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AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

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Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#41

This drives me mad. I have no idea why Amazon even bothers with the retail side. It barely pays for itself, they are already the biggest player by a mile, and there is no horizon in which economies of scale start paying off (the uptick of demand from Covid probably lost them money!) The only thing that makes sense to me is some political long play. The Amazon retail operation employs a lot more people in a lot more p…

[deleted]

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#42
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes this even more bonkers to me is this is from something most non-tech people haven’t even heard of.

I wonder what the equivalent is for tech people. What is an enormous industry-specific business we have never heard of?

The steel production and raw materials industry is a whole different world. I am not knowledgable in the area at all but a recent linkedin post by a friend was listing the biggest steel producers by country, I did not recognise any names except Tata from India and Thyssenkrupp from Germany.

Here is a list I found from a quick search, try to guess which country the biggest producers is based in or how many of top 5 you expect to have heard of before opening the link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_steel_producers

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#43
post #42
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the equivalent is for tech people. What is an enormous industry-specific business we have never heard of?

The steel production and raw materials industry is a whole different world. I am not knowledgable in the area at all but a recent linkedin post by a friend was listing the biggest steel producers by country, I did not recognise any names except Tata from India and Thyssenkrupp from Germany. Here is a list I found from a quick search, try to guess which country the biggest producers is based in or how many of top 5 yo…

I didn't even know Thyssenkrupp did things other than elevators.

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#44
post #42
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the equivalent is for tech people. What is an enormous industry-specific business we have never heard of?

The steel production and raw materials industry is a whole different world. I am not knowledgable in the area at all but a recent linkedin post by a friend was listing the biggest steel producers by country, I did not recognise any names except Tata from India and Thyssenkrupp from Germany. Here is a list I found from a quick search, try to guess which country the biggest producers is based in or how many of top 5 yo…

This is actually pretty amazing. I predicted that the top few would be US based companies but I hadn't heard of them because they are rounding errors. I was wrong about that but the first US based steel company on the list is in my neighborhood. I ride up to their plant on my daily bike ride.

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It barely pays for itself Because they're constantly reinvesting for even bigger economies of scale. All investors are well aware that Amazon can start turning on major retail profits at any time it chooses. But the more it grows first, the more entrenched it is, the fewer competitors remain, and the even larger those future profits will be. Seeing as AMZN's stock price has increased roughly 25% since COVID started…

"Constantly reinvesting for even bigger economies of scale." This may have made sense 5 years ago, but this doesn't make sense when their margins have only gotten lower and their number one expense is employees, which is a marginal cost. They are well into the "diseconomies of scale" territory. And there are more competitors now then when they started! > You don't seem to actually understand Amazon's business model a…

Perhaps Amazon is trying to be the major fulfillment provider as automation of order picking becomes more productive, and those employees are made redundant; a sort of "Netflix for warehouses" model (where Netflix went from mail fulfillment to online).

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#46
post #43
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The steel production and raw materials industry is a whole different world. I am not knowledgable in the area at all but a recent linkedin post by a friend was listing the biggest steel producers by country, I did not recognise any names except Tata from India and Thyssenkrupp from Germany. Here is a list I found from a quick search, try to guess which country the biggest producers is based in or how many of top 5 yo…

I didn't even know Thyssenkrupp did things other than elevators.

"In February 2020, Thyssenkrup AG's board announced that it would sell its elevator segment to Advent International ... "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThyssenKrupp

This just keeps getting more interesting.

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#47

This drives me mad. I have no idea why Amazon even bothers with the retail side. It barely pays for itself, they are already the biggest player by a mile, and there is no horizon in which economies of scale start paying off (the uptick of demand from Covid probably lost them money!) The only thing that makes sense to me is some political long play. The Amazon retail operation employs a lot more people in a lot more p…

> It barely pays for itself Because they're constantly reinvesting for even bigger economies of scale. All investors are well aware that Amazon can start turning on major retail profits at any time it chooses. But the more it grows first, the more entrenched it is, the fewer competitors remain, and the even larger those future profits will be. Seeing as AMZN's stock price has increased roughly 25% since COVID started…

> But the more it grows first, the more entrenched it is, the fewer competitors remain, and the even larger those future profits will be.

Of course, the longer the time horizon investors are considering, the greater the risk of someone disrupting Amazon's profits in that time frame.

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#48
post #18
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After working for a company that spends millions of VC money on AWS per year I can also say that infinite cloud scaling is a myth. We had all kinds of downtimes due to AWS over the years.

> We had all kinds of downtimes due to AWS over the years. No, you just had downtime, full stop. Failures are inevitable, regardless of whose datacenter you're using. Failure-tolerant architecture design minimizes (or eliminates, if you're lucky) the downtime caused by failures. I'm not saying that's easy or necessarily appropriate depending on the stage of your company, but foisting responsibility onto AWS is missin…

I am not "foisting responsibility". There are fallbacks and fail safes in place to mitigate such issues but that's not my point. My point is that they sell us a dream of infinite scaling, all managed and no more problems, which just isn't the case. I know, it's naive to believe that in the first place but the marketing certainly goes into that direction and some proponents spin this story all the time. Would the alternative be better? Most certainly not, but it's still a question worth asking from time to time considering the extra money spent.

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#49

This drives me mad. I have no idea why Amazon even bothers with the retail side. It barely pays for itself, they are already the biggest player by a mile, and there is no horizon in which economies of scale start paying off (the uptick of demand from Covid probably lost them money!) The only thing that makes sense to me is some political long play. The Amazon retail operation employs a lot more people in a lot more p…

> It barely pays for itself Because they're constantly reinvesting for even bigger economies of scale. All investors are well aware that Amazon can start turning on major retail profits at any time it chooses. But the more it grows first, the more entrenched it is, the fewer competitors remain, and the even larger those future profits will be. Seeing as AMZN's stock price has increased roughly 25% since COVID started…

Yeah, Amazon's operating income margin is about 15-20% before R&D expenses.

To GP's point though, there is only so much market capacity for Amazon's growth so there will be a point that investors think that Amazon would best be using it's cash somewhere else, including dividends. It happened to Apple and it can happen to Amazon.

Re: AWS’s Share of Amazon’s Profit

#50
post #42
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the equivalent is for tech people. What is an enormous industry-specific business we have never heard of?

The steel production and raw materials industry is a whole different world. I am not knowledgable in the area at all but a recent linkedin post by a friend was listing the biggest steel producers by country, I did not recognise any names except Tata from India and Thyssenkrupp from Germany. Here is a list I found from a quick search, try to guess which country the biggest producers is based in or how many of top 5 yo…

That is a lot of Chinese steel, at what looks to be about 25% of the total worldwide production, just by the companies listed in the top 41. It looks like possibly a majority of worldwide production isn't in this list (which seems to gut off at less than 10 million tonnes), so it's possible it's even higher, if there's a lot of small steel companies based in China as well.
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