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Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

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Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#41

Post by Krisjohn »

rossdavidh wrote: post #4

Texan here. I tried, on Thursday, to buy a space heater; not only was the hardware store out, they told me a list of other places around town that were also out. Most homes use natural gas for heat, but I think a lot of space heaters are probably turned on right now. I also have to wonder how an everyone-videoconference-from-home society changes electricity usage? Not saying it has a significant impact, just wonderin…

> I also have to wonder how an everyone-videoconference-from-home society changes electricity usage? Not saying it has a significant impact, just wondering.

Well, anecdotally, my office is the only room that doesn't need heating.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#42

Post by bombcar »

cameronh90 wrote: post #25
don-code wrote: post #10

Some time ago, I worked for a defunct energy company that provided demand-side relief in exactly this scenario - when total system load outstrips total system capacity, we'd begin taking actions on behalf of end users, not the utility. Lights would turn off, generators would spin up, fridge temperatures would be raised. ERCOT (Texas) is an interesting case in that it can't import power from other states as easily - i…

Preface: I know very little about power grids, but had a couple thoughts. In the UK, there is a system of load shedding that is tied to the grid frequency. My understanding is that some industrial users agree terms where they get cheaper rates but if the demand outstrips supply, they are first to be cut. This load shedding is implemented by components that monitor the grid frequency, and if it drops below a fixed val…

Load shedding exists in the USA - however industrial customers who can shut off probably already have given the rise in spot prices.

I know the Datacenter we were in years ago would be asked to go to generators during CA power crisis.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#43

Post by slater »

ev1 wrote: post #18
walrus01 wrote: post #8

It is kind of weird and worrisome that such a large entity doesn't use https Look at the weird error message... https://www.ercot.com/ The rest of the site appears to be http only What's funny is that they do have a valid certificate for their error message page.

There's a cloudflare-like MITM in the middle that is serving https.

MITM in the middle? :D

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#44

Post by jweir »

hourislate wrote: post #34
jweir wrote: post #22

ERCOT is the only energy market not to have a capacity market. Combine this with a large dependency on wind(unreliable) and you see problems. This is not the first time has happened. Summer of 2019 saw a heat wave with no wind that lasted a week. Energy prices were way up. https://cpowerenergymanagement.com/why-doesnt-texas-have-a-c... Ps - I just checked the prices for northern Hub - day ahead was over $6,500 and re…

From what I understand, it's not that there is no wind. 50% of the Turbines have been shut down do to icing. The also have some NatGas suppliers that suffered freezing damage. So it's a combination of things that are adding up. I'm in North Texas and I can't remember temps this low in the last 30 years. It's about 13 degrees (- 10 C) at the moment and it looks like it is going to get a lot colder in the coming days.

Correct. The summer of 2019 was no wind. Today’s problem is ice.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#45

Post by ev1 »

slater wrote: post #40
shiftpgdn wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. I was on track for a $5000 electric bill at the end of the week. I got switched over yesterday. Still going to be painful but not horrible.

$5k?!?!? How?!

$0.05 to $0.10/kWh seems like normal pricing.

Average US house uses ~1100-1200 kWh (I don't actually know this, based on googling, assuming most places in Texas are standalone houses) per month.

If prices are $3000-9000 per MW, then ~40 to 60 kWh/day (let's be generous, people are explicitly turning on heat for this extreme cold) for a week...

Even $2/kWh (which was exceeded days ago) would demolish peoples' budgets.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#46

Post by don-code »

cameronh90 wrote: post #25
don-code wrote: post #10

Some time ago, I worked for a defunct energy company that provided demand-side relief in exactly this scenario - when total system load outstrips total system capacity, we'd begin taking actions on behalf of end users, not the utility. Lights would turn off, generators would spin up, fridge temperatures would be raised. ERCOT (Texas) is an interesting case in that it can't import power from other states as easily - i…

Preface: I know very little about power grids, but had a couple thoughts. In the UK, there is a system of load shedding that is tied to the grid frequency. My understanding is that some industrial users agree terms where they get cheaper rates but if the demand outstrips supply, they are first to be cut. This load shedding is implemented by components that monitor the grid frequency, and if it drops below a fixed val…

I don't know that ERCOT has any similar program - here in the US, for areas that run a load-shedding system, load is typically dropped after 0.2 seconds of 59.5hz or lower (nominally 60hz). Some consumers may choose to cut themselves off prior to that point, to prevent damage to equipment at the lower frequencies.

ERCOT (and others) also implement peak demand charges, where some portion of a large user's overal yearly rate is determined by their usage on days when the grid is under the most stress. Usage for that particular day ends up setting rates for the entire year, which makes it not only risky but also very costly.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#48

Post by mdip »

Krisjohn wrote: post #41
rossdavidh wrote: post #4

Texan here. I tried, on Thursday, to buy a space heater; not only was the hardware store out, they told me a list of other places around town that were also out. Most homes use natural gas for heat, but I think a lot of space heaters are probably turned on right now. I also have to wonder how an everyone-videoconference-from-home society changes electricity usage? Not saying it has a significant impact, just wonderin…

> I also have to wonder how an everyone-videoconference-from-home society changes electricity usage? Not saying it has a significant impact, just wondering. Well, anecdotally, my office is the only room that doesn't need heating.

Yup, year-round I have a window open in that room. It's 10 outside, today, but a balmy 77 in my office.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#49

Post by bombcar »

throwawayboise wrote: post #14
pxeboot wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source? I have personally seen one operating in Alaska during the winter.

It's not the temperature per se, it's icing. I read it here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-14/deep-free... “When wind-turbine blades get covered with ice, they need to be shut down,” said Joshua Rhodes, a research associate at The University of Texas at Austin who focuses on energy.

A windmill is basically a inverse airplane - and airplane wings don’t like icing. I assume you could heat the blades but at some point you’re consuming more energy than you’re making.
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