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A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

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Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#41

Post by lgats »

sci_prog wrote: post #9

I wonder if there's a Paleo-proxy or some kind of natural record that could be used to trace the frequency and magnitude of these events throughout Earth's geological past and if anyone is looking into it? For example we can look at the ocean sediments (usually by measuring changes in isotopic ratio of different compounds) and infer a great deal on temperature, carbon cycling, polar reversal, ocean circulation, chemi…

Solar geology: deducing the Sun's pre-telescope history https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/52/2/2.13/206404

Evidence of a Monstrous, Ancient Solar Storm Found Hidden in Greenland's Ice https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a268179...

BC 660 beryllium-10 / chlorine-36 spike https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a268179...

AD 774–775 carbon-14 spike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%E2%80%93775_carbon-14_spik...

AD 993-994 carbon-14 spike https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms2783

See Also: Atmospheric Production of Carbon-14 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14#Natural_production_i...

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#42

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy »

vmception wrote: post #38
kadoban wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're saying that in the event of a worldwide, extended loss of power and communications, the currency you'll use will be the one that only exists, in any useful form, on a worldwide communications network, using loads of power? What am I missing?

you are missing that: a) an immediate steep drop in difficult will allow the network to resolve transactions without loads of power, and the few nodes online will still comprise the network. some networks have much longer difficulty adjustment periods and they will be debilitated for months as blocks will not come, other networks have much shorter adjustment periods and will generate new blocks in minutes b) that tra…

Context:

No power, societal fabric is breaking down, credit cards don't work.

Assumption: people will accept crypto at any value.

Reality: people will barter for tangible items and use force to maintain their desired order. If I'm auctioning a spare 10kw generator the guy offering a 5.56 rifle and 100 rounds has infinitely more value than 100k bitcoins (~$5,000,000,000.00)

Maybe this fantasy can play out if the person you're bartering with knows a lot about bitcoin, knows that the disaster is localized, and knows that they can escape and survive the disaster zone without the tangible alternatives. That's a lot of assumptions. You're better off hoarding 9mm bullets, water purification tabs, generators, trucks without electronics and their repair parts, solar panels, deep cycle batteries, gasoline/diesel, bullet proof vests, and MREs. But at that point any substantial tradeable stock pile is going to cost as much or more than a well designed bunker stocked to run and survive independently for >10yrs. You won't make any money during the disaster, and you must survive it to have the opportunity to be robbed before you can start to realize gains during the aftermath/rebuild period.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#43

Post by vmception »

Red_Leaves_Flyy wrote: post #42
vmception wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you are missing that: a) an immediate steep drop in difficult will allow the network to resolve transactions without loads of power, and the few nodes online will still comprise the network. some networks have much longer difficulty adjustment periods and they will be debilitated for months as blocks will not come, other networks have much shorter adjustment periods and will generate new blocks in minutes b) that tra…

Context: No power, societal fabric is breaking down, credit cards don't work. Assumption: people will accept crypto at any value. Reality: people will barter for tangible items and use force to maintain their desired order. If I'm auctioning a spare 10kw generator the guy offering a 5.56 rifle and 100 rounds has infinitely more value than 100k bitcoins (~$5,000,000,000.00) Maybe this fantasy can play out if the perso…

Right I think that will happen as well, I am interested in better price discovery instead of arbitrary barter.

I will support the cause to build the infrastructure for better price discovery. Transactions can be broadcast to the chain which is supported by an asset with many assurances and confidence about its supply.

I don't actually care about the cryptocurrency being a reserve currency or any ideology fantasizing that, I care about its network being an option to support better price discovery in barter.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#44

Post by sci_prog »

lgats wrote: post #41
sci_prog wrote: post #9

I wonder if there's a Paleo-proxy or some kind of natural record that could be used to trace the frequency and magnitude of these events throughout Earth's geological past and if anyone is looking into it? For example we can look at the ocean sediments (usually by measuring changes in isotopic ratio of different compounds) and infer a great deal on temperature, carbon cycling, polar reversal, ocean circulation, chemi…

Solar geology: deducing the Sun's pre-telescope history https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/52/2/2.13/206404 Evidence of a Monstrous, Ancient Solar Storm Found Hidden in Greenland's Ice https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a268179... BC 660 beryllium-10 / chlorine-36 spike https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a268179... AD 774–775 carbon-14 spike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774…

Thank you for these!

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#45

Post by medstrom »

bananabreakfast wrote: post #16
blacksmith_tb wrote: post #5

I am not an astrophysicist, but I don't see any reason to doubt the study's conclusions. But isn't the more pressing question the probability of such a CME hitting the Earth? The sun is not small, and CMEs could be ejected away from it in any direction, I would think relatively few of them hit any of the planets?

CMEs are not actually emitted uniformly over the whole spherical surface of the sun. Instead it's much closer to a Gaussian distribution centered on the ecliptic.

For anyone not in the know, the ecliptic is the plane of the Earth's and most planets' orbit.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#46

Post by saiya-jin »

xeromal wrote: post #28
weagle05 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I too would be interested to view these models. Coming from a rural background, people in my hometown still have gardens and hunt/fish. We're one, maybe two, generations removed from people producing most of their own food. I don't see how cities deal when they can't refrigerate food and the supply chain is interrupted.

Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. I don't see how it can fall apart of it's mostly self sustaining. There are still loads of people in my hometown that don't have power. What are they gonna lose if society falls apart? lol Lots of the local trucks run on vegetable oil so they don't even need a working supply chain for diesel. It'll be an inconvenience but it's no death. On top of that, a huge amount hunt and fish lik…

Well if us city dwellers will turn into savages due to lack of any food, the first thing we will turn into is go out to those nice farming communities for food. Obviously if your nearest big town is 500-1000km away then you're OK for some time. Maybe.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#47

Post by PicassoCTs »

How about creating a mass-ejection-storm-powered sunwards satellite, that creates a magnetic field and allows earth to orbit in its "calmer" cone-wake? It would be basically just "dead" components + coolant at point of event, held in place till then by a steering module.

I don't subscribe to the incident statistics on this anymore. We had similar incident statistics pre-chernobyl, pre-fukushima and they are not mereley useless, they are actually harmful and dangerous. They prevent discussion, calm down politicans and public, fuel a short-sighted prevent-cost-at-allcost-preventionism that sabotages any disaster awareness and preparedness.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#48

Post by bserge »

1cvmask wrote: post #2

It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.

Toilet paper hoarding in these scenarios is always funny. Look, you're not going to be flushing precious water down the toilet (if sewage even works), you will be shitting in a hole somewhere outside. In which case any paper, rags or big leaves will do just fine :D

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#49

Post by bserge »

hourislate wrote: post #12
1cvmask wrote: post #2

It would be interesting to model the way different societies would deal with such an event. Some presumably would have a run on toilet paper and other essentials. Other societies might ration resources on a need basis.

The 3rd world would be fine, the first world would fall apart. Just a few weeks without power is enough to bring the USA down onto it's knees.

That seems like the commonly held belief, but is it really the case?

1st world countries are well stocked, have know-how, have a lot of people (and a lot of educated people).

I'm inclined to believe they'd recover faster and with better results (i.e. no anarchy, no descent into dictatorship, good QoL) than third world countries. Worst case, they'll be invading poorer countries, sadly.

Re: A “perfect coronal mass ejection” could be a nightmare

#50

Post by zupa-hu »

I don't really get the "nightmare" consequences. Sure, some electric systems will go down / maybe burn down. But few people will die, right?

When I saw nightmare in the title, I expected something like humanity will be wiped out, or maybe just 90% of us.

Can somebody clarify?

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