41–50 of 53 posts
"I decided to turn off the incessant trivial chatter on Twitter and TechCrunch, get my hands dirty, and just build something." Hence this exchange a few days back: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2556295 "He seems to leave virtually no trace (other than awesome software) on the Internet." "Probably because he spends his time writing awesome software."
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people who are successful do not know how they became successful. I'm afraid I don't follow. You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? If that's the case why should we bother trying to control our lives at all? Why don't we just walk around with our eyes shut and hope luck drops in…
You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Yes. Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? Possibly. The point is neither we, nor he, know. [W]hy should we bother trying to control our lives at all? A good question. Without getting into philosophical questions of free will, I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at…
What is the publicized formula for success?
By doing something, you expose yourself to fate.
There are millions that do something with the stock market every week. Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?
I don't usually play the part of armchair psychologist, but this essay appears to me to be an excellent example of projection. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projection_bias The author assumes that because he doesn't know what he's doing, other people also don't. I disagree. Sometimes people can know exactly what they're doing, and be fairly confident about the possible consequences. I made a viral hit similar to the a…
Then I did it again with different code, without leveraging the existing user base, just to see if it was all luck. Did you post it under a different name and account that none of your friends or contacts knew about? Just curious how you were able to be sure none of the existing user base or any of the notoriety you gained from the first hit contributed to the second.
And fear not, I have no more 'mylifeis...' sites in production. I think a third one would just be sad.
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You're saying Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor of all time, doesn't know how he became successful? Yes. Or that some random chance gave him his uncanny investment insight? Possibly. The point is neither we, nor he, know. [W]hy should we bother trying to control our lives at all? A good question. Without getting into philosophical questions of free will, I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at…
I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success What is the publicized formula for success? By doing something, you expose yourself to fate. There are millions that do something with the stock market every week. Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?
Generally something along the lines of 'work hard, work smart, be persistent.'
Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?
No one knows; that's the point of the article. It could be pure chance. Put 1000 people in a room and have them each flip a coin for double or nothing, and in the end you will likely have a person who has made 1000x their original investment. Should we laud the winner's coin-flipping ability?
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I suspect the pragmatic answer is that there is at least a weak correlation between the publicized 'formula' for success and actual success What is the publicized formula for success? By doing something, you expose yourself to fate. There are millions that do something with the stock market every week. Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success?
What is the publicized formula for success? Generally something along the lines of 'work hard, work smart, be persistent.' Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success? No one knows; that's the point of the article. It could be pure chance. Put 1000 people in a room and have them each flip a coin for double or nothing, and in the end you will likely have a person who has made 1000x their ori…
To answer your question, no, we don't laud the winner's coin flipping ability, because, in the absence of cheating, the person's actions and decisions don't influence the outcome. All participants have an exactly equal chance at being the end winner, and nothing will change that. However, some savvy investors, like Warren Buffet, are able to ensure they win over others using the stock market; the difference being that their decision making does directly influence whether they "win" or "lose".
It seems to me you're suggesting investors could use coin flipping to make all investment decisions, and that makes as much sense as trying to decide by other means, since they don't know what they are doing anyway. Correct?
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What is the publicized formula for success? Generally something along the lines of 'work hard, work smart, be persistent.' Why is Warren Buffet the only one with his level of investment success? No one knows; that's the point of the article. It could be pure chance. Put 1000 people in a room and have them each flip a coin for double or nothing, and in the end you will likely have a person who has made 1000x their ori…
So, if I understand you correctly, you're suggesting that before Warren Buffet was even born, he was destined to become the successful investor we know? Further, that he shouldn't take any credit for thinking through all his decisions and coming up with the more profitable choice enough to substantially beat out millions of other investors? To answer your question, no, we don't laud the winner's coin flipping ability…
[Y]ou're suggesting investors could use coin flipping to make all investment decisions, and that makes as much sense as trying to decide by other means...
I'm not suggesting it, but now that you mention it there are some studies that do. I suspect there are real investment skills that can be learned and applied, much the same way a blackjack card counter gains a small edge that can be exploited over time.
