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Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

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Re: Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

#41
Amazing. 11 USD for a döner!

A döner is between 2.5 and 5.0 EUR in Berlin (roughly 2.75 to 5.5 USD).

That's takeaway or eat in at a place with a few tables but w/o table service.

Meraba, which uses high quality organic meat from the region, comparable to the quality of the protein stated in the article, asks 4.5 EUR. A whole plate is 10 EUR.[1]

If order to your doorstep it's 6.5 EUR.[2]

[1] https://www.top10berlin.de/en/cat/eating-257/kebab-shops-230...

[2] https://www.lieferando.de/en/meraba

Re: Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

#42

Amazing. 11 USD for a döner! A döner is between 2.5 and 5.0 EUR in Berlin (roughly 2.75 to 5.5 USD). That's takeaway or eat in at a place with a few tables but w/o table service. Meraba, which uses high quality organic meat from the region, comparable to the quality of the protein stated in the article, asks 4.5 EUR. A whole plate is 10 EUR.[1] If order to your doorstep it's 6.5 EUR.[2] [1] https://www.top10berlin.de…

Not a huge difference, but it's actually 11 CAD, so closer to 7 EUR.

Re: Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

#44
post #21
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bizarre thing is that even before the pandemic I've seen popular Bay Area restaurants close down due to huge rent increases and then the spaces are still vacant years later. I don't understand what commercial landlords are thinking?

> I don't understand what commercial landlords are thinking? Financial engineering/optimization. I'm not well versed in it myself, but from my understanding: Commercial landlords can harvest a paper loss from a vacant unit. If you were renting a unit out at $100 per square foot per month, being able to take a $100 sq/ft/month write off from a vacancy may be more advantageous than dropping your rate to $50 sq/ft/month…

Everybody keeps repeating that landlords can write off rent not received as a tax deduction. You can’t, and if you think about it for a minute, you’ll see it doesn’t make any sense.

Imagine a landlord with 10 properties that rent for $100 per month. That’s $1,000 per month rental income, or $12,000 per year. Assume 10% tax rate, the landlord clears $11,000 after tax.

Imagine now that half of them are vacant. The landlord is now bringing in $500 per month, or $6000 per year. Is it your expectation that the landlord can somehow deduct the other $6k in rent not paid and pay $0 per year in taxes??? No, the landlord would now pay $600 a year in taxes on that $6k in rental income. Naturally the landlord doesn’t pay taxes on money they didn’t receive, but it’s always better to have 90% of the rent after tax, than 0% of it. It is always always more profitable to receive rent than not.

Now, as others have mentioned, it may be worthwhile to lose a few months of rent in return for signing a higher-dollar lease over a 10 year term.

Re: Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

#45

Amazing. 11 USD for a döner! A döner is between 2.5 and 5.0 EUR in Berlin (roughly 2.75 to 5.5 USD). That's takeaway or eat in at a place with a few tables but w/o table service. Meraba, which uses high quality organic meat from the region, comparable to the quality of the protein stated in the article, asks 4.5 EUR. A whole plate is 10 EUR.[1] If order to your doorstep it's 6.5 EUR.[2] [1] https://www.top10berlin.de…

11 dollars is probably in SF or NYC where average pay is 2 to 3x the one in Berlin.

Re: Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

#46
post #4

Restaurants are fucked but the underlying costs associated with real estate are insane. Where I live, treasured restaurants close at a regular cadence due to rent hikes. Nobody can afford to run a restaurant at the prices being charged here. The end result is a cocktail that is $25 or a pint thats $10. High real estate prices are essentially forcing every commercial space to become a chain restaurant unless they can…

The bizarre thing is that even before the pandemic I've seen popular Bay Area restaurants close down due to huge rent increases and then the spaces are still vacant years later. I don't understand what commercial landlords are thinking?

> The bizarre thing is that even before the pandemic I've seen popular Bay Area restaurants close down due to huge rent increases and then the spaces are still vacant years later. I don't understand what commercial landlords are thinking?

If its anything like what I saw in Boulder, most are held by large companies (TEBO) who can write off the losses come tax year because they have other more profitable locations/sites.

The restaurant I came out of retirement on in 2018 has been vacant since Summer of 2018, just to give context that building was $13k/month before operational costs, which were immense due to it be an incredibly old building. I personally had to patch up the pipesdue to massive leaks as our dishwasher wasn't getting enough pressure and my station was getting all the run off I had run to FOH get some wine cork to plug the holes and used a bunch of duct tape until the plumber could get there for the next week of service.

I think I overheard the Sous and Execs saying where I last worked that rent was 20k/month for the flagship, which on a busy night we could clear in a single days (day/night) service.

The further this has gone on, Colorado only just lifted its stay at home order today, the more I think I've hung up my whites and knives professionally for good this time.

By contrast, this is what is happening in Hong Kong, as they have captured the loyalty of their patrons and are months ahead of most country in terms of Covid19 recovery [1]:

1: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-mayday/...

Re: Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

#48
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is not 'why they have thin margins' - the issue is their inflexible operating ability mostly due to fixed costs, specifically rent. If restaurants had 20% margins they would still be facing collapse. Rent is a huge portion of costs vis-a-vis most other businesses that can be run 'anywhere' whereas restaurants need prime locations.

I have no idea where the restaurants I order from are.

That's one way to look at it. I, on the other hand, right now order only from the restaurants that are close to home, and I know exactly where they are. In the hopes that at least some of my favourites survive.

Re: Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

#49
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bizarre thing is that even before the pandemic I've seen popular Bay Area restaurants close down due to huge rent increases and then the spaces are still vacant years later. I don't understand what commercial landlords are thinking?

> The bizarre thing is that even before the pandemic I've seen popular Bay Area restaurants close down due to huge rent increases and then the spaces are still vacant years later. I don't understand what commercial landlords are thinking? If its anything like what I saw in Boulder, most are held by large companies (TEBO) who can write off the losses come tax year because they have other more profitable locations/site…

I think your comment can be summed up in: they [read: large holding companies] just don't care because it doesn't affect them.

It's pretty much the exact same situation in Toronto.

Trying $40k/mo in Midtown in rent alone. It's stupid.

Re: Why Restaurants Are So Fucked

#50
> Drinks for instance cost us more than at the grocery store — but we can’t exactly go get 20 cases of pop per day, so we don’t have much choice.

I didn't understand this. It may not be feasible to buy 100 cases of pop at a regular grocery store, but isn't Costco/Sam's Club set up for that?

I do think it comes down ultimately to real estate prices. Major metros in North America have gradually become unaffordable for the middle-class over the past 20 years. It's not surprising that it's the same story for small businesses such as restaurants. Businesses have to pay workers more (because housing is expensive) and they have to pay their landlord more (because commercial rents are high). All that profit margin is ending up in landlords' pockets.

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