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Other challenges to SV’s preeminence are more fundamental than the tech diaspora

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Re: Other challenges to SV’s preeminence are more fundamental than the tech diaspora

#41

The people that he mentions at the beginning of the article who have left have all peaked in their careers. The real loss would not be of people who have peaked leaving but of people who haven’t peaked yet leaving.

> people who haven’t peaked yet leaving. No, it is people who haven't peaked yet not even coming in the first place.

True. Hence the wrong focus in the article.

It’s like if Bill Gates leaves Seattle. Nothing happens because Gates is done in his career.

Re: Other challenges to SV’s preeminence are more fundamental than the tech diaspora

#42
post #14

High-profile entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, venture capitalists like Peter Thiel and Keith Rabois, and big companies like Oracle and HP Enterprise are all leaving California. Oh wow! Larry Ellison, that one guy who lies about his cars putting literal lives at risk , a figurative vampire (infuses literal blood of young people into himself) and his thrall, and a company that hasn't been relevant since the 1970s all are…

Oracle is, unfortunately, extremely relevant, just in none of the places you care about. Your biases keep you from seeing it.

In fact I was just recently involved in some conversations that could see the spend of tens of millions on their Cloud platform and where they are seriously looking like the strongest contender on both the technical and the business side.

Second tier cloud providers should be extremely worried about Oracle eating their lunch. Eventually the big three might have to too...

Re: Other challenges to SV’s preeminence are more fundamental than the tech diaspora

#43

There is no place like Silicon Valley where taking a career risk to quit a job and start a company is normalized, understood, and encouraged.

... that's because it's not a career risk when you're a multi millionaire who will just be rehired by your friends if your venture fails.

Re: Other challenges to SV’s preeminence are more fundamental than the tech diaspora

#44
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but never say never. The Chinese will for sure have their own version of Silicon Valley and their giants will rival ours, no doubt. I think there will be other critical centers of tech innovation, similar to how Hollywood is Hollywood but NYC has an industry as well.

Also it's very much worth nothing that Silicon Valley no longer has the monopoly on talent that it once had. In fact in some of the more important development areas now, it's shifted to places like Boston or elsewhere.

Not to mention that a lot of talent are moving to Austin, Miami, or literally anywhere thanks to the teleconferencing technology that Silicon Valley invented.

Which raises the question if Silicon Valley isn’t geographical but is rather a catch-all for the cutting edge and dumb money aspects of the U.S. tech industry. Is the Amazon/Microsoft/Valve tech scene in Seattle any less Silicon Valley than SV itself? Is Austin, which had techbros since the 90s with the likes of Trilogy [0], and an ongoing rush of new blood flowing out of the Bay Area, any less SV? Will VCs moving to Miami turn it into the funding operations center of SV?

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=620848

Re: Other challenges to SV’s preeminence are more fundamental than the tech diaspora

#47
This overlooks the cybercrime crisis, which in 2020 did ~4x more financial damage than weather & climate disasters. And it's expected to get much worse this year.

https://twitter.com/mnmnotmail/status/1372201054213787660

Silicon Valley probably has a role to play in suppressing cybercrime.

References:

Cybercrime, $945B: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/07/cybersecu...

Climate, $258B: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/01/world-hammered-by...

Re: Other challenges to SV’s preeminence are more fundamental than the tech diaspora

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also it's very much worth nothing that Silicon Valley no longer has the monopoly on talent that it once had. In fact in some of the more important development areas now, it's shifted to places like Boston or elsewhere.

Not to mention that a lot of talent are moving to Austin, Miami, or literally anywhere thanks to the teleconferencing technology that Silicon Valley invented. Which raises the question if Silicon Valley isn’t geographical but is rather a catch-all for the cutting edge and dumb money aspects of the U.S. tech industry. Is the Amazon/Microsoft/Valve tech scene in Seattle any less Silicon Valley than SV itself? Is Austin…

I've found that as much as the technical folks have spread out to Seattle & Austin (and now elsewhere as those are getting too expensive), nearly all of the business folks stick to the Valley. Both the brilliant and the parasites.

As the capital cycle has shifted away from VC towards companies consolidating and needing to make real returns, it's going to be interesting to see if SV can stay what it is until things turn around again.

During the dotcom correction, it was still possible for some people to stick around and eek out a living. Today that's not possible without technologist wages.

Business folks are mostly trend followers now and "leaving California" is a trendy thing to do.

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