This is very strange to read from here in New Zealand, where life is fairly close to getting back to normal. I don't see any reason why our basic lifestyles should be permanently changed by this virus. As bad as things feel now, we will eventually get on top of the epidemic and in a few short years this period will be a distant memory. I'm not saying there won't be permanent changes - I believe this is a catalyst tha…
In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
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Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
On the other hand, the era after WWI saw the birth of the modern welfare state in Europe (first in the U.K., and then gradually across the rest of Europe), and WWII saw the United States establish itself as the pre-eminent global power, a position it hasn’t relinquished since. When it comes to global scale events, we have a tendency to overestimate the short term consequences and overestimate the long term.
> the United States establish itself as the pre-eminent global power, a position it hasn’t relinquished since. Well to be fair, it is working as hard as possible at throwing away that position right now...
Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#43My kids have been having their music lessons (cello & viola) remotely since the quarantine. For the advanced student, I can see 50% of lessons workable as remote, but not more than that. My kid may switch to every other lesson remote (two lessons per week at 45 minutes each). For the beginner, it doesn’t work that well, but I suppose it’s better than nothing.
But we need to figure out why the initial lessons are better in person than remote. It could be that small changes are needed in camera placement, or screens or something we haven't thought of. For many instruments you outline, it is how the bow or the instrument is held, this might be better online with the right tools, esp if you had multicamera pose estimation, it might not even need a teacher the majority of the…
You might need to adjust posture for instance, and while you could spend 5 minutes explain it verbally in sequences of “move your left arm 5 degree up, no, up! slightly more to the left, your right arm moved down, bring it back[...]”; it’s just a poor experience and waste of time compared to in person moving their body to the right position (especially for kids).
Same if you want to check muscle tension or force them to only use some part of their body.
Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#44This is very strange to read from here in New Zealand, where life is fairly close to getting back to normal. I don't see any reason why our basic lifestyles should be permanently changed by this virus. As bad as things feel now, we will eventually get on top of the epidemic and in a few short years this period will be a distant memory. I'm not saying there won't be permanent changes - I believe this is a catalyst tha…
Last I heard, New Zealand and Australia were planning on closing their borders for a long time except maybe to each other, because they seem to reckon that's the only way to preserve relative normality within the country: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52540733
Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#45I know this isn't the popular opinion, but aren't we blowing the virus out of proportion a bit? Don't something like 20-25% of all New Yorkers already have antibodies? Doesn't that show the virus isn't that dangerous? The body count would be in the millions by now.
The worry worts and the pansies have wrecked the economy.
Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#46It's a subtle distinction, but it's consistently surprising how small nuances in titles produce widely divergent discussions. A comment like https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23294773, to take an obvious example, is a reflexive objection to the submitted title ("may never operate in-person again") but the word "strictly" defangs that objection in advance. There are other comments in this thread that you can tell were mostly reacting to the submitted title, too, since they're arguing with something it said, rather than what the article says.
Why this is fun: it turns out that you can take a strict substring of the article title (in this case a tail) which solves the problem perfectly. That is my favorite category of title-shortening. Often the substring isn't obvious at first and you get a satisfying click when you realize it works.
Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#47This is very strange to read from here in New Zealand, where life is fairly close to getting back to normal. I don't see any reason why our basic lifestyles should be permanently changed by this virus. As bad as things feel now, we will eventually get on top of the epidemic and in a few short years this period will be a distant memory. I'm not saying there won't be permanent changes - I believe this is a catalyst tha…
Perhaps not this same Coronavirus, but make no mistake, our pre-lockdown lifestyle is fragile. Giving billions of people unfettered access to move between any two points on the planet in under 24 hours is a recipe for another swift pandemic.
Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#48I know this isn't the popular opinion, but aren't we blowing the virus out of proportion a bit? Don't something like 20-25% of all New Yorkers already have antibodies? Doesn't that show the virus isn't that dangerous? The body count would be in the millions by now.
My take, as a NYer, as someone working on a COVID project, as someone who so far has been lucky to only know of one serious hospitalization in my extended circle- it is exceptionally dangerous. I use the phrase "Russian Roulette" and I stand by that.
1% of likely-infected New Yorkers have died. Probably at least 80% of the NYC population remains at risk.
It does not just target and kill the elderly and infirm. Of teens and pre-teens, New York City has seen thousands of infections, hundreds of hospitalizations, many dozens of deaths. Every age, every demographic impacted.
There is so much we don't know about exposure to infection dynamics, about symptomatic vs asymptomatic progression, about medium and long term impacts.
Yes, life presents all kinds of dangers, people have to work, all sorts of essential jobs have to be staffed, the absolute failure of the Federal government "leadership" to do even the minimum from a financial, logistic, or medical perspective is unforgivably, sociopathically criminal and reduces the practical options on the table-
ALL that aside this virus is no effing joke.
The only reason body counts US-wide are not in the millions is because of shutdowns and various bits of behavioral and epidemiological good fortune the details of which we will only figure out later.
It is almost certainly the case that 90% or more of the US population remain vulnerable, and if people become careless, deaths will rise again.
One more point- I have been in many internet arguments about the various statistical/aggregate measures, eg suggestions that only 30% antibody prevalence may be enough for herd immunity, studies of superspreaders, etc-
Aggregate statistics are BS.
They tell you nothing about you or your family's individual risk in any specific situation. The number of people "doing everything right" yet winding up in the hospital is countless (as are the people doing everything wrong and remaining well). We know a lot yet are still just looking for the keys under the streetlamp.
We are not done with this. This may only be the end of the beginning.
Stay safe. Cheers.
Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#49May never operate strictly in person again, was the original title. I guess I'll give the benefit of the doubt that it was an honest mistake, but it's a mistake that vastly changes the meaning of the headline.
Re: In-person services may never operate strictly in-person again
#50This is very strange to read from here in New Zealand, where life is fairly close to getting back to normal. I don't see any reason why our basic lifestyles should be permanently changed by this virus. As bad as things feel now, we will eventually get on top of the epidemic and in a few short years this period will be a distant memory. I'm not saying there won't be permanent changes - I believe this is a catalyst tha…