“ Hong Kong and Singapore were early examples of places that were able to contain the spread of the virus” cough TAIWAN cough Again for the people in the back: T•A•I•W•A•N
Being an island nation is definitely an advantage in this regard.
New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
41–50 of 107 posts
Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#42Fuck China.
If Iran had intentionally spread this virus the way CCP has done, there would already be war but because it came from China, here we are worried about being called racist.
It's quite jarring when you compare this to how the world reacted after 9/11.
When I hear people say things like "China bought the world time" it's infuriating. The CCP needs to pay.
Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
/r/Wallstreetbets just had someone put $775k, the person’s entire net worth, into options on the idea that the market will crash by 6/19. I am sure comments like yours give them hope that they are right. Personally, I think that the economy will change significantly, but crash vs recover for markets is different. If suddenly workers got a fair wage and everyone got universal healthcare we could easily see the country…
From a first principal perspective there is no reason why anyone should think that it is impossible for China or another country to create 2 billion vaccine doses in the next 6 months. There are plenty of reasons to say this will not happen but it isn't impossible. If it does happen everything flips very quickly.
Huh?
From first principles there is no reason why anyone should think that their won't be 2 billion vaccines tomorrow (perhaps via divine intervention). Heck, from first principles I'm not even sure Australia exists (Maybe Australia is a giant hoax. After all, i have never been there.)
Proving things from first principles is really hard. The fact you weren't able to disprove a statement from first principles is not strong evidence the statement is actually true.
Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#44But of course. If you intentionally prevent ppl from being infected then they remain susceptible. Short of a vaccine, you can't put it off forever. Those ppl can't hide forever. This is an expected - or should be - result of "flatten the curve." FTC is not about the virus per se, it's about the healthcare system. That is, to not exceed the volume the healthcare system can handle. Put another way, an increase in the n…
It's amazing how many people copy-paste knowledge without doing the most basic logical checks on it.
For example, nobody yet explained to me how flattening the curve is gonna make much difference when say NYC has 3,000 ventilators, and the average time on a ventilator is 20 days. If 1/100 of NYC's 8 million population need a ventilator that'd still be 80,000 ventilators needed.
So flattening would reduce the deaths to 74,000 instead of 77,000?
[To be clear I'm not saying this math is exact. But I am saying I am owed the actual math by people who want me to change my life over it]
Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are significant second order effects (and 3rd, 4th degree effects and so on) that are difficult to foresee and accurately simulate. For example, just to continue on your train of thoughts, the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up, which is going to increase food consumption and, potentially decades later, construction activities in real estate.
Why would young families suddenly have more children?
Something I saw on Twitter the other day:
"in 9 months there will be a baby boom, entirely consisting of firstborn children"
Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease. I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go on.
The cure would likely be worse than the disease for you . Are millions of people dying an acceptable trade-off for us to be able to date?
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Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#47Technically this is clickbait - the title's implication is that we'll have more lockdowns in the future, while the article only talks about how the current lockdown will ebb and flow. If something is lifted and reinstated its really the same lockdown, not a new one.
I was hoping to read an article about the potential of other coronaviruses or threats that may cause global lockdowns in the future.
Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#48The political acceptability of releasing then locking down again is likely to be very low in my view. Friends and colleagues I speak to who haven’t followed the modelling papers etc think the point of a lockdown is to eliminate the virus entirely - not contain, not delay but eliminate entirely. There is also a very strong fear of getting the virus (many of the same people are convinced that it’s a death sentence almo…
Exactly what I’m seeing. There is a perception that this is going to stop it entirely and that if we only went full national lockdown for 2 weeks, this would all be over.
Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#49This is terrible thinking: South Korea and other places have not locked down and they have effectively contained the virus. We are doing Trillions of damage they are avoiding. Given the costs we should be spending billions studying what they are doing. We need to understand more effectively how the virus is spreading and focus on those spots, not this lockdown stuff which is too costly. Some basic policies like mask-…
I'm hoping ubiquitous mask usage + testing + efficient contact tracing would be a formula to spread the curve and keep 80% of the economy open. I think large gatherings are out until herd immunity or vaccine.
That said, I'm monitoring countries with high mask usage and it seems like people are getting complacent with social distancing and other active measures, lack of vigilance and adherence is going to become an issue, especially once nice weather rolls around. And I'm not entire convinced mask-usage is effective at high levels of community spread, it might only have disproportionately utility at the head of the outbreak.
Still out of all large scale, realistic intervention, some sort of mask usage using mass or crowd sourced production outside of medical supply chain might be worth trying. I think it be relatively easy to distribute DIY masks to everyone with insert pocket - apparently 2 pieces of paper towels has 80% filtration value.
There's also a lot natural experiments happening in cities, at least according to anecdotes and personal experience, most of the China/Korea towns are taking it very seriously. Where I live, there was like 80% mask usage. It be interesting to compare infection rates between a big Chinese grocery store with a Western one in a few weeks.
Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough
#50The political acceptability of releasing then locking down again is likely to be very low in my view. Friends and colleagues I speak to who haven’t followed the modelling papers etc think the point of a lockdown is to eliminate the virus entirely - not contain, not delay but eliminate entirely. There is also a very strong fear of getting the virus (many of the same people are convinced that it’s a death sentence almo…
Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease. I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go on.
And this is why we need police or national guard to enforce lockdowns. And to charge people spreading the virus with felony murder and manslaughter charges, like they seem to be doing in extreme cases in Italy.
I’ve seen some toxic comments on this site before, but nothing like someone blatantly saying “I’ll happy kill those around me to avoid any inconvenience to my daily routine”.