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Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

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Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#41

Post by uncledave »

canofbars wrote: post #26
pram wrote: post #3

I’m not convinced. They describe it as the result of having a “preference for risk” but maybe they’re just seeking novel experiences? If they’re trying new things simply because they’re new, then their behavior offers no predictive power. There’s very little risk associated with buying a different flavor of soda :V

Established brands thrive on this as well. Frequently releasing unusual but ultimately not very good flavour variations because many people will buy it just to find out what vegemite flavoured chocolate tastes like.

I am their anti-customer by definition. I suspect a lot of people don’t know what they want. I’m glad I’m not one of them.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#42

Post by marvin »

cryptica wrote: post #38

I'm a harbinger of failure on the supply side. Whenever I join a company or new industry or make an investment or make a prediction, it does the exact opposite of what I anticipated because of some insane global event that has nothing to do with me. For example, I was working in a bootstrapped tech startup in online education industry which was delivering real value (really great product). But didn't really go anywhe…

Well, if you work for a publicly traded company, you could always spend part of your salary on put options on your employer.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#43

Post by cryptica »

marvin wrote: post #42
cryptica wrote: post #38

I'm a harbinger of failure on the supply side. Whenever I join a company or new industry or make an investment or make a prediction, it does the exact opposite of what I anticipated because of some insane global event that has nothing to do with me. For example, I was working in a bootstrapped tech startup in online education industry which was delivering real value (really great product). But didn't really go anywhe…

Well, if you work for a publicly traded company, you could always spend part of your salary on put options on your employer.

That sounds like a good idea but I think that might affect the jinx ;) Clearly, the money must be given to me for free, not paid within a capitalist context or resulting from an investment strategy where I would get the credit for making a good decision. Free money (donations) is the only thing that has worked for me so far. Most of my income in the past few years has been donations.

BTW, Facebook reached out for an interview recently but I didn't follow through... So if someone reading this comment buys Facebook shares and makes a ton of money, please think of me and give me some free money.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#44

Post by austinjp »

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #16
dang wrote: post #13

A friend of mine who grew up in Spokane, WA told me that for some reason Spokane was regarded as the ideal product testing ground by big American corporations, and so he and his friends encountered a lot of weird products that never succeeded, and a few major ones that they saw years before everyone else. Anybody know if this is true?

I heard that story about Columbus, Ohio. I think “the industry” has a shortlist, though. https://www.columbusmonthly.com/article/20150126/LIFESTYLE/3...

Okay, now I really want to see that shortlist and visit each place or watch a good documentary visit them and uncover the strange merch.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#45

Post by cmxch »

HeyLaughingBoy wrote: post #39
dragontamer wrote: post #14

Pebble, Nook, a bunch of Kickstarter stuff... Lumia 950. Also the Burger King "Big King" burger, the McDonalds chicken selects... and a few other items that I have forgotten about over the years... I dunno if that makes me "Harbinger of Failure", but its become clear that my consumer tastes are pretty niche. ------ At least I got "unsweet ice tea" right, lol. Seems like plenty of soda companies are making that now.

If it makes you feel better, I'm the only person I know of who still has a Microsoft Phone... running Windows 10!

Not the only one. As long as the battery and flash keeps, my 1020 will continue to be a good camera.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#46

Post by ahartmetz »

dang wrote: post #13

A friend of mine who grew up in Spokane, WA told me that for some reason Spokane was regarded as the ideal product testing ground by big American corporations, and so he and his friends encountered a lot of weird products that never succeeded, and a few major ones that they saw years before everyone else. Anybody know if this is true?

There's a place like that in Germany. The most average place is actually a rather strange place. It is known as "the biggest village of Germany" (it never got promoted to a town despite having 10k residents) and it bears the somewhat ugly name "Haßloch", meaning roughly "hate hole". As you might imagine, the name is a corruption of an earlier name a long time ago.

I knew a guy there whose parents, sure enough, were giving data to several market research companies.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#47

Post by mtVessel »

ncmncm wrote: post #19

I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite. It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. In any big group of people known to each…

> Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it.

Cipolla's first law of stupidity[1]:

Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlo_M._Cipolla

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#48

Post by dTal »

mszcz wrote: post #29
dragontamer wrote: post #14

Pebble, Nook, a bunch of Kickstarter stuff... Lumia 950. Also the Burger King "Big King" burger, the McDonalds chicken selects... and a few other items that I have forgotten about over the years... I dunno if that makes me "Harbinger of Failure", but its become clear that my consumer tastes are pretty niche. ------ At least I got "unsweet ice tea" right, lol. Seems like plenty of soda companies are making that now.

I have no idea why there still isn't another eink smartwatch. It was such a wonderful piece of tech. Worked wonderfully, had days of battery life and, most importantly, non trivial and loyal customer base.

The Pebble had a transflective LCD display (branded "e-paper"), not e-ink (a term which refers to electrophoretic displays).

I agree though that Pebble was great and there's no true replacement yet.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#49

Post by ncmncm »

mtVessel wrote: post #47
ncmncm wrote: post #19

I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite. It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. In any big group of people known to each…

> Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it. Cipolla's first law of stupidity[1]: Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlo_M._Cipolla

If only C. Cipolla's literary heirs were not so assiduous at trying to erase his contribution. Re-post the article he explained his thesis in, and expect a nasty note from their lawyer.

Carlo himself, while he lived, welcomed re-publication. His heirs spit on his memory.

Re: Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

#50

Post by mcavoybn »

mcavoybn wrote: post #2

no

I was upvoted for this comment at first, then harshly downvoted.

Let me expand on what I meant:

Leveraging consumer data (and marketing that process in a blog post) is an insidious affair. This article is just a rebranded, simplified version of a research paper. There are many other articles like it, and they intend to simplify and sensationalize (to the degree that they can argue plausible deniability) something outrageous.

This entire article; the webpage, the work of the author, the words the article is composed of, could easily be reduced to a simple statement: "People who are more willing to take a risk on an unusual product are more willing to take a risk in multiple categories." This such an obvious conclusion that the publisher of this article should be tried for conspiracy and fraud. A child could come to this realization.

This is clickbait, plain and simple. Furthermore, its insulting. I look forward to the day that those who publish these article lose their incentive to do so.

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