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TikTok’s potential $588 per user valuation in Microsoft deal

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Re: TikTok’s potential $588 per user valuation in Microsoft deal

#41

Post by katbyte »

jjirsa wrote: post #17
simplertms wrote: post #8

The most interesting thing about this deal outside the obvious political drama in my opinion is that this will change Big Tech landscape overnight. Microsoft has done enterprise so well for so long but has always struggled on 'consumer tech' outside of its Windows OS. Acquiring a social media platform is going to catapault it into the heart of consumer tech. Question is will TikTok be a parallell arm or will it help…

Who created this lie that Microsoft struggled with consumer? Xbox was always consumer and is massive. A huge chunk of the Windows line was always about consumers. The office line straddled both. Hotmail was consumer first.

Xbox got lucky with the ps3, and is now struggling to remain relevant with the ps4/5 in my opinion and friend circles.

Re: TikTok’s potential $588 per user valuation in Microsoft deal

#42

Post by soared »

dasudasu wrote: post #37

Could anyone in the 90s and early 00s have imagined that the internet would end up being one big competition for who can monitor and track their users best, just to run the most efficient ads, and that this value would be in the hundreds of dollars per user?

That’s not even a good take. Clearly it’s not one big competition for that - you’re on HN right now which is not competing.

Re: TikTok’s potential $588 per user valuation in Microsoft deal

#44

Post by saltminer »

oefrha wrote: post #10
Abishek_Muthian wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Facebook and Google probably are out because of fear the sale will be disallowed because of their market dominance. Facebook okay, Google is not even a player in social networking unless you are referring to YouTube, since it is a video platform. But I feel, fear of competition laws is not the major delimiter in the whole Tik-Tok sale fiasco; This is state initiated after all.

Player or not I hope YouTube take a page from TikTok. Their recommendation algorithm is abysmal (my opinion of course, and the opinion of many people I've talked to; anecdata, but given that I've never heard anyone saying they're hooked on YouTube recommendations, while I've heard tons of people hooked on TikTok's, I'd say there's at least some truth in this claim) and hasn't seemed to improve at all for the past, I…

>while shoving more mid-roll ads into non-subscribers' streams (these days there are sometimes ten ad breaks in a twenty-minute video, think about it)

Except that's not Google's doing. YouTube does have an auto-placement option for mid-roll ads, but if you see more than 5 ad breaks, that's usually the uploader's own manual placement. In fact, if the ad placement seems natural, that's probably the uploader's own doing as well, as the auto-placement function is very inconsistent in recognizing good spots to insert ads.

Re: TikTok’s potential $588 per user valuation in Microsoft deal

#45

Post by panarky »

propter_hoc wrote: post #20

I can't believe I'm the first to point this out, but this article is kind of obviously wrong. The analysis in the article is like looking at Tesla on an earnings per share basis, when it's actually heavily priced on forward projected earning potential. Like Tesla, Tiktok is a growth stock. This valuation doesn't reflect its current value per user - it's baking in an implied doubling or trebling of its user base in so…

Assuming the 800 million user base trebles, is $196 per potential future user a reasonable valuation?

Re: TikTok’s potential $588 per user valuation in Microsoft deal

#46

Post by rasz »

propter_hoc wrote: post #20

I can't believe I'm the first to point this out, but this article is kind of obviously wrong. The analysis in the article is like looking at Tesla on an earnings per share basis, when it's actually heavily priced on forward projected earning potential. Like Tesla, Tiktok is a growth stock. This valuation doesn't reflect its current value per user - it's baking in an implied doubling or trebling of its user base in so…

I mean its not even close to broadcast.com $10,000 per user, and that one turned out great!

Re: TikTok’s potential $588 per user valuation in Microsoft deal

#47

Post by rasz »

jjirsa wrote: post #17
simplertms wrote: post #8

The most interesting thing about this deal outside the obvious political drama in my opinion is that this will change Big Tech landscape overnight. Microsoft has done enterprise so well for so long but has always struggled on 'consumer tech' outside of its Windows OS. Acquiring a social media platform is going to catapault it into the heart of consumer tech. Question is will TikTok be a parallell arm or will it help…

Who created this lie that Microsoft struggled with consumer? Xbox was always consumer and is massive. A huge chunk of the Windows line was always about consumers. The office line straddled both. Hotmail was consumer first.

Xbox still to this day is a net negative. Whole division has never turned profit if you consider investments. Lets not forget Xbox One launch fiasco with always online DRM, emphasis on TV services, no game resale. That cost them ~25% market share. https://www.vgchartz.com/article/442352/switch-vs-ps4-vs-xbo...

Re: TikTok’s potential $588 per user valuation in Microsoft deal

#48

Post by rasz »

Someone wrote: post #2

I think the valuation depends on there being multiple buyers because, if Bytedance doesn’t sell, they’ll lose those valuable customers. So, are there multiple suitors? If so, who? Facebook and Google probably are out because of fear the sale will be disallowed because of their market dominance.

Amazon rather curiously banned tiktok just to quickly walk that back, maybe the case of one hand not talking to the other.
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