H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S. • Hacker News Board

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#41

Post by arcticbull » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:04 AM UTC

paulgb wrote: post #33

arcticbull wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If only there were a word for the importation of minority labor and locking them into employment with their sponsor, effectively reducing their negotiating power for salary to zero... It really doesn't do that. To be fair, H-1Bs are supposed to be in-demand specialty workers, to meet the spirit of the program. That means they have, by definition, negotiating power. I've spent a lot of time in H-1 status and I have…

I've also had several employers (from a startup to a FAANG) tell me that an H-1B transfer would be no problem. I haven't actually done it, but I don't feel as mobility-impared as people seem to believe I should.

H-1B transfers are quick (14 days with premium processing), easy and you can file speculatively if you're looking at a couple of potential employers but are afraid it may not go through. Your current employer will not be notified and you do not need to move forward with the transfer if you change your mind.

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#42

Post by arcticbull » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:07 AM UTC

monoideism wrote: post #35

arcticbull wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If only there were a word for the importation of minority labor and locking them into employment with their sponsor, effectively reducing their negotiating power for salary to zero... It really doesn't do that. To be fair, H-1Bs are supposed to be in-demand specialty workers, to meet the spirit of the program. That means they have, by definition, negotiating power. I've spent a lot of time in H-1 status and I have…

Economists have researched that data, and consistently confirmed what the GP asserted: "Research by Daniel Costa, of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, and Howard University political science professor Ron Hira, found that 60% of H-1B workers receive lower-than-average wages for their job and region. Google, Facebook and Apple “take advantage of program rules in order to legally pay many of their H-1B worker…

"60% of H-1B workers receive lower-than-average wages for their job and region."

As opposed to 50% of the normal workforce which receives lower-than-average wages by definition? Feels like that number, while significant, was framed to be sensational.

I'm curious how much of this is attributable to:

1. Technical skill level. Are they new grads or junior folks? Is this skew happening because the senior folks roll off onto green cards?

2. Soft skill level. Are employers taking on folks with language skills or management skills or cultural skills that need to be leveled up?

Does this delta level off over time once foreign workers achieve a certain level of domestic experience? Does it go away once they transfer to new jobs?

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#43

Post by woobar » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:08 AM UTC

jacobriis wrote: post #16

Looks like about 25% of software developers (broadly defined) are on H1B visas. 254k/365k of H1B petitions in 2017 were for computer occupations (those are predominantly in software development and computer programming). If we assume the proportion of actual workers is similar to petitions, we would assume there are about 400k H1B workers in software. About 1.5 million were employed in software development and comput…

Not sure why you only count two occupations from the BLS list [1] Total of all Computer and IT jobs in 2018 was 4+ millions.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#44

Post by jacobriis » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:12 AM UTC

woobar wrote: post #43

jacobriis wrote: post #16

Looks like about 25% of software developers (broadly defined) are on H1B visas. 254k/365k of H1B petitions in 2017 were for computer occupations (those are predominantly in software development and computer programming). If we assume the proportion of actual workers is similar to petitions, we would assume there are about 400k H1B workers in software. About 1.5 million were employed in software development and comput…

Not sure why you only count two occupations from the BLS list [1] Total of all Computer and IT jobs in 2018 was 4+ millions. [1] https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...

H1B petitions in computer occupations are predominantly in software development and computer programming.

About 30% are for "computer systems analyst" or "computer occupations, other" but I don't really buy most of those petitions aren't actually for devs. All software developers on TN visas (NAFTA/USMCA visas) are officially "computer systems analysts" for example.

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#45

Post by nos4A2 » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:13 AM UTC

monoideism wrote: post #37

sagarm wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those big tech companies already have international offices. Why wouldn't they have just expanded those offices? Investing in education etc is not really the job of companies in our capitalist system. They could not capture enough of the value to justify the cost, especially given the very long lead times.p

> Those big tech companies already have international offices. Why wouldn't they have just expanded those offices? Because they still want to hire lots of Americans. They just don't want to pay them market prices. So they bring in H1-Bs to lower wages. If they hired them overseas, there wouldn't be that effect: From the article above: "Research by Daniel Costa, of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, and Howar…

> Because they still want to hire lots of Americans. They just don't want to pay them market prices. So they bring in H1-Bs to lower wages. If they hired them overseas, there wouldn't be that effect:

Wow, it takes skill to come up with an argument like that. How do you imagine this conversation happens at MegaCorp_0 between HR and a Hiring manager?

HR: “I know you need someone who has Skill_0, but we want to reduce wages so it has to be a h1b...”

Manager: “But I already have Candidate_0..”

