> What is the story in nix for packaging untagged branches of software, or reasoning about "snapshots" where pools of unreleased repos/packages are able to be treated as a single versionable unit?
A Nix derivation (a.k.a. 'packaging unit') can be built from sources either fetched remotely, or from a local directory, or a combination of both; plus any other derivation that it depends on. Any version semantics come from how you implement them, abstracted and formalized in any way you want. Nix is a programming language, you are free to do what you want.
> Does the nix hash account for dependencies only changing the hash for ABI-impacting changes such as when a header file changes? Or does it change dependent hashes always? Or never?
By default, any change to any dependency will cause all dependent derivations to be rebuilt, and their hashes to also change. You can 'break' this by introducing stable ABI barriers preventing rebuilds and performing runtime loads of dependencies from .so (or whatever, executing some binaries from $PATH). This is for instance how my firefox can handle any OpenGL library that it can use at runtime, without having a firefox rebuilt for every possible GPU driver out there.
> I have an existing system for managing packaging metadata which I don't want to migrate from. How much trouble will I get into if I want to generate the metadata on the fly each time (as I currently do for my debs)?
You will have to generate nix source code, or importable nix source code, from that system, and pull that into your local nix source tree. All nix evaluation is done from purely defined locally available sources, or sources fetched from remote resources, but marked with some consistent hash.
> How much pain is it to roll a nix package "by hand" (basically with the dpkg-deb equivalent tool rather than the dpkg-buildpackage equivalent tool)?
Nix does not work this way. Nix derivations are a recipe on how to build a package, you have to specify that in one way or another so that Nix can perform the build for you, and reason about its status within a larger build graph. You can 'cheat' building derivations by eg. importing binary builds and only patching them up to work under Nix(OS), but generally you shouldn't.
> Nix isn't supported in Artifactory (RTFACT-19998 has been open since 2019). Nominally, I can use the dumb WebDAV option, but is that going to affect my user experience and/or will it be a maintenance headache?
You will need to run a Nix cache, that CI will push into and other consumers (all having a checkout of your nix definitions) will pull from instead of building everything from scratch themselves.
> What is the apt/nix interop story? I would likely need it to be bidirectional, so that my nix workspace could depend on system debs that I don't want to port over, but also potentially have "gateway" debs which able to do the opposite, of depending on the nix workspace from a deb shim, and installing/updating it in the postinst.
Not aware of anything out of the box. Nix builds only run on Nix (as they all need dependencies from /nix/store/..., and that is populated by Nix itself), so don't expect to easily run them on Debian as normal dpkgs without some disgusting home-rolled hacks. You could technically consume binary .debs from Debian within nix derivations (see previous point), but that's ugly. Generally, just install Nix on all your hosts.