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The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

rogerpielkejr.substack.com

41–50 of 141 posts

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#41
post #31

In this case it kind of seems like what you'd want to happen is happening: we've been warned about the dangers of climate change under "business as usual" scenarios, so we're not carrying on "business as usual", but reducing our CO2 emissions. So the question then is quite fundamental: what does it mean to describe a "business as usual" scenario that extrapolates from today? Does that mean carrying on doing what we'r…

Now we must imagine what the impact on policies would be to prematurely say we managed to cut emissions more effectively than predicted.

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#42

This is a good read, although somewhat depressing. When you have a topic that has been weaponized politically, as climate change has, people who use that weapon actively work against information they perceive would make the weapon less effective. The author sums it up as follows: ---- from the article: According to Rayner, in such a context we should expect to see reactions to uncomfortable knowledge that include: de…

The entire opening of the article discussing 2020 papers erroneously using skin cancer data in breast cancer research papers which was a known error for at least 13 years - makes the point very strongly that " ... but these studies/experiments have shown that understanding to be incorrect. Now we believe this." happens much slower than perhaps people expect.

I understand science "is expected to be wrong" sometimes, but I'm still somewhat boggled that there's 13 years worth of (presumably) peer reviewed papers making claims about breast cancer using "wrong science" that was proven wrong in 2007...

(I wonder what _else_ all those peer reviewers let slide or didn't know when reviewing other papers?)

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#43

How many times do we have to rediscover Kuhn's 'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions' and write articles about ideas that were well understood 60 years ago?

Kuhn never argued about the misuse of data. He instead argued that the scientific understanding of the data lead to models that became increasingly complex. So much so, that scientists realized it was time to try a new way of understanding the underlying data. The new models were the "revolution".

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#44
When something becomes widely known as a proxy to measure an effect, it ceases to be a useful measure, because people begin to consciously influence it. It's a well-known thing.

When scientific results become a proxy to the correctness of a political agenda (which is often a business interest in disguise), they become less and less scientific.

It's a perfect catch-22.

Same sadly applies to the internal tools of science: impact index, citation index, discovery of a novel effect, etc. There is a lot of incentives to game these metrics, and gaming them is, well, not unheard of.

In applied research there is more of a reality check: if the device based on your research obviously does not work, it cannot be produced and sold, so you want your research to reflect reality as best you can. But more subtle things, like public policy, lack this immediate feedback loop. So there is a large hazard for a researcher, when asked: "what is the value of 2 × 2 ?" to ask back: "are we selling or buying?" and find a plausible "right" answer that supports a desired case.

But, unlike in elementary arithmetics, nobody knows a certain right answer in many areas of natural science, so an honest mistake is hard to tell from a... less honest one. There must be a colossal pressure to exploit this in a situation of a high-stakes political choice.

I have no idea how to solve these problems. But at least the public should be aware that these problems exist.

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#45
post #41
post #31

In this case it kind of seems like what you'd want to happen is happening: we've been warned about the dangers of climate change under "business as usual" scenarios, so we're not carrying on "business as usual", but reducing our CO2 emissions. So the question then is quite fundamental: what does it mean to describe a "business as usual" scenario that extrapolates from today? Does that mean carrying on doing what we'r…

Now we must imagine what the impact on policies would be to prematurely say we managed to cut emissions more effectively than predicted.

But what's the alternative? Ignoring the fact that our data is based on wrong assumptions? Act as if nothing has changed?

Sure, this is not good in the short time. But this is already a smoking gun for climate change deniers; if we were to put this under the rug for another decade, it would become a smoking nuke. And imagine the impact of that.

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#46
>diversion -- (the scenarios are off track, but saying so advances the agenda of those opposed to action) and,

It is probably worthwhile to note: while the above might actually be a defensive response to these data, the argument is not necessarily valid -- the fact that emissions have been overestimated does not necessarily weaken the case for action. In particular, changes in temperature and precipitation continue to be observed even consistent with "wrong" models[1], and as such the sensitivity of the climate to these lower levels of emissions is not "good news".

1: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-mo...

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#47
Isn’t it better to act as if those edge cases are going to happen, so we can prevent the worst from happening.

Yes, scientific integrity is important, but if the message gets out to the general public, that those climate change models are based on outdated research, wouldn’t that make us procrastinate and not get off the fossil fuel based economy sooner?

Our biosphere degradation isn’t just about Ghg emissions, but pollution in general caused by our fossil fuel powered economy.

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#48
post #9
post #2

Maybe off the wall, but my first thought is certificate revocation. Could there be (or is there already) a semi-centralized database of research that should no longer be cited? With maybe a dependency graph of research that maybe needs to be revisited?

WOT signed endorsements. Back when I had time I drafted a P2P application to share papers and execute peer review via GPG based digital signatures. Signed metadata - at least that was the plan - allowed communities to endorse, retract, flag spam in a distributed opt-in manner. It's rotting on GitHub, never managed to drum up enough interest...

I’ve been toying with a similar idea but as a means of crowdsourcing a current best understanding of what science suggest. Primarily to weed through all the wild nutrition recommendations floating around into sensible advice based on what can actually be supported. I’m sure the idea extends to other areas.

In my mind it would be some reddit/Wikipedia kind of thing where advice and understanding would be debated using some formal language elements based on rdf or whatever to build up a knowledge graph usable inside applications.

Re: The Unstoppable Momentum of Outdated Science

#49
post #44

When something becomes widely known as a proxy to measure an effect, it ceases to be a useful measure, because people begin to consciously influence it. It's a well-known thing. When scientific results become a proxy to the correctness of a political agenda (which is often a business interest in disguise), they become less and less scientific. It's a perfect catch-22. Same sadly applies to the internal tools of scien…

I agree with you and I want to add one more layer. I program analytics for a living. I often find that people fudge numbers without even being conscious of it. If I know my boss wants the numbers on this report to be high, I'll unconsciously choose an algorithm that gives higher numbers than one that gives lower numbers. Even if both algorithms are "reasonable".
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