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Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

nature.com

41–50 of 403 posts

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#41
post #21

Any article making such a claim need to start with explaining what evidence they have that human brains are not computing devices that can be replicated or simulated. Because absent evidence that there is something fundamental preventing us from one day copying the structure of a human brain and ending up with a working device, whatever claims they make are hand-waving.

I think you missed the main point, replicated economically. Given unlimited budget, I think simulating the human brain might be possible if one could use a powerful enough computer for evey neuron.

The article title makes an unqualified claim about realisation, and so it was what I responded to, but the article itself also makes the same strong claim:

> A closer look reveals that although development of artificial intelligence for specific purposes (ANI) has been impressive, we have not come much closer to developing artificial general intelligence (AGI). The article further argues that this is in principle impossible, and it revives Hubert Dreyfus’ argument that computers are not in the world.

This is not an argument about cost - the article argues that it is "in principle impossible".

Any argument about cost I think is also irrelevant: We know from the existence of the brain and how a brain is produced that it is possible to produce one relatively cheaply via biological processes.

It seems highly unlikely that our ability to produce an artificial brain will not eventually approach the cost of growing one, because the "worst case" scenario is for us to find ethical ways of growing brain matter via biological processes and hook them up to computers, and it would seem unlikely that we will not eventually find cheaper ways of doing so than growing full mammalian bodies with it, and that we can not find any ways of optimising the process.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#42
post #21

Any article making such a claim need to start with explaining what evidence they have that human brains are not computing devices that can be replicated or simulated. Because absent evidence that there is something fundamental preventing us from one day copying the structure of a human brain and ending up with a working device, whatever claims they make are hand-waving.

I think you missed the main point, replicated economically. Given unlimited budget, I think simulating the human brain might be possible if one could use a powerful enough computer for evey neuron.

The author explicitly stated that the main point is that the goal is fundamentally unachievable, regardless of economics or budgets.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#43
post #21

Any article making such a claim need to start with explaining what evidence they have that human brains are not computing devices that can be replicated or simulated. Because absent evidence that there is something fundamental preventing us from one day copying the structure of a human brain and ending up with a working device, whatever claims they make are hand-waving.

The Halting Problem definitely puts bounds on what an algorithm can know about another one. At least this should backup the empirical evidence why analytical approaches haven't gotten so far yet.

I don't know why you think the halting problem is relevant here. The halting problem equally applies to human computation, and it does not preclude our existence.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#44
post #5
post #2

I posted the article because it is thought provoking, although I disagree with it. The reason is for example statements like this "The real problem is that computers are not in the world, because they are not embodied." "And I shall argue that they cannot pass the full Turing test because they are not in the world, and, therefore, they have no understanding." First I think that whether something is embodied or not do…

My hunch agrees with the paper. Because computers operate on the rational numbers instead of the real numbers, they can never be embodied. They are always in a simulation...

> Because computers operate on the rational numbers instead of the real numbers, they can never be embodied. They are always in a simulation...

I read the exact opposite argument yesterday but not from an AGI perspective: https://getpocket.com/explore/item/a-new-theory-explains-how...

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#46
post #33

This article seems to be yet another long-winded attempt to say that human beings have some sort of "soul" or "vital essence" that computers don't, but since those ideas are out of vogue, it uses obfuscated language to make the same point without explicitly saying it. See: > which have allegedly shown that our decisions are not the result of “some mysterious free will”, but the result of “millions of neurons calculat…

It always mystifies me to what extent people insist on trying to hold on to this fantasy of free will, while remaining unable to define free will in a way that does not devolve to "magic" or some attempt to obscure a deterministic description behind smoke and mirrors. At least some of the latter (e.g. a portion of compatibilists etc.) will if pressed admit that their "free will" is an effect or illusion of mind layer…

The offender I hear most often now a days is trying to use Quantum Mechanics to bring free-will back into play. The idea being that if any part of nature is unpredictable, then that could be a mechanism for where free-will might come from.

Except that would be like saying your phone is conscious just because it gets bombarded by cosmic waves that sometimes cause bitflips. Just because the machine isn't 100% predictable, doesn't mean that those cosmic waves have any specific goal in mind.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#47
post #36

Is there a strong argument against the fact that every approach to AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) eventually becomes ANI (Artificial Narrow Intelligence)? In other words, as soon as a facet of AI (NLP etc) gets a specific name and context, it is no longer considered part of AGI.

Interesting idea! Future Me: A computer became better at my job, but I might still claim that it is not generally intelligent because it does not have the same kind of relationships to humans I have.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#48
post #39
post #21

Any article making such a claim need to start with explaining what evidence they have that human brains are not computing devices that can be replicated or simulated. Because absent evidence that there is something fundamental preventing us from one day copying the structure of a human brain and ending up with a working device, whatever claims they make are hand-waving.

>Any article making such a claim need to start with explaining what evidence they have that human brains are not computing devices that can be replicated or simulated. If X and Y appear dissimilar, the burden of proof is on he who would argue they are similar. If one contends a brain and a computer and the functions of each appear similar, then one is being disingenuous.

Surely the burden of proof is on someone claiming something is impossible? I skimmed the article but I didn't see any support for his argument beyond pointing to the limitations of existing technology, and asserting that these limits were insurmountable.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#49
post #33

This article seems to be yet another long-winded attempt to say that human beings have some sort of "soul" or "vital essence" that computers don't, but since those ideas are out of vogue, it uses obfuscated language to make the same point without explicitly saying it. See: > which have allegedly shown that our decisions are not the result of “some mysterious free will”, but the result of “millions of neurons calculat…

It always mystifies me to what extent people insist on trying to hold on to this fantasy of free will, while remaining unable to define free will in a way that does not devolve to "magic" or some attempt to obscure a deterministic description behind smoke and mirrors. At least some of the latter (e.g. a portion of compatibilists etc.) will if pressed admit that their "free will" is an effect or illusion of mind layer…

It always mystifies me that philosophical debates can even get that far when it's impossible to prove that a mind can know a truth because it begs the question.

It's hard to even follow that previous sentence with my own view because it presupposes its own conclusion: Some things you just have to take on faith. For me, the definition of free will is action outside of the constraint of fate. And I'm not sure if it's a fantasy or not, but if fate does not exist, I'd be much more likely to take it on faith that free will does exist. But again, the whole playing field of this discussion is denied because it presupposes that a mind can know a truth, and I've yet to see any reasoning that that can be proven, let alone an actual proof.

Re: Why general artificial intelligence will not be realized

#50
post #39
post #21

Any article making such a claim need to start with explaining what evidence they have that human brains are not computing devices that can be replicated or simulated. Because absent evidence that there is something fundamental preventing us from one day copying the structure of a human brain and ending up with a working device, whatever claims they make are hand-waving.

>Any article making such a claim need to start with explaining what evidence they have that human brains are not computing devices that can be replicated or simulated. If X and Y appear dissimilar, the burden of proof is on he who would argue they are similar. If one contends a brain and a computer and the functions of each appear similar, then one is being disingenuous.

I contend the brain by definition is a computer, and so that any claim that we can not produce an artificial one implies that we'll forever be unable to replicate a process that is repeated over and over by nature through simple biochemical processes.
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