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Idea Generation

blog.samaltman.com

41–50 of 146 posts

Re: Idea Generation

#41

Stay away from people who are world-weary and belittle your ambitions. Unfortunately, this is most of the world. But they hold on to the past, and you want to live in the future. Here's an idea - if most people are world-weary (not true in my experience), maybe you should go and find out why and then try to figure out what you can do to make it less so (get therapy in your case Sam Altman). What's your track record S…

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It’s important to be in the right kind of environment, and around the right kind of people. You want to be around people who have a good feel for the future, will entertain improbable plans, are optimistic, are smart in a creative way, and have a very high idea flux. These sorts of people tend to think without the constraints most people have, not have a lot of filters, and not care too much what other people think.

The best ideas are fragile; most people don’t even start talking about them at all because they sound silly. Perhaps most of all, you want to be around people who don’t make you feel stupid for mentioning a bad idea, and who certainly never feel stupid for doing so themselves.

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I worry that many will take away the wrong lesson, i.e. that every idea has potential, no idea is stupid. Many companies are trying to inculcate this into their cultures thinking they can replicate SV's success by being more open. I think most will quickly find this to be an untenable way to live, because it's only half the picture.

I think the real take-away is more nuanced. Open unconstrained environments tend to produce the very best ideas (not just good ideas), and it's important not to kill new ideas too early. That said, all those ideas eventually need to be tested against the crucible of reality. Generate lots of ideas, but be ready to ruthlessly edit and kill those that don't work in reality. As pg said, innovation is two-step process -- and those 2 steps (generate, then edit) are discrete, not to be mixed. High infant mortality during ideation means good ideas get killed. But loose or no filtering at all means you're throwing good money after bad.

My improv teacher tells me that to produce great work, we have to work out of abundance (lots of ideas), and also work out of failure (fail a lot). Abundance in itself is not enough, nor is failure on its own.

Re: Idea Generation

#42

I have always found that entire scenario very odd. How are you a start up founder if you don’t know what you want to start up? I always look at that like a soldier jacked up on adrenaline wearing an arsenal of ammunition ready to destroy the enemy having forgotten to ask who the enemy is or where they are. Lost. Maybe if they just start spraying ammo at everybody the enemy will suddenly make themselves known and some…

The problem with this way of thinking is that existing markets are probably efficient enough - meaning all easy ways to make a lot of money have already been exhausted. This means that any idea that you generate by encountering a problem and thinking of a solution is probably either too hard to implement or will generate relatively puny revenue stream (nothing to sneeze at, but probably not of much interest to VCs an…

John Carmack's success is due to id Software incubated at Softdisk. The reality of that success, at least in the beginning, was an already established stream of revenue, a ready assembled team, and proper leadership. The brilliance and innovation of Carmack came later. They had day jobs, revenue, and product/market fit already established before spinning out of Softdisk to launch id. That isn't enough to account for the super stellar success they would later enjoy, but it fully explains launching a successful business. There isn't any magic or secret sauce there.

> The problem with this way of thinking is that existing markets are probably efficient enough

Oh, that's certainly not true. The challenge there is the expertise to see the current dysfunction versus the risk of solving for it. Solving for the dysfunction often comes at competition for the limited resources required for current practice of art and rejection from just about everybody. Knowing this there is a choice to be made:

1. Sustain the current practice with current income and no change in risk

2. Proceed with the solution knowing that failure is probable and that a startup begins with a financial valley of death (burns cash without the revenue to make up for it) while knowing the greatness of the idea is financially irrelevant.

I say the greatness of the idea is financially irrelevant, because disruption requires some degree of originality and originality scares the shit out of people. That means the idea will burn money churning in frequent rejection until it achieves some manner of market assistance.

Re: Idea Generation

#43
> A good question to ask yourself early in the process of thinking about an idea is “could this be huge if it worked?” There are many good ideas in the world, but few of them have the inherent advantages that can make a startup massively successful. Most businesses don’t generate a valuable accumulating advantage as they scale. Think early about why an idea might have that property. It’s obvious for Facebook or Airbnb, but it often exists in more subtle ways.

This reminds me of David Heinemeier Hansson's talk at Startup School waaayyy back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CDXJ6bMkMY

The gist: funders tell founders all the time to catch a wave. Go big or don't bother. The reason is that the funder must have a big payoff and small outcomes don't cut it.

But there's plenty of room for a small, well-run company with no aspirations of getting bigger. I believe the analogy was: best Italian Restaurant in the city.

The other advantage of thinking smaller than "huge" is that success is so much more likely because the competition tends to be less intense.

Maybe the author and I have a different idea of "huge," but the examples suggest otherwise.

If you're looking for a community that embraces the small startup idea and has developed a lot of material for exploring it, check out Microconf:

https://microconf.com

Re: Idea Generation

#44
The problem I see is 9/10 startups have stupid ideas but manage to pocket millions before the company crashes and burns. How do you get ideas like that will let you live well, but not necessarily be a good business? Doing sensible businesses just isn't viable in SV these days.

> Stay away from people who are world-weary and belittle your ambitions.

OK maybe that just is me.

