with anyways please take it back central bank.

To add to this, central banks don't lend out cash without banks pawning an asset in return. And they only do so on a limited time basis. The banks have to promise to repurchase the pawned asset at a certain date, hence the name "repo" (reverse repo from the central bank's perspective).

Central banks are basically pawn shops that get to create their own cash to lend out.

Re: U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

#45

If you're looking for more information about reverse repos and this action generally, I found this piece incredibly useful: https://fed.tips/sico4-1/ Long but worth the education (if you're interested)

Taking a step back - "repo" is short for "Repurchase Agreement". Financial Institutions put collateral into an overnight market and receive cash, and then they "agree" to "repurchase" / give the cash back (plus some fee) for the collateral the next day - right? This is the "opposite" in that Financial Institutions put cash in and get collateral (treasuries) out - right? The transaction is essentially going in the "re…

What's really weird is they're getting interest to park their money overnight now (it's been zero interest for a while until today).

This is really smoke and mirrors though. Moving the cash into the repo market doesn't change anything, other than now it's an "asset" instead of a "liability." Yes, there are obviously legal differences here, but it's still the same amount of cash owned by the same entity, except now they're getting paid just to park it overnight.

I'm not saying the reverse repo market is nonsense. I'm saying the way the government has structured assets and liabilities in this instance is bizarre and seems like musical chairs. I've actually read up on this and am happy for someone to explain it to me further, but it really seems like they're just inventing new ways to kick the can down the road. I don't think they're actually solving anything; they're just making the problem worse and hiding the symptoms.

Re: U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

#46
post #41

It really helps to have a look at the graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD This is clearly the highest level of reverse repo since the program was introduced, by a wide margin. There are three factors behind this: 1. The Treasury has temporarily backed off issuance of short term debt as it drains down an overflowing General Account. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-liquidity-ex... 2. Ban…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

#47
post #31

This might be an unpopular opinion, but the economy we have right now feels quite fake, for lack of a better word, in the sense that the official numbers that are reported don't seem to reflect its actual health. I find it deeply concerning that every warning sign is summarily dismissed as "transitory" and the government and the Fed continue to drive full speed ahead.

It is fake. The thing is is your average American would never even consider the ultimate possibility of a foundational collapse of their economy and currency. And it's not just the average American. Nearly all hedge funds etc have USD as their basis. Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks, real estate etc has a value tag that's denominated in Dollars. You open up your portfolio and be happy when the USD value goes up in a nice green…

Life is relative. Every economy worldwide has been using monetary easing.

Re: U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

#48

Cefi flash loans It means a healthy economy and tons of deals, if it wasn’t so exclusive the banks wouldn’t have any business but it’s hard to say if it would be bad. I think more and smaller deals would be finished Like, employees could do cashless stock option exercise by just going to the Fed’s overnight lending market instead of dealing with boutique lenders

For anybody else who doesn't know what CeFi means: https://swissborg.com/blog/defi-vs-cefi

> There is no argument that the advent of blockchain democratised access to finance.

You’d think MySQL would have been the tool to tackle this obvious use case over all these years if you read this forum

Re: U.S. Fed accepts $756B in daily reverse repo operation

#49

This might be an unpopular opinion, but the economy we have right now feels quite fake, for lack of a better word, in the sense that the official numbers that are reported don't seem to reflect its actual health. I find it deeply concerning that every warning sign is summarily dismissed as "transitory" and the government and the Fed continue to drive full speed ahead.

> This might be an unpopular opinion, but the economy we have right now feels quite fake, for lack of a better word, in the sense that the official numbers that are reported don't seem to reflect its actual health.

opinion - feels - seems ?

Do you have any sources for your unpopular opinion?

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