Live data from Hacker News

Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

docs.google.com

41–50 of 185 posts

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#41
post #36
post #25

The future is coming. In China. Energy: - Million-volt DC power transmission over thousands of kilometers is routine. - Solar panels get cheaper every year. - 46 nuclear reactors in operation, 11 under construction. Transportation: - 35,000km of high speed rail. - Several major cities, including Shenzhen (16 million people), use all electric taxis and buses now. - 600km/hr maglev train in test. Medicine: - First coro…

'mildly oppressive', while literally millions of Uyghurs are being led into nazi style concentration camp trains and hong kong is not free anymore. Or a few decades ago, they captured mothers, 'tied them up like pigs' and physically forced abortions and sterilizations on them.

Nitpicking, but this is not a few decades ago, its a few years ago. Enforced the one child policy by force in autonomous province, basically removing the enforcement power of the governor and city mayors.

[edit] To be clear, i'm not saying this is right, i'm saying that right now, the power is way too concentrated in Xi Xinping's hands.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#42
post #36
post #25

The future is coming. In China. Energy: - Million-volt DC power transmission over thousands of kilometers is routine. - Solar panels get cheaper every year. - 46 nuclear reactors in operation, 11 under construction. Transportation: - 35,000km of high speed rail. - Several major cities, including Shenzhen (16 million people), use all electric taxis and buses now. - 600km/hr maglev train in test. Medicine: - First coro…

'mildly oppressive', while literally millions of Uyghurs are being led into nazi style concentration camp trains and hong kong is not free anymore. Or a few decades ago, they captured mothers, 'tied them up like pigs' and physically forced abortions and sterilizations on them.

When you say "Nazi-style concentration camps" do you think millions are soon to be killed?

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#43
> There are people who say that death is natural to which I think the response always has to be that there is nothing more natural for us than to fight death.

I think this is an excellent quote, but it doesn't convince me. Death is one of the only things we humans all have in common. It is the only great equalizer.

Unless every human is able to live forever, I will remain skeptical about a death cure being a good thing for humanity. Sure, you can argue about defeating death by degrees (e.g. extending a lifespan to 150, 200 years) but again, if it isn't available for everyone, I can't see that going well.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#44

> Google also has $50 billion in cash. It has no idea how to invest that money in technology effectively ... if we're living in an accelerating technological world, and you have zero percent interest rates, you should be able to invest all of your money in things that will return it many times over. The fact is you're out of ideas. Idea possibly bad: Free market progress is a force in balance with consolidation of po…

In balance with? The free market is the mechanism for power consolidation, not its opponent. Companies merge and grow until they build a moat big enough to fend off their competitors and then the market enters nash equilibrium.

Growth (or anything chaotic, really) shakes up the stable condition, changes the rules, and lets new entrants compete with Goliath. That's why we covet it so much.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#45

On Page 92, under Biotech, >The problem that I remain the most passionate about is for us to make some real and continued progress in the fight against aging and death. But how does one help? Really. I've been in academia for more than 10 years. I've had done some really promising stuff and know people with pretty cool projects that are 1,000% worth pursuing. Yet I have found virtually zero support as I don't play we…

Would you please explain a bit further what you mean by politics of science and how it's agains't actually doing science?

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#46

On Page 92, under Biotech, >The problem that I remain the most passionate about is for us to make some real and continued progress in the fight against aging and death. But how does one help? Really. I've been in academia for more than 10 years. I've had done some really promising stuff and know people with pretty cool projects that are 1,000% worth pursuing. Yet I have found virtually zero support as I don't play we…

There are several funds and dozens of companies trying to solve this problem (appeared in the last 5 years or so). I would consider searching there.

I'm not even remotely related to biotech stuff, but I'm considering moving there in a couple of years just because it's the most important problem I could possibly be working on.

EDIT: "There" is the ecosystem around Aubrey de Grey (whatever you think of him personally).

