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Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

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Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#41
post #5

20% YoY Revenue increase, 43% YoY Growth in Datacenter Segment. 76% Growth in Non-Volatile Memory solution, another 7% YoY growth in Client Side computing. This is truly amazing results. I get stabbed over at Anandtech every time I made an argument for Intel as an AMD investor. The Internet is full of Intel bashing comments but reality is Intel has been making record revenue quarter after quarter. For the not so good…

If there really is not further delay, then Intel will be fine. But their 10nm was initially only delayed by 12 months too. And then another 12 months. And another. Intel have big problems if they have those same delays again.

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#42
post #30

Aren’t these node sizes mostly marketing BS that can’t be compared across manufacturers anyway? If Intel’s products can compete on performance or price or power consumption then who cares what they call it?

Some of it is marketing BS, but it's hard to argue that AMD isn't benefitting hugely from TSMC's 7nm process. Likewise, Apple knows that they can get 5nm parts from TSMC this year for their phones and laptops and they know the kind of performance advantage they're going to be getting out of them.

Intel has stumbled a lot here and it's showing.

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#43
post #30

Aren’t these node sizes mostly marketing BS that can’t be compared across manufacturers anyway? If Intel’s products can compete on performance or price or power consumption then who cares what they call it?

The objective metrics are things like: transistors per square millimetre, power per billion transistors, frequency, SRAM bit-cell size, etc...

Marketing calls it "7nm+++super", engineers get graphs of power-vs-frequency.

E.g.: comparing transistor densities:

    Intel     14nm    38 MTr/mm^2 
    TSMC       7nm    97 MTr/mm^2
    Intel     10nm   100 MTr/mm^2
    Samsung    5nm   127 MTr/mm^2 
    TSMC       5nm   173 MTr/mm^2
    Intel      7nm   "higher than TSMC 5nm" (planned for 2022)
    TSMC       3nm   290 MTr/mm^2           (risk production in 2021)
This should make it pretty clear why Intel is going to struggle to be competitive: The majority of their products are stuck on 14nm, which has 22% of the transistor density of TSMC's bleeding edge product. They can't compete with the likes of AMD and Apple with such outdated tech.

It should also make it clear that Intel's 10nm node is basically the same as TSMC's 7nm.

However, from what I heard (I'm not an expert!), Intel's 10nm node is a "pain in the ass" to manufacture. The design phase is complex, the yields are low, etc...

For comparison, TSMC's 7nm is supposed to be a relatively "straightforward" process, and 5nm is actually an improvement in manufacturability. That is, it's easier to design and make a 5nm TSMC chip than a 7nm TSMC chip. That's actually a pretty big advantage, something Intel doesn't talk about much...

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#44

Intel is a company that's living on it's distribution legacy. Ask yourself - why do regular people still buy Intel PCs? Because they are easy to buy. A great non Intel hardware and software laptop+aio by AMD or someone else would be a mortal wound on $INTC.

This is a 2000s view of Intel that is not accurate in 2020. Look at the numbers. - 7% growth for consumer (the “Intel PCs” you mention) - 43% growth for data centers - 70%+ growth in nonvolatile storage (SSDs)... much of which goes into high end servers in data centers Will there be more data centers And cloud offerings in 3 years, or less? Many More! Will there be more or less PC sales in 3 years. For Intel it’s les…

A single socket AMD threadripper 3995WX (the "ECC" version just released) is likely going to destroy a dual socket Xeon 8275+ (the ones used for the Amazon C5 metal instance) in most benchmarks like the 3990X did, while running at roughly the same power and a fraction of the price. Once AMD convinces cloud providers that its ECC works just as well as Intel's, there's really nothing holding AMD back from taking a huge chunk of the server market.

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#45

Intel is a company that's living on it's distribution legacy. Ask yourself - why do regular people still buy Intel PCs? Because they are easy to buy. A great non Intel hardware and software laptop+aio by AMD or someone else would be a mortal wound on $INTC.

There are some now by AMD, of course, with the new 4900HS chips. Linus was fawning all over the Asus ROG Zephyrus G14 with the 4900HS. Then, we'll see Apple's ARM entries. I don't know that these are mortal wounds but they are certainly the thin edge. 4900HS is 25% faster than the i9-9880HK (Intel's fastest contender) and uses much less power.

There is a scandal around the Asus ROG Zephyrus G14. AMD version of it has sealed vents with plastic covers.

https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/1187443-asus-caught-bei...

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#46
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who would they order from? Keep in mind they are slightly behind Samsung in ic volume. Samsung is #1 and Intel #2. Almost double the volume of TSMC. It takes a few years to build a new plant. Literally impossible without a very long term plan... and when it’s over they lose control of their destiny. They can beg TSMC for more chips if they want to meet their sales targets, but maybe they’ll sell to Apple or Nvidia in…

Where are you getting that number for Intel? Everything I see has Samsung, TMSC, then Micron as the top in terms of wafer production. Intel is like 1/3 of TMSC which is still alot. https://www.eetindia.co.in/over-half-of-global-wafer-capacit...

Raw wafer counts aren't particularly relevant here, because you can't really re-tool a NAND or DRAM fab into a competitive logic fab. Based on those numbers, about a third of Samsung's wafer count is logic, putting them slightly ahead of Intel (logic and a bit of NAND). TSMC's wafer count (all logic, AFAIK) is higher than Samsung+Intel, but not all of that is on leading-edge nodes. TSMC 28nm and 16nmFF nodes are going to be sticking around for many years to come.

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#47
post #34
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As much as I enjoy seeing Intel falter for all of the anti-competitive practices it has employed in the past... I think them moving to outsourced foundries would be a huge move in the wrong direction for fab consolidation.

I feel the same about Samsung's Exynos mobile SoCs. While they are definitely worse than Qualcomm's, if they went away Qualcomm would be the only chip maker for Android flagships (excluding Huawei, but without Google play services they don't really count).

MTK anyone?

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If all Apple cared about was faster chips, they could easily call up AMD and move their platform there. It'd be a lot less work for them. Moving to their own ARM chips lets them gain tighter control over the platform, and not be beholden to Intel or AMDs roadmap or desire to implement specific features Apple wants.

> If all Apple cared about was faster chips Everybody _wants_ faster chips, but for most people, the chip is in idle state 99% of the time. Outside of the data center and serious gamers, chip speed has been fairly irrelevant for years.

This hasn't been irrelevant for years on mobile.

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#49
post #7

At some point Intel should just dump their own process nodes and go with TSMC. This is getting ridiculous.

For a long time intel had the best manufacturing capabilities. That was a competitive advantage. Just because you are trailing doesn't mean you will trail forever. They might not catch up, but they could catch up as well.

Re: Intel grew revenues in Q2 2020, but key manufacturing upgrade delayed

#50

Have any insider accounts of the 10nm debacle emerged, or is it still too soon?

This is 3rd hand, but I heard that the 14nm was rushed with a crazy schedule, and as a result the greybeards who actually knew everything all left. Intel is having to rebuild all that institutional knowledge from scratch again.

Sounds like they should've sent them "please take me back" bouquets with a stack of cash instead of fruit.
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