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Sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak

scientificamerican.com

41–50 of 62 posts

Re: Sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak

#42
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, equally we have every idiot going to the useless John Hopkins site because it looks pretty. I guess it's an arms game in part.

Thank you! At least someone understand my frustration. When I try to compare countries, it somehow manages to insert New York along with a few other US states as countries. He/She/They might be a good React/GraphQL ninja(s), but definitely skipped out on the ETL course.

Is this any more useful as a comparison? http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

Re: Sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak

#45
post #39
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This report is focused on illicit stimulants. No results for cannabis are reported because cannabis use is estimated by measuring its main metabolite (THC-COOH), which is the only suitable biomarker found so far, but is excreted in a low percentage. More research is needed to understand the excretion percentage of THC-COOH or find alternative biomarkers (Causanilles et al., 2017a). this is the second sewage testing…

It's a kind of hack on modern sanitation systems. It makes you realize that everyone is (literally!) leaking all sorts of information about what's in their bodies. You just need to know where to pick up that treasure trove of information. It tickles the hacker fantasies!

Here's a horrifying thought:

"Smart" toilet/sink/pipe + sewage testing = data

Re: Sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak

#47
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the implication here? Is it that the number of pneumonia deaths is the real indication of covids prevalance?

We don't know yet. These numbers are still preliminary, but it helps us to understand better the impact of the workarounds that doctors have needed to use, to tell the CDC it's COVID, when the software does not yet have a button for COVID. The good news from the recent report ( https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-Death-Counts-for-Coron... ) is that overall mortality in America these past few months, has actually be…

I expect 400k COVID-19 deaths in the US. Anything less than that is a major win. Anything less than the 2.2M is progress.

Re: Sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak

#48
post #44

Serious question: are there 'pandemics' we don't hear about because the virus doesn't hurt us? Are those outbreaks also studied?

If you mean animal flus that didn’t cross over to humans then certainly. Some of them are in wild animals where we might not casually notice a drop unrelated to our activity, or in farm animals where the heavy use of antibiotics reduces the spread within some farms.

Re: Sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak

#49
post #32

Before anyone goes collecting sewage samples, consider deriving your scaling factors from discrepencies in ICD-10 diagnostic encoding practices. - Stacked bar chart: https://twitter.com/OccupyWallSt/status/1246478379064295425/... - Govt data: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-Death-Counts-for-Coron... ICD-10 is really the heart of the matter. Earlier recommendations have asked doctors to encode corona death infor…

> Before anyone goes collecting sewage samples, consider deriving your scaling factors from discrepencies in ICD-10 diagnostic encoding practices.

Did I understand correctly that there was two diagnostic codes for cause of death related to the coronavirus? One for "potentially related" to COVID-19, and one for "definitively caused by" COVID-19?

If so, how would this skew actual numbers reported by the WHO or CDC for cause of death?

Re: Sewage could reveal true scale of coronavirus outbreak

#50
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh. I see that some artificial vanillin is made from lignin, but I don't know whether natural wood decomposition creates vanillin. Do you have a reference for that?

lignin is wood (or rather it's a polymer in the cell walls of wood/plants)

For sure. But the question is whether vanillin is produced during wood decay.
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