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Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

theguardian.com

41–49 of 49 posts

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#41
post #3

> “ghastly future of mass extinction, declining health and climate-disruption upheavals” that threaten human survival because of ignorance and inaction The pandemic has taught me that humans will roundly ignore even the most glaring evidence to avoid accepting bad things are happening. I can't see how we're ever going to be able to avert climate disaster when we can't even get everyone to take basic precautions again…

> the most glaring evidence what evidence? "in 1968, Ehrlich warned of imminent population explosion and hundreds of millions of people starving to death" Wrong, wrong, wrong. Food has never been more abundant, plentiful and inexpensive https://www.wfdd.org/story/food-growing-more-plentiful-so-wh... Pardon me for ignoring what this fear monger and crackpot has to say.

I believe that species loss is inversely proportional to wealth. The poorer the country the faster its loss.

And due to advances in agricultural technology, since the Population Bomb book was published, global population has doubled while hunger has greatly diminished.

So wouldn’t the answer be more technology & wealth, not less?

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the most glaring evidence what evidence? "in 1968, Ehrlich warned of imminent population explosion and hundreds of millions of people starving to death" Wrong, wrong, wrong. Food has never been more abundant, plentiful and inexpensive https://www.wfdd.org/story/food-growing-more-plentiful-so-wh... Pardon me for ignoring what this fear monger and crackpot has to say.

I believe that species loss is inversely proportional to wealth. The poorer the country the faster its loss. And due to advances in agricultural technology, since the Population Bomb book was published, global population has doubled while hunger has greatly diminished. So wouldn’t the answer be more technology & wealth, not less?

> more technology & wealth

the exact things Ehrlich and his colleagues would like to prevent

EDIT- from the horse's mouth:

- If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000

- giving society cheap, abundant energy at this point would be the moral equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun

- Too many rich people in the world is a major threat to the human future

- Technology does nothing to solve problems of biodiversity or living space or arable cropland

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#43
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the most glaring evidence what evidence? "in 1968, Ehrlich warned of imminent population explosion and hundreds of millions of people starving to death" Wrong, wrong, wrong. Food has never been more abundant, plentiful and inexpensive https://www.wfdd.org/story/food-growing-more-plentiful-so-wh... Pardon me for ignoring what this fear monger and crackpot has to say.

Things changed in direct response to the warning. That is exactly how it is supposed to go. People who don't know insist too that Y2K was a big nothing, but it was nothing only because of $billions spent to ensure that it would be. People who don't know say the same about whales, acid rain and stratospheric ozone. Same thing: global effort, crisis reduced, although further effort needed. 2038 still looms, but much ha…

"Things changed in direct response to the warning. That is exactly how it is supposed to go".replace('the warning', 'profit motive')

fixed it for you

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Zero fertility would introduce an aging crisis.

Which is preferable to a resource exhaustion crisis. Can’t kick the can forever. Most of the world is at or below a total fertility rate replacement rate (2.1). The trend simply needs to continue for ~10-15 years to lock in the population decline.

But Subsaharan Africa will more than pick up the slack[1][2].

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

[2] https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Lin...

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#45
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's weird, because all the places I've traveled (in both US and EU) have had a clear rise in average temperature in the last 3 decades. The country I live in has had the average temperature steadily rise by a full degree over the last 30 years. Which is visible in changes in flora and fauna and extreme weather. Really makes me wonder where you get your data.

There were some unusual 'hottest on record' last year in the summer in some parts of Europe. But also there were a lot of 'coldest on record' in other places like the US and in Russia during the winter so it doesn't really mean much... This is bound to happen somewhere every year but you need to look at averages and try different years.

I mentioned average temperature twice in my comment, did you miss that? I looked at average temperatures for these locations over the last 100-ish years. Consistently all of these places rising averages. Below are some links to back that up.

If you disagree with this, please also provide some graphs that back up your observations.

California: https://oehha.ca.gov/sites/default/files/media/airtempfig12....

Spain: https://sailingtheatlantic.com/pdfs/climate_change_spain.pdf

Netherlands: https://www.clo.nl/sites/default/files/styles/clo_infographi...

Russia: https://cms.qz.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/russia-tempera...

Global: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-oc...

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#46
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is preferable to a resource exhaustion crisis. Can’t kick the can forever. Most of the world is at or below a total fertility rate replacement rate (2.1). The trend simply needs to continue for ~10-15 years to lock in the population decline.

But Subsaharan Africa will more than pick up the slack[1][2]. [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... [2] https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Lin...

Agree that more work needs to be done for women's rights in that part of the world (empowerment, education, easy access to family planning resources, etc).

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#what-explains-the-...

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#47
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's weird, because all the places I've traveled (in both US and EU) have had a clear rise in average temperature in the last 3 decades. The country I live in has had the average temperature steadily rise by a full degree over the last 30 years. Which is visible in changes in flora and fauna and extreme weather. Really makes me wonder where you get your data.

There were some unusual 'hottest on record' last year in the summer in some parts of Europe. But also there were a lot of 'coldest on record' in other places like the US and in Russia during the winter so it doesn't really mean much... This is bound to happen somewhere every year but you need to look at averages and try different years.

That's why it's called climate change and not global warming. More extremes.

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#48
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things changed in direct response to the warning. That is exactly how it is supposed to go. People who don't know insist too that Y2K was a big nothing, but it was nothing only because of $billions spent to ensure that it would be. People who don't know say the same about whales, acid rain and stratospheric ozone. Same thing: global effort, crisis reduced, although further effort needed. 2038 still looms, but much ha…

I'm very skeptical that increases in agricultural productivity and political stability, two leading preventers of famine, were a direct result of a single book. The Population Bomb was controversial and had many detractors at the time. It seems much more likely that he was simply wrong in his predictions (which he insists were simply possible scenarios). Otherwise, you'd have much more evidence of the book being cite…

The Green Revolution and improvements in political stability were each the result of huge amounts of hard work by people who recognized crippling problems ahead, and acted to avert them. If you were to tell them they were wrong to perceive a problem and invest the effort, they would be well justified in punching you in the nose.

Re: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruptio

#49
post #17
post #3

> “ghastly future of mass extinction, declining health and climate-disruption upheavals” that threaten human survival because of ignorance and inaction The pandemic has taught me that humans will roundly ignore even the most glaring evidence to avoid accepting bad things are happening. I can't see how we're ever going to be able to avert climate disaster when we can't even get everyone to take basic precautions again…

Some nations are handling the pandemic a lot more effectively than others. Evidently it's possible to do something right. Also, these guys are arguing that population growth and high levels of consumption in wealthy nations are the key factors. Not even everybody has to do something.

I agree; I wouldn’t say “humans” are the problem, but “cultures that value capitalism more than human life.”
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