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ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

reuters.com

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Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#41

Post by creaghpatr »

josephpmay wrote: post #19
jbob2000 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apps are easy to install... and easy to uninstall. Where's Snapchat these days? What about Vine? What about tumblr? These companies make apps to try to monetize a community, but communities are fickle and easy to scare off. If I were an investor, I'd value these apps for the computers in their offices and the code their developers write and that's it. Maybe $100mil if you get me on a good day. You can't value them fo…

Snapchat is doing great and making money. They're still worth over 33 Billion.

Undervalued at $33B in my opinion.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#42

Post by paulpauper »

rattray wrote: post #24
alehul wrote: post #14

Many are suggesting that TikTok would be overvalued at $50B. If that's the case, do you believe FB is overvalued at $662B? Instagram, as of 2018, was estimated to be worth around $100B on its own (with about 1b MAUs, versus TikTok's 800m). TikTok seems at least equally addictive, and its algorithm does a fantastic job at quickly showing good content that matches your interests.

In my personal experience, Instagram ads are shockingly good (they often hit me with something that I actually want) and Tiktok ads shockingly bad (I've never seen one I didn't swipe through immediately). Obviously Tiktok and their advertisers will be doing a lot of work on this, and they've only just begun, but I really wonder about the efficacy of the medium for ads. It seems like a much more difficult forum for th…

It depends how you count a user interaction. YouTube ads are pay per view. A view is defined as someone watching the ad for 30 second or longer, at which point the advertiser gets billed for a view (around 10 cents or so). However, only a small % of these views lead to a click to the advertiser's website. So although the PPV is lower than contextual CPC, it is about the same when one compares actual traffic to the website.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#43

Post by cj »

alehul wrote: post #22
pjc50 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

.. and how's the revenue?

Good question - TikTok generated $176.9m revenue in 2019, but it's still in its infancy in terms of generating revenue. Instagram, acquired for $1b in 2012, had $0 revenue. WhatsApp, acquired for $19b in 2014, had $10.2m revenue. Based on TikTok's usage-per-day and active users being comparable to Instagram, they could presumably generate ~similar revenue if focused on it. With these types of apps, growth comes first…

[removed comment to add the following]

Where are you getting the $176mm figure?

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#44

Post by creaghpatr »

14 wrote: post #39
snazz wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What fate are you referring to with Snapchat? I’m pretty close to the target audience for both Snapchat and TikTok and nearly everyone I know (edit: close to my age) uses both.

What is the age group they target? I am not 40 and don’t know a single person with snap anymore. None of my kids or their friends so is it like 15-25 year olds or who uses snap now days? Thanks

They have more 13-14 yr olds in the US than Facebook or Instagram; that was announced at their conference a month ago. Almost everyone under the age of 18 I know has it, idk about usage compared to apps like tiktok though.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#45

Post by eunos »

chvid wrote: post #17

This is from Twitter and might be a hyperbole or conspiracy: Overheard on current US war on Tiktok. A thread: Talks abt ban on Tiktok subsiding a bit because Tiktok in talks with General Atlantic and Sequoia to sell to a US shell company. US demanding that Tiktok technical staff be completely changed, AI algorithm be based in the US... Continued at https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1288284750273114112

> AI and tech team evaluated by NSA

Suppose that PRC considers to open the GFW but with the same requirements (AI and tech team evaluated by MSS). Would that be acceptable?

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#46

Post by chvid »

chvid wrote: post #17

This is from Twitter and might be a hyperbole or conspiracy: Overheard on current US war on Tiktok. A thread: Talks abt ban on Tiktok subsiding a bit because Tiktok in talks with General Atlantic and Sequoia to sell to a US shell company. US demanding that Tiktok technical staff be completely changed, AI algorithm be based in the US... Continued at https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1288284750273114112

Full thread:

Talks abt ban on Tiktok subsiding a bit because Tiktok in talks with General Atlantic and Sequoia to sell to a US shell company. US demanding that Tiktok technical staff be completely changed, AI algorithm be based in the US ...

US want both TikTok staff and the algorithm to be verified by a US technical committee which includes the NSA. US threaten to put TikTok on entity list that would prevent it frm run on Android or OS phone if it doesn’t sell to a US company.

The implication is that for any Chinese app with a lot of users abroad, US will now demand the code and the models or they will kill the app.

Some Chinese tech leaders nows think China needs a tech Manhattan project to build its own IT stack from scratch. It will be hard but can be done if China really tries esp when forced to the wall by US.

Some people are pretty sure US will sabotage any Chinese attempt to go it alone. Many in China believed US intelligence agencies behind 2015 XcodeGhost malware attacks on China to test whether they could screw w China’s software “supply chain” also a warning to Chinese.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#47

Post by mschuster91 »

hellomyguys wrote: post #34

50B would be a steal imo. Don't get me wrong, this is still the early days for TikTok, but as a platform, TikTok seems way more compelling and interesting than Instagram at this point. Especially for younger people who are tired of the social behavior that's formed on IG. Even though the user base is primarily younger folks, they're doing a good job of aging up too. Core product value is way easier to deliver than Sn…

> Especially for younger people who are tired of the social behavior that's formed on IG.

Eternal September: what has happened to Instagram will also happen to TikTok.

Additionally there is the very real risk that TikTok will be seen by governments as what it is: Chinese spyware. India has already banned it, I hope that the rest of the world follows suit.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#48

Post by ideals »

I'm more surprised this is actually moving forward. I thought the usual play is to delay things for as long as necessary until people lose interest and find a new target.

If they stalled until the election would there still be interest from lawmakers on this topic? Or is it topical for the moment because of China and Covid?

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#49

Post by levosmetalo »

collegeburner wrote: post #25
rydre wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's going to be bigger. I know most people dont use snap but they use tiktok. Everyone young uses tiktok. It's much bigger than snap could have ever hoped. TikTok is FAANG tier company. If I were the founder, I'd go the Chinese government and ask them to ban Tesla and put tariff on Apple in retaliation. Tell the U.S. to play free market like they claim. Or lost access for it's companies. TikTok deserves it's suc…

> Everyone young uses tiktok. It's much bigger than snap could have ever hoped. Interestingly, you'd think that, but it's dead wrong. I'd say about a quarter of people actually use tick tock, compared to almost all using instagram or snap chat. There's a "subculture" of people that use it and are massively active, and most others don't use it at all. This strikes me as a massive impediment to tick tock's growth in Am…

I'd rather have my data used by an "autocracy" on the other side of the ocean that can't reach me, then by a "democracy" that can get me and make mu life hell. If that foreign "autocracy" is an enemy of the "democracy", even better, since they are then less likely to ever share my data.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#50

Post by xwdv »

hellomyguys wrote: post #34

50B would be a steal imo. Don't get me wrong, this is still the early days for TikTok, but as a platform, TikTok seems way more compelling and interesting than Instagram at this point. Especially for younger people who are tired of the social behavior that's formed on IG. Even though the user base is primarily younger folks, they're doing a good job of aging up too. Core product value is way easier to deliver than Sn…

Tiktok is the way forward for social media IMO. The only thing I don’t like is how the demographics skew younger at the moment, but everything else feels like a true next-gen social experience. I’d put the valuation maybe at 100B.
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