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Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

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Re: Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

#41
post #35
post #28

I've worked in lots of big corps as a consultant. Every one raced to harness the power of "big data" ~7 years ago. They couldn't hire or spend money fast enough. And for their investment they (mostly) got nothing. The few that managed to bludgeon their map/reduce clusters in to submission and get actionable insights discovered... they paid more to get those insights than they were worth! I think this same thing is ha…

This is sadly so consistent with what I'm seeing at a big corporation. We are working so hard to make a centralized ML platform, get our data up to par, etc. but so many ML projects either have no chance of succeeding or have so little business value that they're not worth pursuing. Everyone on the development team for the project I'm working on is silently in agreement that our model would be better off being replac…

Being mostly disconnected from the fruits of your labor while being incentivized to turn your resume into buzzword bingo causes bad technology choices that hurt the organization, what a surprise.

Re: Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

#42
post #14
post #10

the fact that he doesn't allow people to answer his tweets making data-less claims like this is really a problem

He labels anyone who criticizes him as a troll. Unfortunately he is a public figure in the ML space and does have his share of trolls, but doesn't take too well to even well thought out replies.

That and he makes these tweets about threats and insults from "people using Pytorch" and the TensorFlow/Keras vs Pytorch "debate" without taking a screenshot or actually showing any kind of proof.

He seems pretty oblivious to the fact that simply not mentioning them would make the problem go away as no one beside him seems to actually care.

Re: Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

#43
post #28

I've worked in lots of big corps as a consultant. Every one raced to harness the power of "big data" ~7 years ago. They couldn't hire or spend money fast enough. And for their investment they (mostly) got nothing. The few that managed to bludgeon their map/reduce clusters in to submission and get actionable insights discovered... they paid more to get those insights than they were worth! I think this same thing is ha…

"Like Big Data, I think we'll see a few companies execute well and actually get some value, while most will just jump to the next shiny thing in a year or two."

Here's another aspect - in many places nobody listens to the actual people doing the work. In my last job I was hired to lead a Data Science team and to help the company get value of Stats/ML/AI/DL/Buzzword. And I (and my team) were promptly overridden on every decision of what projects an expectations were realistic and what were not. I left, as did everybody else that reported to me, and we were replaced by people who would make really good BS slides that showed what upper management wanted to see. A year after that the whole initiative was cancelled.

Back in 2000 I was in a similar position with a small company jumping on the internet as their next business model. Lots of nonsense and one horrible web based business later, the company failed.

It's the same story over and over again. Some winners, lot of losers, many by self-inflicted wounds.

Re: Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

#44
post #28

I've worked in lots of big corps as a consultant. Every one raced to harness the power of "big data" ~7 years ago. They couldn't hire or spend money fast enough. And for their investment they (mostly) got nothing. The few that managed to bludgeon their map/reduce clusters in to submission and get actionable insights discovered... they paid more to get those insights than they were worth! I think this same thing is ha…

I've seen similar patterns with clients and companies I've worked at as well. My experience was less that ML wasn't useful, it's just that no organization I worked with could really break down the silos in order for it to work. Especially in ML, the entire process from data collection to the final product and feedback loop needs to be integrated. This is _really_ difficult for most companies.

Many data scientists I knew were either sitting on their hands waiting for data or working on problems that the downstream teams had no intention of implementing (even if they were improvements). I still really believe that ML (be it fancy deep learning or just evidence driven rules-based models) will effectively be table stakes for most industries in the upcoming decade. However, it'll take more leadership than just hiring a bunch of smart folks out of a PhD program.

Re: Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

#45
post #35
post #28

I've worked in lots of big corps as a consultant. Every one raced to harness the power of "big data" ~7 years ago. They couldn't hire or spend money fast enough. And for their investment they (mostly) got nothing. The few that managed to bludgeon their map/reduce clusters in to submission and get actionable insights discovered... they paid more to get those insights than they were worth! I think this same thing is ha…

This is sadly so consistent with what I'm seeing at a big corporation. We are working so hard to make a centralized ML platform, get our data up to par, etc. but so many ML projects either have no chance of succeeding or have so little business value that they're not worth pursuing. Everyone on the development team for the project I'm working on is silently in agreement that our model would be better off being replac…

> Everyone on the development team for the project I'm working on is silently in agreement that our model would be better off being replaced by a well-managed rules engine

That was one of the better insights with our team. We should measure the value-add of ML against a baseline that is e.g. a simple rules engine, not against 0. In some cases that looked appealing (‘lots of value by predicting Y better’) it turned out that a simple Excel sort would get us 90-98% of the value starting tomorrow. Investing an ML team for a few weeks/months then only makes sense if the business case on getting from 95% to 98% is big enough in itself. Hint: in many cases it isn’t.