Re: Idea Generation

#45
Ideas become better when refined. Sometimes over the course of years. You can assemble a larger composite idea under the umbrella of a single vision, comprised of many smaller ideas.

There's of course a balance to be struck depending on the idea's scope and urgency. Both may change with refinement.

Idea generation is both a learned skill and intrinsic to a person's circumstance and psychology. Ample unstructured time, low amounts of stress, and an affinity for day dreaming tend to help. Over time you grow to actually enjoy deep thinking as recreation.

I've noticed whenever I'm focused on a particular idea, it kind of forms a lens that shapes my world view. Anything I then encounter I view as a puzzle piece, which my mind attempts to reconcile into the larger puzzle that is the foremost idea in my mind at the time. It's a very similar dynamic to PG's musings on the subject.[0]

[0] http://www.paulgraham.com/top.html

Re: Idea Generation

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this way of thinking is that existing markets are probably efficient enough - meaning all easy ways to make a lot of money have already been exhausted. This means that any idea that you generate by encountering a problem and thinking of a solution is probably either too hard to implement or will generate relatively puny revenue stream (nothing to sneeze at, but probably not of much interest to VCs an…

John Carmack's success is due to id Software incubated at Softdisk. The reality of that success, at least in the beginning, was an already established stream of revenue, a ready assembled team, and proper leadership. The brilliance and innovation of Carmack came later. They had day jobs, revenue, and product/market fit already established before spinning out of Softdisk to launch id. That isn't enough to account for…

> John Carmack's success is due to id Software incubated at Softdisk. The reality of that success, at least in the beginning, was an already established stream of revenue, a ready assembled team, and proper leadership. The brilliance and innovation of Carmack came later. They had day jobs, revenue, and product/market fit already established before spinning out of Softdisk to launch id. That isn't enough to account for the super stellar success they would later enjoy, but it fully explains launching a successful business. There isn't any magic or secret sauce there.

The point is that they could have all this, but without them capitalizing on the incredible wave of rising hardware performance we wouldn't be talking about them now. Big opportunities arise when the situation is dynamic.

> > The problem with this way of thinking is that existing markets are probably efficient enough > Oh, that's certainly not true. The challenge there is the expertise to see the current dysfunction versus the risk of solving for it.

Notice that I didn't state that there is no dysfunction, only that there are no easy opportunities to exploit it. The reality is that the world is full of dysfunctions but they persist not because people are lazy to fix them, but because our systems are stuck in the bad equilibria which are hard to get out of. Take healthcare for example. To anyone who went to a doctor even once the dysfunction is obvious. The system can probably be made 10x more efficient with fairly simple tweaks! But good luck implementing them - you will be stuck in the molasses created by regulation, incumbents and simple inertia of people unwilling to experiment with their health.

Re: Idea Generation

#47
post #37
post #24

> (By the way, it’s useful to get good at differentiating between real trends and fake trends. A key differentiator is if the new platform is used a lot by a small number of people, or used a little by a lot of people.) As a one-time founder, I feel embarrassed to have to ask this; but in the spirit of no-stupid-question and also that there's gotta be someone else wondering the same -- which one is the real trend and…

> It's better to have 100 users love you than 1 million kinda like you. The true seed of scale is love, and you can't buy it, hack it, or game it. A product that is deeply loved is one that can scale Interview with Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn, Altman goes more into his reasoning [0] https://mastersofscale.com/sam-altman-why-customer-love-is-a...

If they're all paying the same, I'll take the million thanks.

Obviously 'love' implies more attachment and longevity of subscription, but a million x even just once is still 10,000 hundred xs.

But maybe that's just my 'if I started a company I wouldn't be thrilled at the thought of taking VC money' perspective talking.

Re: Idea Generation

#48
post #5

How do you manage your ideas? I'm using a combination of Google Sheets, Notion, and a notebook. I rate each idea in Sheets using colors and I keep Notion and a notebook for research so that I don't think about an idea twice.

I keep most public: https://github.com/captn3m0/ideas . A few are in my WorkFlowy, but only because I haven't written them down properly. And then I have a section in my notebook for ideas. Stuff graduates from there to my GitHub (or gets built) I've always believed in swombat's quote on HN[1]: >There's no such thing as an original idea. Every idea worth having has been had thousands of times already. No point in kee…

That's a great attitude to have. Thanks!

Re: Idea Generation

#49
In my view, business ideas are formed out of life experience. They happen as a consequence of observing situations, working in specific industries, engaging in certain hobbies or entertainment.

I am confident that if I were required to make a dedicated effort to 'develop a startup idea' that was absent life experience, success would require more good fortune than if it were coming from a synthesis of experiences, observations and innovative thought.

YC already did an experiment, as Sam notes, that points to the need for some type of fertile idea space that gains nutrients from ones life experience. I've had a bunch of ideas, each more or less fleshed out, and some actually acted on. I stumbled on all of them because I was trying to solve a problem that I had personally experienced.

Re: Idea Generation

#50
> The most common question prospective startup founders ask is how to get ideas for startups. The second most common question is if you have any ideas for their startup.

You really can't come up with a better set up to an episode of Silicon Valley.

"I Want to start a start-up! But I have no idea what to start or how to start it. Can you tell me everything I should do?"

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