HR: “Nope has to be h1b!”

/s (in case it was not obvious)

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#46

Post by moultano » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:13 AM UTC

monoideism wrote: post #37

sagarm wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those big tech companies already have international offices. Why wouldn't they have just expanded those offices? Investing in education etc is not really the job of companies in our capitalist system. They could not capture enough of the value to justify the cost, especially given the very long lead times.p

> Those big tech companies already have international offices. Why wouldn't they have just expanded those offices? Because they still want to hire lots of Americans. They just don't want to pay them market prices. So they bring in H1-Bs to lower wages. If they hired them overseas, there wouldn't be that effect: From the article above: "Research by Daniel Costa, of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, and Howar…

The H1B program is the only reason the US has a tech industry at all. 75% of silicon valley tech workers are immigrants.

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#47

Post by gok » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:16 AM UTC

russellbeattie wrote: post #26

The H-1B program definitely needs more regulation to prevent abuse by companies (especially when it comes to salary negotiations). But if anything we should increase the number - it's not like those people are just going to not work if they don't come to the U.S. They'll just work in different countries, either driving more offshoring of labor by American companies, or just competing with them directly. It's in the U…

Increase the count and also the minimum salary. It's bonkers that the $65k minimum from 1989 has never been updated, especially given which cities many H1B immigrants need to live.

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#48

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:16 AM UTC

enraged_camel wrote: post #39

vikramkr wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They know how many have h1bs, but not how many of them are actually in the US. Which is just amazing. We need to bend over and let them take our privacy away so they can fight the terrorists apparently, but the same government doesnt even keep track of how many h1b holders are in the country? If the data of who every citizen is calling on their phones is so important for national security- how is it not worth the gov…

When was the last time you traveled outside the USA? Did you notice how Customs and Border Patrol did not check and stamp your passport, like they do for incoming travelers? Therefore, since there is no way to detect when an H1B worker leaves the country, there is no easy way to estimate the number of H1Bs currently in the country.

[deleted]

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#49

Post by akshat_h » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:17 AM UTC

rpiguy wrote: post #12

The H-1B program is terrible and needs to be reformed. It is supposed to temporarily shore up the supply of critically skilled workers that are in demand. While it does this, when the program was envisioned no one imagined H-1B visa holders working here for 10+ years. If only there were a word for the importation of minority labor and locking them into employment with their sponsor, effectively reducing their negotia…

H1-B has other issues but regarding H1-B working for 10+ years, it is mostly due to country caps for green cards.

H1-B do get sponsored green cards, at least for the non-startup companies. IIRC, any H1-B having more than one extension i.e. > 6 years has to have a green card application pending. H1-B doesn't have country caps.

The green card system however has per country caps, which impacts primarily people born in India, China, Mexico,El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Vietnam and Philippines. If you are born in Greece and come to USA on H1-B where a company sponsors green card for you, you would get it in around 1-3 years.

Source: Was born in India and also had a roommate from Greece who got green card in about 14 months after being in USA.

EDIT: Added El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Vietnam to list of countries impacted based on https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/v...

Re: H-1B: Government issues first-ever official estimate of visa population in U.S.

#50

Post by monoideism » Tue, Jul 07, 2020, 12:18 AM UTC

arcticbull wrote: post #42

monoideism wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economists have researched that data, and consistently confirmed what the GP asserted: "Research by Daniel Costa, of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, and Howard University political science professor Ron Hira, found that 60% of H-1B workers receive lower-than-average wages for their job and region. Google, Facebook and Apple “take advantage of program rules in order to legally pay many of their H-1B worker…

"60% of H-1B workers receive lower-than-average wages for their job and region." As opposed to 50% of the normal workforce which receives lower-than-average wages by definition? Feels like that number, while significant, was framed to be sensational. I'm curious how much of this is attributable to: 1. Technical skill level. Are they new grads or junior folks? Is this skew happening because the senior folks roll off o…

Actually, I think that number doesn't even really capture the problem. Because it doesn't indicate by how much those workers salary is lower than average. The studies I've seen on this suggest it's a significant gap. I'll see if I can find that study, and others.

>Does this delta level off over time once foreign workers achieve a certain level of domestic experience? Does it go away once they transfer to new jobs?

I'd be very surprised if it didn't at least improve. But it still results in suppressed salaries for American workers. And isn't some weird conspiracy that tech CEOs believe salaries are far too high and want to suppress them: we have emails of them discussing exactly that (in another context not involving immigration)

EDIT: I previously had some other suggestions, but I think the most beneficial and abuse-proof system for all involved would be to have the tech companies bid for visas (as many others have suggested). That should eliminate the potential for abuse.