Re: Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

#46
post #28

I've worked in lots of big corps as a consultant. Every one raced to harness the power of "big data" ~7 years ago. They couldn't hire or spend money fast enough. And for their investment they (mostly) got nothing. The few that managed to bludgeon their map/reduce clusters in to submission and get actionable insights discovered... they paid more to get those insights than they were worth! I think this same thing is ha…

Ironically, I worked on a product that had a classic use case for machine learning during this time period and still had great difficulty getting results.

It was difficult to attract top ML talent no matter how much we offered. Everyone wanted to work for one of the big, recognizable names in the industry for the resume name recognition and a chance to pivot their way into a top role at a leading company later.

Meanwhile, we were flooded with applicants who exaggerated their ML knowledge and experience to an extreme, hoping to land high paying ML jobs through hiring managers who couldn’t understand what they were looking for. It was easy to spot most of these candidates after going through some ML courses online and creating a very basic interview problem, but I could see many of these candidates successfully getting ML jobs at companies that didn’t know any better. Maybe they were going to fake it until they made it, or maybe they were counting on ML job performance being notoriously difficult to quantify on big data sets.

Dealing with 3rd party vendors and consulting shops wasn’t much better. A lot of the bigger shops were too busy with never ending lucrative contracts to take on new work. A lot of the smaller shops were too new to be able to show us much of a track record. Their proposals often boiled down to just implementing some famous open source solution on our product and letting us handle the training. Thanks, but we can do that ourselves.

I get the impression that it is (or was) more lucrative to start your own ML company and hope for an acquisition than to do the work for other companies. We tried to engage with several small ML vendors in our space and more than half of them came back with suggestions that we simply acquire them for large sums of money. Meanwhile, one of the vendors we engaged with was acquired by someone else and, of course, their support dried up completely.

Ultimately we found a solution from a vendor that had prepared a nice solution for our exact problem.the contracts were drawn up in a way that wouldn’t be too disastrous if (when?) they were acquired.

I have to wonder if an industry-wide slowdown to the ML frenzy is exactly what we need to give people and companies time to focus on solving real problems instead of just chasing easy money.

Re: Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

#47

I observe the state of the art on most Nlp tasks since many years: In 2018,2019 there was huge progress made each year on most tasks. 2020,except for a few tasks have mostly stagnated... NLP accuracy is generally not production ready but the pace of progress was quick enough to have huge hopes. The root cause of the evil is: Nobody has build upon the state of the art pre trained language: XLnet while there are hundre…

It'd be ironic if your comment was generated by GPT-3. But forget GPT-3. In 10 years, looking back at AI history, the year 2020 will probably be viewed as the point separating pre GPT-4 and post GPT-4 epochs. GPT-4 is the model I expect to make things interesting again, not just in NLP, but in AI.

Re: Deep learning job postings have collapsed in the past six months

#50
post #35
post #28

I've worked in lots of big corps as a consultant. Every one raced to harness the power of "big data" ~7 years ago. They couldn't hire or spend money fast enough. And for their investment they (mostly) got nothing. The few that managed to bludgeon their map/reduce clusters in to submission and get actionable insights discovered... they paid more to get those insights than they were worth! I think this same thing is ha…

This is sadly so consistent with what I'm seeing at a big corporation. We are working so hard to make a centralized ML platform, get our data up to par, etc. but so many ML projects either have no chance of succeeding or have so little business value that they're not worth pursuing. Everyone on the development team for the project I'm working on is silently in agreement that our model would be better off being replac…

> or have so little business value that they're not worth pursuing

It seems that I'm inverted from you. The Machine part of Machine Learning is likely of high business value, but the Learning part is the easier and better solution.

We do a lot of hardware stuff and our customers are, well let's just say they could use some re-training. Think not putting ink in the printer and then complaining about it. Only much more expensive. Because the details get murky (and legal-y and regulation-y) very quickly, we're forced to do ML on the products to 'assist' our users [0]. But in the end, the easiest solution is to have better users.

[0] Yes, UX, training, education, etc. We've tried, spent a lot of money on it. It doesn't help.

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