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Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

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41–50 of 222 posts

Re: Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

#41
post #7

Maybe a surgeon is more likely to be assigned to a risky surgery on an elderly patient when it's the surgeon's birthday.

I suspect a causation along those lines would be that surgeons are less likely to push back surgeries to the day after their birthday if they're worried that the patient may soon become too sick to operate on.

Re: Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

#43
post #5

> Research on judges has yielded similar results. It has found, for example, that external factors as diverse as outdoor temperatures and sports results can influence judges’ decisions. When I hear of these funky effects I always wonder how they relate to AI. Presumably this is somehow related to some kind of lossy compression of the state of the world, maybe similar to principal components[0]? Where the "I feel grum…

For human beings: How about simple plain distraction as the problem?

If you refer to AI there are many examples where the training data is biased. One funny example was enemy tank recognition that saw enemies whenever there was gloomy weather, because the sample images of enemy tanks all where shot at such weather conditions to make them appear sinister to human eyes.

If you refer to a mental model, I guess it might simply be a resource management problem. Just because we do not experience the distraction actively it does not mean it is not there. How exactly distraction is compensated is irrelevant to this explanation. Explaining this with mathematical terms is probably pretty arbitrary and leads to framing (in a psychological sense). But I also like speculating on AI ;)

Re: Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

#45
post #7

Maybe a surgeon is more likely to be assigned to a risky surgery on an elderly patient when it's the surgeon's birthday.

Or they simply decline non risky surgeries because they want to take a day off or leave earlier.

Ye even if they just decline overtime on their birthday and prioritize worse off patient during working hours this stat would show up.

Re: Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

#46
post #41
post #7

Maybe a surgeon is more likely to be assigned to a risky surgery on an elderly patient when it's the surgeon's birthday.

I suspect a causation along those lines would be that surgeons are less likely to push back surgeries to the day after their birthday if they're worried that the patient may soon become too sick to operate on.

[deleted]

Re: Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

#47
More than a decade ago we had to digitize some org’s patient cards into a database. After running few “test” queries against that dataset out of curiosity we found out that you’re less likely to be alcoholic-y if you live on 4-5 floor. The explanation I thought was that they hang out outside, but those who live higher have harder time to go home and prefer to not go. Building with 6+ stories usually have an elevator and “the problem” disappears.

Re: Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

#48
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I mostly agree, was trying to be polite.

They included a surgeon control variable in their model. https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/371/bmj.m4381.full.pdf

Yes, they say they did all this (and much more) in secondary analyses. I'm curious how does one find the eTables supplementary information ?

Edit: nevermind, found it: https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/suppl/2020/12/09/bmj.m4381.D...

Edit 2: it looks like solid, peer-reviewed research

Re: Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never took the day off on my birthday, but a lot of people do. So it might also make sense to ask why these surgeons are operating on their birthdays. Did they take the day off and went back to perform surgery on a critical patient? Are they overworked? Etc.

Is that a thing in the US, taking a day off on your birthday? To the best of my knowledge, nobody does that in Europe - certainly not in the Netherlands.

As far as I know it's not a thing here, either. I've known one or two that do, but in my experience the vast majority of people will celebrate their birthday on the nearest weekend, if they do so at all.

Re: Elderly patients 23% more likely to die if surgery is on the surgeon’s birthday

#50

> They also found that some surgeons did not work on their birthdays Is this partially that better/more experienced/senior/more affluent doctors are taking their birthday off, hence people getting more junior doctors? It would be interesting to see how many more people die on a particular surgeons birthday compared with the rest of their year, rather than the birthday of the surgeon a patient gets.

Those that are working on their birthday also more likely to do so under emergency situations...

Are they? Sounds odd that the norm would be for people to take birthdays off.
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