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LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

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Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#41
post #2

Almost $100/user, not even including active users... that is insanity.

The current valuation is ~$8.5 billion, wikipedia puts them at ~100 million users. That works out to be ~$85/user.

Don't worry, it only took an hour after your comment for the stock to break $100 and their valuation is now a cool $10 billion.

The way this stock is moving now, a stock price of $83 seems downright conservative.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#43
post #40

The IPO should have probably been priced a little higher. Closer to $70 or $80, given this type of demand. The people that were in on the IPO got a very nice return this morning, provided the stock price stays this high for a little while. Also, LinkedIn would have raised something closer to $700 million or more, had the IPO been priced more accurately. Does anyone know who the underwriters were?

Morgan Stanley, Merril Lynch, BofA and JPMorgan I believe.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#44
post #2

Almost $100/user, not even including active users... that is insanity.

The current valuation is ~$8.5 billion, wikipedia puts them at ~100 million users. That works out to be ~$85/user.

The current valuation has jumped about 15-25% (from 88 to 110 per share) in the 10 minutes I've been watching it.

right now's not the time to pick nits on their valuation this whole thing is going to be completely out of whack for a while.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#45
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There always is.

Not always. There are some companies that don't have enough liquidity to effectively make that trade or have no investors willing to lend the shares. Not to mention shorting (or options) aren't even allowed yet on this particular stock.

But in this case there is almost a certainty that people would accept your short. I would.

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#46
post #5

LinkedIn made $15 million dollars last year, and they just raised $660 million dollars out of the gate in this IPO. And, this IPO values LinkedIn at somewhere close to 6.5 billion dollars. A valuation of 6.5 billion dollars on $15 million net income. Let that sink in.

For comparison, in 1999 Webvan IPO'd at $8 billion, with revenue (not profit!) of $395,000 :)

http://cnet.co/kIKoMh

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#47
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on there IPO prospectus from sec.gov: Year; Revenue; Costs; Income 2008; 78,773; 84,282; (4,522) 2009; 120,127; 123,482; (3,973) 2010; 243,099; 223,523; 15,385 expense growth is 46%, 82% yoy. revenue growth is 52%, 103% yoy. So, you have a company that is growing revenue faster than expenses, has 100% year over year revenue growth, and has just hit the inflection point to be profitable... and you want to place…

Exactly. If LinkedIn can make $243M/year selling to recruiters and job seekers in a recession, what do you think happens when we have a global recovery and the inevitable hiring boom comes?

Isn't "make" usually used to describe income (profit) rather than revenue?

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#48
post #2

Almost $100/user, not even including active users... that is insanity.

Imagine a Facebook IPO that reached $100 per user...

Not hard to imagine. 700M users at a $70B valuation = $100 per user. I guess that's why how the current valuation of LinkedIn comes about. And if you use this metric, and believes that LinkedIn's growth potential is significantly stronger than Facebook, you could even argue that LNKD is still way undervalued.

BTW I made a Tagxedo (word cloud) of this morning's LinkedIn News, and one prominently featured word explains all (the word starts with "F" and ends with "k" :D)

http://daily.tagxedo.com/may-20-linkedin-rockets-skyward-in-...

Re: LNKD IPO opens huge at $83

#49
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At times like this I'm tempted to short the stock, or at least wait a month or longer until there's sufficient shares to short and not immediately get squeezed. It's just that unlimited downside, investor euphoria on social networking, and volatility makes me too nervous to do it.

If the unlimited downside scares you, why not buy put options?

I probably should and wonder whether the price of put options gets inflated due to all the people who want to short? I could also put stop limits but the volatility makes that worse than options.
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