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“Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

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Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#41

> Conventional wisdom holds that passive trading is the rational investing strategy. That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. > has catalyzed a lean-in mindset around investing, particularly among Gen Z. And it will burn them, just l…

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Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#42

> Conventional wisdom holds that passive trading is the rational investing strategy. That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. > has catalyzed a lean-in mindset around investing, particularly among Gen Z. And it will burn them, just l…

What it does do...for sure is make you go crazy.

Traders are pretty wired.

People building long term businesses (Like 10 year horizon plus) are on a different gravity.

Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#43
post #29

> Conventional wisdom holds that passive trading is the rational investing strategy. That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. > has catalyzed a lean-in mindset around investing, particularly among Gen Z. And it will burn them, just l…

While you’re right about the majority, there are pockets of young people partaking in sophisticated strategies, and doing quite well. The people in the discord server that I belong to are all using stops to max their downside and get out quick if their instinct proves wrong. After several months on paternity leave, it became clear that greatest barriers to active trading are money and time, like most things. If you’r…

> While you’re right about the majority, there are pockets of young people partaking in sophisticated strategies, and doing quite well

Active trading will is more likely to have larger swings than passive trading.

In the short-run the good times will be better and the bad-times will be worse.

In the long-run, statistically the majority (not all!) that play the game will lose over the long run to passive investors.

None of this is to argue for one of doing things over the other so long as people understand the risks that they're opting into.

Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#44
Thinking out loud, but to me, any economic system is flawed if it rewards bankers, hedge funds, venture capitalists, and speculation more than carpenters, plumbers, or any other profession that requires actual real world skills. My gut tells me that finance should be automated by computers without a profit motive because greed rots the soul and our environment.

Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#45

> Conventional wisdom holds that passive trading is the rational investing strategy. That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. > has catalyzed a lean-in mindset around investing, particularly among Gen Z. And it will burn them, just l…

If there’s anything different about GenZ, it’s that they’re crowdsourcing their plays, making them behave more like a distributed mutual fund than a bunch of gamblers. Time will tell if that performs better.

Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#46
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While you’re right about the majority, there are pockets of young people partaking in sophisticated strategies, and doing quite well. The people in the discord server that I belong to are all using stops to max their downside and get out quick if their instinct proves wrong. After several months on paternity leave, it became clear that greatest barriers to active trading are money and time, like most things. If you’r…

> there are pockets of young people partaking in sophisticated strategies, and doing quite well. If we could I'd make a 20 year wager that every one of those people will fail to beat the market in the long run. It's very easy to make money on "sophisticated strategies" during an historic 10 year bull run.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/buffe...

Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. This claim is false. Some funds have overperformed year after year with high margins and (relatively) low risk, for decades. For example, Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund and Warren…

Many folks see Boglehead-ism as some sort of science. It’s not bad advice for a disinterested investor in the US, but not exactly optimal advice either. I’d rather have my AAPL over the last 5 years than VTI+BND.

What would you rather have for the next 5 years? Why?

Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#48
post #7

> Conventional wisdom holds that passive trading is the rational investing strategy. That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. > has catalyzed a lean-in mindset around investing, particularly among Gen Z. And it will burn them, just l…

I’m not arguing the opposite, but I’m very interested in learning more about this. Can you suggest some references?

A reference (that lays out the statistical arguments) is "Common Sense on Mutual Funds" by John Bogle.

Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#49

> Conventional wisdom holds that passive trading is the rational investing strategy. That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. > has catalyzed a lean-in mindset around investing, particularly among Gen Z. And it will burn them, just l…

> That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. This claim is false. Some funds have overperformed year after year with high margins and (relatively) low risk, for decades. For example, Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund and Warren…

1. I think you'll find that funds that consistently beat the market for so many years are not taking investments. 2. Buffet himself says: "In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is to own the S&P 500 index fund"

Re: “Buy and Hold” No More: The Resurgence of Active Trading

#50

> Conventional wisdom holds that passive trading is the rational investing strategy. That isn't conventional wisdom. It's not someone's opinion. It's statistically proven reality. Whether you're an individual trader or a billionaire hedge fund manager, active strategies lose out to passive ones in the long run. > has catalyzed a lean-in mindset around investing, particularly among Gen Z. And it will burn them, just l…

But passive investing is just that, passive, theres no market information, no price information that influences the shares and prices. How is passive investing sustainable? Doesn't this destroy finance in the long run? Prices being completely detached from a listed company's financial viability and business profitability... thats bad isnt it?

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