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Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

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Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#41

Post by thinkcontext »

The synergy of using AWS ground stations for customers as well as their own use is an interesting advantage. SpaceX has to spend on ground stations and won't make it up until their service goes online, while Amazon can begin recovering their costs right away. And it just plugs in to all their other AWS services as well. Plus Amazon of course has all the best on the ground network infrastructure already in place, SpaceX will have to develop that.

Is there any indication of how many customers they have or how much revenue they get from it?

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#42

Post by rurounijones »

shantara wrote: post #21
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

> ...BO needs to actually launch something to orbit... And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled. To put this timeframe in context, Blue Origin was founded in 2000 and has yet to achieve a single orbital flight.

> And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled.

I am curious what would happen here. Lets say they get 45% of their satellites up and miss the mark.

Do we just end up with a hundres of useless satellites drifting in space doing nothing or are they forced to sell (Who would buy) or?

This seems like onf of those PR disasters in the making for the FCC in terms of space pollution with no benefit.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#43

Post by [deleted] »

zie wrote: post #39
shantara wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...BO needs to actually launch something to orbit... And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled. To put this timeframe in context, Blue Origin was founded in 2000 and has yet to achieve a single orbital flight.

If we assume: * BO rocket 2x the cargo size * Satellites same size/weight as starlink 120 sats per launch(vs F9's 60). If they have to launch 1618 by 2026, that means they need 14 launches in 6 years. If they only need 1/2 the 1618, they need 7 launches in 6 years. So I think 7 launches(840 sats) it's still in the realm of possibility, but they have to execute everything pretty much flawlessly to make it happen. They…

[deleted]

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#44

Post by shantara »

zie wrote: post #39
shantara wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...BO needs to actually launch something to orbit... And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled. To put this timeframe in context, Blue Origin was founded in 2000 and has yet to achieve a single orbital flight.

If we assume: * BO rocket 2x the cargo size * Satellites same size/weight as starlink 120 sats per launch(vs F9's 60). If they have to launch 1618 by 2026, that means they need 14 launches in 6 years. If they only need 1/2 the 1618, they need 7 launches in 6 years. So I think 7 launches(840 sats) it's still in the realm of possibility, but they have to execute everything pretty much flawlessly to make it happen. They…

My wording was ambiguous, so to clarify: their full constellation is 3236 satellites, 1618 is the half amount they need to launch until 2026.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#45

Post by JackFr »

darksaints wrote: post #36
caiobegotti wrote: post #4

"If Kuiper succeeds [...]" That's the biggest if clause you will ever see about this because in order for it to succeed at all BO needs to actually launch something to orbit at least once before we talk about success of a commercial product on top of their rockets. I follow up SpaceX quite closely, I admit, but any news about products that absolutely depend on the launch capability of BO is vaporware at most and most…

Only tangentially related to your comment, but I find it interesting enough to comment anyway. Jeff Bezos is literally the wealthiest man alive, and by some measures, the wealthiest that has ever lived. He could literally buy anything he could ever want. Most people would have gladly retired and lived whatever life they wanted to, and they would have done it billions of dollars ago. And so, the fact that he hasn't re…

> And all I can infer at this point is that his biggest desire is to be Elon Musk.

That's more an indication of your small thinking and limited imagination rather than Jeff Bezos' motivation.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#46

Post by 51Cards »

Additionally I think replicating AWS is much easier these days than replicating the entire technology stack needed to competatively launch / maintain an entire fleet of satellites. Replicating AWS is a solved problem... throw money at it and you can build data center services. Affordably building and launching satellites at scale is much harder.

Seems like SpaceX matching AWS would take much less effort than the reverse.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#47

Post by paulsutter »

Bizarre claim. In what way would Starlink have any less access to AWS? Its... the internet

> “If Kuiper succeeds, Amazon can not only offer global satellite broadband access—it can include that access as part of its Amazon Web Services (AWS), which already offers resources for cloud computing, machine learning, data analytics, and more”

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#48

Post by someperson »

zie wrote: post #39
shantara wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...BO needs to actually launch something to orbit... And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled. To put this timeframe in context, Blue Origin was founded in 2000 and has yet to achieve a single orbital flight.

If we assume: * BO rocket 2x the cargo size * Satellites same size/weight as starlink 120 sats per launch(vs F9's 60). If they have to launch 1618 by 2026, that means they need 14 launches in 6 years. If they only need 1/2 the 1618, they need 7 launches in 6 years. So I think 7 launches(840 sats) it's still in the realm of possibility, but they have to execute everything pretty much flawlessly to make it happen. They…

Amazon's obligation to "launch at least half of the total by 2026 to retain the operating license the FCC has granted the company" is designed to stop squatting on the license without delivering service, and it's with the US government NOT the International Telecommunication Union.

If Amazon has shown at least some launches done in good faith, expect the FCC to be VERY lenient if Amazon don't meet their goal of launching 1618 out of 3236 satellites.

Though if in the year 2026 Amazon has missed their target by a significant amount, expect SpaceX to sue to try to get the spectrum partially re-allocated so they can leverage it for their (likely already fully operational) Starlink service.

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#49

Post by pmontra »

> Ka band (26.5 to 40 gigahertz)

I confess I didn't research it before asking but how does it withstand the attenuation due to bad weather, rain and storms. OK, at worst it should penetrate about 10 km of clouds and rains and an antenna on the ground could be farther away than that, but the source of the signal is at least 10 times more distant (100 times weaker for the same power?)

Re: Amazon’s Project Kuiper is more than the company’s response to SpaceX

#50

Post by shantara »

rurounijones wrote: post #42
shantara wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...BO needs to actually launch something to orbit... And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled. To put this timeframe in context, Blue Origin was founded in 2000 and has yet to achieve a single orbital flight.

> And they need start launching soon. FCC rules give Amazon until 2026 to launch and start operating at least 50% of the licensed number of satellites - 1618 satellites - or risk their satellite constellation license annulled. I am curious what would happen here. Lets say they get 45% of their satellites up and miss the mark. Do we just end up with a hundres of useless satellites drifting in space doing nothing or ar…

Their license may be reduced to the number of satellites they've already launched.

> Failure to meet the milestone requirements of 47 CFR § 25.164(b) may result in Kuiper’s authorization being reduced to the number of satellites in use on the milestone date

[1] FCC authorization: https://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-authorizes-kuiper-satellite...

[2] FCC "Milestones" regulation for satellite communications: https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=2b427aaecc8c5bcb88...

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