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1700 Cascadia Earthquake

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41–50 of 118 posts

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#41
Add onto this that many or most of the mountains in the area are active volcanoes that are overdue for an eruption, and the Seattle area could be in for a real bad time over the next 250 years.

The projections of a moderate eruption of Mount Rainier (aka Tahoma/Tacoma) include flows reaching all the way to Renton/South Seattle.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#42
Reminder to folks that water, food, blankets, and tools are reasonable things to have stored away if you live in the PNW (or anywhere, really), and are relatively low maintenance to store.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#43

It's very difficult to describe how bad this earthquake is expected to be for a large swath of the Pacific Northwest when it happens again (and it's when, not if). It will be similar to Fukushima except absolutely nothing in the region is designed for earthquakes of this magnitude, not to mention the expected tsunami. Given the massive investment required and lack of motivation to do it, there will be almost no prepa…

I recently listened to the excellent "Fault Lines"[0] podcast from CBC podcast by seismologist Johanna Wagstaffe.

It describes the anticipated impact of the impending megathrust earthquake by examining the first moments, hours, days, etc after the event.

[0] https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/147-fault-lines

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#44
I live in Portland and have a slide-in truck camper on my property. I use it for camping of course, but it is also part of my earthquake preparation plan. It is solar powered but also has a built-in propane generator. It is fully self-contained with all the comforts of home including fresh water storage, a galley with oven, stove, freezer and fridge. A bathroom plus a hot shower, comfortable bed, large pantry, closet, etc.

It sits on a 3500 diesel truck that can go just about anywhere.

I know this solution is not practical for everyone. But it is always fully fueled, fully stocked and offers considerable peace of mind. If you have been on the fence about buying an RV, think of it from this angle.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that article: > fema projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. From the rest of the article, it seems that this estimate of deaths is too low by an order of magnitude. More people died in the Fukushima earthquake, and that is in a country that is probably the most earthquake ready country in the world. If you only have 15 minutes from the start of the earthqua…

That figure comes with a caveat that's mentioned towards the end of the article: > As for casualties: the figures I cited earlier—twenty-seven thousand injured, almost thirteen thousand dead—are based on the agency’s official planning scenario, which has the earthquake striking at 9:41 A.M. on February 6th. If, instead, it strikes in the summer, when the beaches are full, those numbers could be off by a horrifying ma…

If this is the case, it seems like you could get a lot of bang for your buck by building up a beach evacuation infrastructure.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that article: > fema projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. From the rest of the article, it seems that this estimate of deaths is too low by an order of magnitude. More people died in the Fukushima earthquake, and that is in a country that is probably the most earthquake ready country in the world. If you only have 15 minutes from the start of the earthqua…

I don’t know about how this would impact the estimates, but the Pacific Northwest differs from Japan in that the largest population centers — Vancouver, Seattle, Portland — are not exposed to the open ocean.

Seattle also rises very quickly from the ocean. Take a look: https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/na3/Seattle/

With the exception of the international district, all the low-lying areas are industrial in nature.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that article: > fema projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. From the rest of the article, it seems that this estimate of deaths is too low by an order of magnitude. More people died in the Fukushima earthquake, and that is in a country that is probably the most earthquake ready country in the world. If you only have 15 minutes from the start of the earthqua…

That figure comes with a caveat that's mentioned towards the end of the article: > As for casualties: the figures I cited earlier—twenty-seven thousand injured, almost thirteen thousand dead—are based on the agency’s official planning scenario, which has the earthquake striking at 9:41 A.M. on February 6th. If, instead, it strikes in the summer, when the beaches are full, those numbers could be off by a horrifying ma…

there is never a million people on the oregon coast.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that article: > fema projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. From the rest of the article, it seems that this estimate of deaths is too low by an order of magnitude. More people died in the Fukushima earthquake, and that is in a country that is probably the most earthquake ready country in the world. If you only have 15 minutes from the start of the earthqua…

I don’t know about how this would impact the estimates, but the Pacific Northwest differs from Japan in that the largest population centers — Vancouver, Seattle, Portland — are not exposed to the open ocean.

Right, in Oregon the coastal areas mostly rise quite quickly from the beach and are relatively sparsely populated. The more populated areas of Portland, Salem, Eugene, etc are well away from the ocean, so a tsunami is unlikely to kill very many people here.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That figure comes with a caveat that's mentioned towards the end of the article: > As for casualties: the figures I cited earlier—twenty-seven thousand injured, almost thirteen thousand dead—are based on the agency’s official planning scenario, which has the earthquake striking at 9:41 A.M. on February 6th. If, instead, it strikes in the summer, when the beaches are full, those numbers could be off by a horrifying ma…

there is never a million people on the oregon coast.

The problem is if the entire west coast adds up to 1 million people at the beach it might make very little difference which state their in. A 7pm July 4th quake resulting in a massive Tsunami would be vastly more deadly than an identical 4am quake the next day.

Re: 1700 Cascadia Earthquake

#50
post #15
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anything low lying in that area is at high risk in a cascadia quake. Buildings on high ground "only" have the quake risk, which is still significant.

I'm more concerned about the homes that will go up in flames due to ruptured gas lines. With the fire department overwhelmed, the potential amount of toxic smoke/fumes post-quake scares me more than the quake. Assuming I survive, assuming my family/friends do, assuming we all even are happy about being survivors of something so colossal, at such scale...

There aren't many places with natural gas significantly west of I-5 in Washington. There's a main artery down WA-12 to Aberdeen and the harbor, and that's it.

There's no natural gas service anywhere else on the WA pacific coast, nor the northern coast of the olympic peninsula (Sequim, Port Angeles), or the west bank of the Hood canal. The entire Olympic Peninsula is without natural gas except for one metro area. They actually have to haul tanks full of the stuff to the paper mill in Port Townsend to use.

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