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So, if I understand you correctly, you're suggesting that before Warren Buffet was even born, he was destined to become the successful investor we know? Further, that he shouldn't take any credit for thinking through all his decisions and coming up with the more profitable choice enough to substantially beat out millions of other investors? To answer your question, no, we don't laud the winner's coin flipping ability…
I said nothing about pre-destination, and Warren Buffet is free to take as much credit as he likes. I'm supporting the gist of the article, which is that complex phenomena like economic systems are much more like coin flipping than they are like dropping an object and predicting it will hit the ground. Contrary to what you say, the coin-flipper's actions and decisions do influence the outcome: he has to decide to kee…
Let me rephrase the question: Would you give Warren Buffet credit for his investment success?
he has to decide to keep playing
You said "in the end" which I took to mean the coin flipping would continue until only one winner remained of the 1000.
and he has to decide whether to call heads or tails
To ensure we are imagining the same crucial parameters let me clarify these points: first, the coin itself is not biased in any way; second, the flipping action is not biased; it could be carried out by a mechanized flipper, for example; third, the choice of heads or tails is always made before the flip. Under these circumstances the actual calling of heads or tails does not matter. The caller will always have exactly a 50% chance of winning and losing.
I suspect there are real investment skills that can be learned and applied, much the same way a blackjack card counter gains a small edge that can be exploited over time
Well, that's the first thing you've said I can easily agree with. Yes, I certainly believe, given enough time, Warren Buffet could teach someone to follow his methodology to have nearly identical success. So which is it? Is Warren Buffet someone who knows what he's doing or not?
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I said nothing about pre-destination, and Warren Buffet is free to take as much credit as he likes. I'm supporting the gist of the article, which is that complex phenomena like economic systems are much more like coin flipping than they are like dropping an object and predicting it will hit the ground. Contrary to what you say, the coin-flipper's actions and decisions do influence the outcome: he has to decide to kee…
Warren Buffet is free to take as much credit as he likes Let me rephrase the question: Would you give Warren Buffet credit for his investment success? he has to decide to keep playing You said "in the end" which I took to mean the coin flipping would continue until only one winner remained of the 1000. and he has to decide whether to call heads or tails To ensure we are imagining the same crucial parameters let me cl…
For making a good living, yes; I think that much was in his control. For becoming a billionaire? No, there were far too many variables involved that were not within his control.
I certainly believe, given enough time, Warren Buffet could teach someone to follow his methodology to have nearly identical success.
I think Warren Buffet could teach someone to have some success, I don't believe he could teach someone to be a billionaire because becoming a billionaire depends in large part on chance. Most professional card counters never became rich either, they just made a good living.
You seem to be viewing the article as discouraging, while I see it as encouraging. While it means that much of our prospects for success are beyond our control, for the most part we have as good a chance as anyone, so get out there and do something.
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Warren Buffet is free to take as much credit as he likes Let me rephrase the question: Would you give Warren Buffet credit for his investment success? he has to decide to keep playing You said "in the end" which I took to mean the coin flipping would continue until only one winner remained of the 1000. and he has to decide whether to call heads or tails To ensure we are imagining the same crucial parameters let me cl…
Would you give Warren Buffet credit for his investment success? For making a good living, yes; I think that much was in his control. For becoming a billionaire? No, there were far too many variables involved that were not within his control. I certainly believe, given enough time, Warren Buffet could teach someone to follow his methodology to have nearly identical success. I think Warren Buffet could teach someone to…
Well, yes, I can agree nobody can completely know or control the future. One may become terminally ill, or the Earth may be hit by a meteor at any time. However, that was not the argument made by the author. It was that none of us knows what we're doing. He seems to suggest we have little control over the outcomes which we do see, saying things like Nobel Prize winners are "winging it", as if they have the same understanding as anyone else (in this case none) when it comes to their expertise. I find that highly disconcerting.
If we imagine a chess match, where we know the duration will be a few hours, and the fitness of the players will not be compromised for the game duration, we can understand the winning or losing outcome is entirely in the hands of the players. If we further imagine the best chess player in the world accepts this match, and both players fully intend to win, if the best player wins would you agree it is because he (or she) does know what he (or she) is doing?
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Would you give Warren Buffet credit for his investment success? For making a good living, yes; I think that much was in his control. For becoming a billionaire? No, there were far too many variables involved that were not within his control. I certainly believe, given enough time, Warren Buffet could teach someone to follow his methodology to have nearly identical success. I think Warren Buffet could teach someone to…
For becoming a billionaire? No, there were far too many variables involved that were not within his control. Well, yes, I can agree nobody can completely know or control the future. One may become terminally ill, or the Earth may be hit by a meteor at any time. However, that was not the argument made by the author. It was that none of us knows what we're doing. He seems to suggest we have little control over the outc…
Similarly, in a championship chess match there will be points where even the most skilled player in the world may be uncertain as to which move is best. At those points, they too are winging it. If they intuitively make the best move without being able to fully explain why they are making it, does that not prove the author's point?