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The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

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Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#41

Post by pmiller2 »

eCa wrote: post #36
pmiller2 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it take into account that more people tend to die in December, January, and February than other months? In other words, did they adjust December properly? https://www.acsh.org/news/2019/07/10/more-people-die-winter-...

I agree that we can't look at the whole year until it's over, due to the irregular level of spread throughout the year. However, it's interesting to note that during the first ten weeks of 2020, 8% fewer people died in Sweden compared to the average of 2015-2019, and 2020 had in fact the lowest number of deaths of the last six years[1] during the first ten weeks of each year. [1] https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statis…

Well, that does pose a bit of a problem comparing across years, doesn't it? I'd like to see this sort of statistical analysis done after the calendar flips over to 2021, taking into account the trend of fewer deaths per year, so we could see if there is a "COVID spike" in the data, and what the magnitude of it is.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#42

Post by x87678r »

samatman wrote: post #28

The interesting question, to me, is whether we will see a visible spike in all-cause mortality for, let's say, 2020-2025. COVID-19 is particularly hard on the elderly, which is by no means an inevitable fact about epidemics. Every person who dies of this disease would have lived longer, which makes their death a tragedy: but how much longer? Cards on the table: my suspicion is that we won't. I could be wrong, particu…

Add to that the health complications of missed cancer scans, "quarantine 15" weight gain, economic turmoil, lost education, drug addiction and mental health. I'm guessing middle aged people's death rates will be increasing the next few years with cancer, heart disease and suicides all increasing.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#43

Post by IvyMike »

marcell wrote: post #2

This really depends on how far back you look. I was looking at the data for Sweden the other day. If you look at the last 20 years in terms of overall mortality, 2020 is right around the middle: https://mobile.twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1295269941109764... It's certainly more than last year, or the year before that, but it's not an outlier for the last two decades.

Sweden had pretty good numbers over the summer, but sadly have a spike of cases over the last month. Essentially half of the total covid cases in Sweden have occurred in time. So with some lag, I'd expect another jump in deaths soon, too.

The twitter thread linked above is from August, so definitely does not account for these rapidly changing numbers.

(Recent data is available all over the place--here's one source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ )

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#44

Post by fairity »

marcell wrote: post #14
fairity wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you zoom out 200 years, this year's mortality looks awesome! Yes, the world has become a safer place to live in over the years. Given the downward trend in age adjusted deaths per million over time, it makes a lot of sense to compare only the most recent years to 2020. See here to compare monthly mortality rates for every country in 2020 to the the prior 5 year period: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-c…

I think looking at the last 20 years is pretty reasonable. All the years are within my lifetime. I agree we should not zoom out for the last 200 years. If the data only looks bad when you look at 5 year window, and not 20 year window, that seems like a pretty fragile argument.

To get a better idea of why zooming out 20 years isn't reasonable, take a look at the past 120 years in the US (Sweden's numbers likely follow the same trajectory): https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/mortality-trends...

Directly comparing 2000 to 2020 makes little sense given the consistent downward trend and magnitude of difference between 2001-2005 and 2015-2019.

Given the downward trend in adjusted deaths per million over time, a more reasonable approach is to average the last 5 years and compare it to 2020. Doing so, you will find that 2020 has ~750 more deaths per million in Sweden than prior periods. (Keep in mind this approach likely understates the affect of COVID on mortality rate due to the aforementioned trend).

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#45

Post by weaksauce »

jansan wrote: post #15
belval wrote: post #3

The part I found interesting was the number of death from flu and pneumonia: 5 year average: 28,140 deaths 2020 so far: 18,325 deaths (does not include November and December!) COVID 2020: 53,675 deaths So while it does seem to be killing some people who would've died from the flu/pneumonia anyway, it's still nearly double the 5 year average which would make it one hell of a bad flu strain.

In Germany the number of deaths from COVID-19 is below the number of people who died from influenza in 2017/2018. So far COVID-19 klilled about 13000 people, while the official numbers for influenza 2017/18 is between 20000 and 25000.

the reason is they instituted lockdowns and better leadership through crisis. flu is transmitted pretty much identically to covid so any mitigation that slows down covid by nature slows down the flu. coupled with a vaccine that is moderately effective you have a much lower incidence rate of the flu occurring and killing.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#47

Post by pmiller2 »

anoncake wrote: post #32
pmiller2 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure? From https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/... : > In this study of a cohort of German patients recently recovered from COVID-19 infection, CMR revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and time from the original diagnosis. These…

> Obviously, this study doesn't say anything about truly long-term consequences of COVID Exactly. And it's insane to just assume there is long-term damage with no evidence whatsoever. Also, it would likely be possible to say something about actual long-term damage if it existed by monitoring patients' recovery and extrapolating.

How about this, then. From https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-hidden-long-term-cog... :

> There is one inevitable conclusion from these studies: COVID infection frequently leads to brain damage — particularly in those over 70. While sometimes the brain damage is obvious and leads to major cognitive impairment, more frequently the damage is mild, leading to difficulties with sustained attention.

> Although many people who have recovered from COVID can resume their daily lives without difficulty — even if they have some deficits in attention — there are a number of people who may experience difficulty now or later. One recently published paper from a group of German and American doctors concluded that the combination of direct effects of the virus, systemic inflammation, strokes, and damage to bodily organs (like lungs and liver) could even make COVID survivors at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease in the future. Individuals whose professions involve medical care, legal advice, financial planning, or leadership — including political leaders — may need to be carefully evaluated with formal neuropsychological testing, including measures of sustained attention, to assure that their cognition has not been compromised.

I think brain damage counts as "long-term damage," don't you?

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#48

Post by anoncake »

pmiller2 wrote: post #47
anoncake wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Obviously, this study doesn't say anything about truly long-term consequences of COVID Exactly. And it's insane to just assume there is long-term damage with no evidence whatsoever. Also, it would likely be possible to say something about actual long-term damage if it existed by monitoring patients' recovery and extrapolating.

How about this, then. From https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-hidden-long-term-cog... : > There is one inevitable conclusion from these studies: COVID infection frequently leads to brain damage — particularly in those over 70. While sometimes the brain damage is obvious and leads to major cognitive impairment, more frequently the damage is mild, leading to difficulties with sustained attention. > Although many p…

No. The brain is an organ, not a span of time.

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#49

Post by fairity »

0-_-0 wrote: post #35
Spare_account wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about other countries?

Other coutries used lockdowns.

Sweden basically did a lockdown - it just wasn't state-mandated.

If you look at the mobility data [1], you'll see that Sweden followed a very similar trend to its neighbors, and actually maintained lower mobility after other state-mandated lockdowns let up.

[1] https://www.teliacompany.com/sv/om-foretaget/uppdatering/mob...

Re: The number of people dying is not the same as in any other year

#50

Post by anewguy9000 »

what these numbers and the media and your average joe terrified of dying seem to miss is something thats qualitative, not quantitative: quality of life. length of life could be enhanced for many, safe and securely shackled to a bed in a quasi-coma with a feeding tube down your throat. such a person may very well ask to die. it pains me to see ederly and terminally ill people saying goodbye to loved ones on zoom connections. to me, that is a crime against humanity, in the name of safety and security. there are others. we are in a difficult place, to be sure, but how we live matters. but nobody talks about this very basic concept without fear of being labelled a "covidiot".
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