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#47
post #25

The future is coming. In China. Energy: - Million-volt DC power transmission over thousands of kilometers is routine. - Solar panels get cheaper every year. - 46 nuclear reactors in operation, 11 under construction. Transportation: - 35,000km of high speed rail. - Several major cities, including Shenzhen (16 million people), use all electric taxis and buses now. - 600km/hr maglev train in test. Medicine: - First coro…

Ten years ago I'd agree, but I don't think outright genocide qualifies as "mildly oppressive". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_genocide_of_Uyghurs

[dead]

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#48
The premise of Libertarianism in this doc is flawed. The idea that fewer laws gives rise to freedom is a Conservative distortion. Fewer laws gives freedom to the most powerful few to do what they like to the rest. The freedom we need for social progress and innovation, is the freedom and rights of the productive class, ie workers, to help society through creative destruction. Their freedom and rights can only be provided through robustly defended and well-crafted economic opportunity laws, including a permissive patent & copyright culture. Since certain Conservative interests will always be opposed to certain creative destructions, when they are too powerful it doesn't happen. That's why autocratic empires don't develop at anywhere near their potential rate, except in the narrow channel they point themselves in (war for Nazi Germany, manufacturing for modern China). That's why the printing press languished in the Han Empire, but lead to the Scientific Revolution in less autocratic/fragmented Europe, where people were able to say heretical anti-establishment stuff by hopping between legal jurisdictions.

In jurisdictions where/when those laws have been well crafted, spectacular social progress has followed:

- in Athens, the crafting of the Solonian Constitution created broader property rights which lead to the renaissance that was Ancient Greece; which was later destroyed by the absolute rule of Alexander's heirs

- in Rome, the crafting of the Law of Twelve Tables lead to the Roman Empire; it was destroyed by Marcus Aurelius when he eliminated the last voting rights, handing hereditary power to his son

- in England, the crafting of Parliament led to the Industrial Revolution because it undid domestic Royal Monopolies; it has been continually eroded by Conservative interests over the centuries, today the UK is not epicenter of economic opportunity

- in the USA, the crafting of the Constitution designed a classless, more equal opportunity society, far from perfect, it nevertheless resulted in unprecedented economic growth resulting in the USA's dominance during the 20th Century; it almost died at the end of the 1800's as the robber barons sought to create monopolies that would define a new Conservative class system based on the wealthy people of that day; today it is under attack again by large companies who are eating/disappearing upstart competitors; Republican policies, and activist Republican judges are eroding antitrust. Libertarians want to disassemble what made America great, whether they know it or not.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#49
post #4

Thiel is interesting to me because he is so different than others in the SV bubble. Whether you agree with him or think he is the devil, at least he has independent views. I find a lot of people don’t think for themselves anymore.

I think it is his heavy introvert side, which focuses on reflection and strategy. (In the pseudo-personality type world, "INTJ"). Entrepreneurs are typically ENTP, or ESTP and are extroverted, jump out and figure it out types. They reflect a whole lot less - strategize less - and power through things more.

Re: Peter Thiel on Progress and Stagnation

#50

Why should I think this man has special insight into the state of the world? He is quite rich, that is true. But if anything, by definition that means he is deeply out of touch with the needs, desires, and problems of the vast majority of the people on this planet.

To play devil's advocate: for capitalists to remain capitalists, they must successfully allocate capital, which requires a knowledge of the "needs, desired, and problems" of the consumer class. And the stock market is a mechanism for transferring capital from inefficient allocators to efficient ones. That's the theory, anyway. In practice many capitalists accumulate capital in ways that are unfair and uncompetitive.

> which requires a knowledge of the "needs, desired, and problems" of the consumer class

> In practice many capitalists accumulate capital in ways that are unfair and uncompetitive.

I don't think this is the right binary. It's not a choice between "better allocation" or "unfair". In my lifetime I've seen capitalism reward exploitation, cruelty, and abuse, without having some unfair/noncompetitive advantage. Walmart pays domestic employees a non-living wage, and exploits weak labor and environmental laws and "free trade" to produce goods at lower prices, and uses weaknesses in the political system ($$$) to avoid paying taxes. That's pure capitalism working as intended, not dirty trickery.

Post reply on HN