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U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

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41–50 of 85 posts

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#41
post #23

More stories about how covid19 is really screwing up other parts of the supply chain Farmers being forced to pour milk down the drain: https://twitter.com/freshairfarmer/status/124787620556452659... Retail toilet paper manufacturers not setup to handle load from people pooping at home instead of work (and corporate TP factories don't know how to sell to grocery stores): https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-gettin…

Maximally efficient is minimally robust.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#44

It's not commonly known but Vegetables, Grains and Beans are extremely excellent sources of protein. Most of them have between 10-20% or more of their calories from protein. if you want exact numbers, check out this: https://kale.world/c And, if people reduce their meat consumption form these shortages, it could have excellent results on people's health. The last time a country went completely without meat or dairy w…

Protein from those sources are not as bioavailable, and are therefore not “extremely excellent sources of protein”. Also, forks over knives has been disproven a hundred times over. Not saying everything in that doc is wrong, but it has enough wrong that it is not a credible source of information.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#45
post #13

I wonder if a meat shortage that causes people who previously hadn't eaten plant substitutes, will be enough to let plant substitute companies take a bigger chunk of the meat market for good.

The products you're referring to started out more expensive; why do you think they will become relatively cheaper? And why would people who prefer meat not just eat smaller quantities? If butter becomes more expensive, I'm not going to substitute margarine.

What I meant by "people who previously hadn't eaten plant substitutes" was people who just haven't decided to try it because they just preferred to stick to meat, I should have phrased that better.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#46
post #4
post #2

This is what concerns as many people have acted like the economy only effects rich people, or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently immoral. Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. The economy is the vast network stretching across the globe that works to supply goods and services in the places they are needed, when the ec…

I agree totally, but I don't think that provides guidance here. The meat plants have largely stayed open as essential businesses, only closing or even putting in controls when there's a number of employee cases that can no longer be ignored. So in this case, we're not looking at the trade-off between closing companies preemptively to save lives and economic output, but instead the trade-off between closing companies…

> Instead we won't even talk about it until May 4th, and I worry we'll either take too much of a step at once or make a tiny movement much later than we should have tried it.

The problem is we STILL don't have enough equipment for healthcare workers if that ICU starts filling up.

Part of the reason for the lockdown was to give time for all the equipment industries to spin up. Unfortunately, the US federal government squandered that.

Until the hospitals can deal with a New York scenario and not have the healthcare workers contracting it due to lack of equipment, we shouldn't relax.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#47
post #23

More stories about how covid19 is really screwing up other parts of the supply chain Farmers being forced to pour milk down the drain: https://twitter.com/freshairfarmer/status/124787620556452659... Retail toilet paper manufacturers not setup to handle load from people pooping at home instead of work (and corporate TP factories don't know how to sell to grocery stores): https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-gettin…

The Twitter thread you linked was specifically about Canadian milk. Canada is well known for mandating a specific price for their milk.

In the US, we have a free market that has resulted in the cost of milk production falling below the break even price for a lot of small dairy farms: https://www.jsonline.com/in-depth/news/special-reports/dairy...

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#48
post #46
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree totally, but I don't think that provides guidance here. The meat plants have largely stayed open as essential businesses, only closing or even putting in controls when there's a number of employee cases that can no longer be ignored. So in this case, we're not looking at the trade-off between closing companies preemptively to save lives and economic output, but instead the trade-off between closing companies…

> Instead we won't even talk about it until May 4th, and I worry we'll either take too much of a step at once or make a tiny movement much later than we should have tried it. The problem is we STILL don't have enough equipment for healthcare workers if that ICU starts filling up. Part of the reason for the lockdown was to give time for all the equipment industries to spin up. Unfortunately, the US federal government…

Right now in the SF Bay Area, ICUs are below typical seasonal usage and the usage has been declining slowly for 3 weeks. I'm not saying we should "relax", but I think we have evidence that the slightly looser controls employed from mid-March to early April were effective-- that would be a good first step to go to now. Odds are that results in continued reduction, but if it results in slow growth instead we'd be OK in the time it takes to notice, react, and have the effect of our reaction seen.

Frequent, small changes are good. Not big steps and milestones.

Population behavior has further changed in beneficial ways, too-- e.g. mask wearing. Step back to the initial health order -now-. In a couple weeks, consider opening a slightly larger chunk of retail. After each step, watch what happens.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#49
post #40
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a good chunk of the way to herd immunity Herd immunity isn't a solution if your immunity only lasts 6 months. This is NOT a flu virus--this is a Coronavirus--immunity is generally limited for Coronaviruses(virii?). If it's under 12 months, every flu season will likely also be Covid-19 season. Cornavirus immunity seems to top out at about 24-36 months--if you're lucky. SARS seems to be 24, IIRC.

I think a reasonable somewhat pessimistic (but not worst-case) assumption is that immunity is similar to common-cold coronaviruses; lifelong partial protection, total protection for 24-36 months, some degree of cross-strain reactivity. Kissler et al published a really good analysis of kinematics and transmission dynamics in Science based on what we know about human coronaviruses, cross-immunity, etc. (Now that we are…

> I believe that if you took one of the existing common cold coronaviruses, and introduced it to an immunologically naive population, you'd get a huge incident wave and a whole lot of excess death.

Doubtful or you'd see waves of death in children from cold viruses. Common cold viruses have had lots of time to evolve so that they transmit well but don't kill very much.

Presumably it's also why our immune systems don't waste time building up permanent immunity against them. There's much more of an evolutionary pressure to be permanently immune to something that can kill or maim you, if you survive.

Re: U.S. Reels to a Meat Shortage and Prices Are Getting Weird

#50
post #2

This is what concerns as many people have acted like the economy only effects rich people, or any move that trades the economy for lives is inherently immoral. Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. The economy is the vast network stretching across the globe that works to supply goods and services in the places they are needed, when the ec…

>Food falls under the economy, the economy isn't just the stock market or things rich people do rich people things in. i'm not a vegetarian but if the choice is between people living and me having access to pork i choose the former.

Luckily, this kind of supply shock isn't possible with produce.

This isn't a problem specific to meat at all; the same kind of interruption to supply chains can occur anywhere through the economy. So you don't necessarily have the option of falling back on veggies.

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