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Beer distribution game

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Re: Beer distribution game

#41

Post by mindcrime »

jacques_chester wrote: post #37
mindcrime wrote: post #21

I first learned about this from reading Peter Senge's The Fifth Discipline . If you're interested in this sort of thing, TFD is a worthy read. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fifth_Discipline https://www.amazon.com/Fifth-Discipline-Practice-Learning-Or...

I strongly disagree. Senge's book is hand-wavy, includes acres of unactionable fluff and -- this irks me the most -- introduces causal loop diagrams but fails to introduce stock-and-flow diagrams. Causal loop diagrams are basically toys, useful only during initial hypothesis formation. You need a stock-and-flow model to actually test and elaborate your hypothesis. The best all-round introductory book I have read in t…

Your response reads as though you're disagree with an assertion I didn't make. I almost feel like you read my post as saying that The Fifth Discipline is the -best- book on the topic. That I'm not saying, if for no other reason than because I haven't read every book on the topic.

However, I stand by the assertion that it is a worthy read. I gained a lot from reading it, and if it falls short of being totally comprehensive and standing entirely on its own... well, that's a criticism that would apply to many books.

All of that said, thanks for mentioning the Sterman book. I wasn't familiar with it, and I'm about to order a copy.

Re: Beer distribution game

#42

Post by wyattpeak »

My most interesting takeaway, from the causes of the bullwhip effect:

> Free return policies: Customers may overstate demands due to shortages, if customers cannot returns items, retailers will continue to exaggerate their needs, cancelling orders and causing in excess product or materials.

I was annoyed when I saw that stores were refusing to accept returns, thinking that they didn't want to suffer the cost of regretful hoarders trying to make right. Most people I talked to were pleased that hoarders were getting their comeuppance. But its effect on supply went completely over my head, and while I don't know if anyone else was aware, certainly nobody mentioned it.

Re: Beer distribution game

#43

Post by speleding »

CoffeeDregs wrote: post #39
speleding wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, I didn't realise there are so many Sloanies here. I attended a class where Jay Forrester himself came in to teach for a day (in 1998), in his eighties. Impressive man, yet so humble.

Forrester came in to teach SysDyn (2004) and went over the wheel-of-real-estate. Eye-opening. Definitely a humble, nice guy. Contract info is in my profile. Drop a line and we can grab 6-foot-distance coffee!

Wow, he must have been 85 by then. (Your contact info is a blank page for me?)

Re: Beer distribution game

#46

Post by rrrrrrrrrrrryan »

wyattpeak wrote: post #42

My most interesting takeaway, from the causes of the bullwhip effect: > Free return policies: Customers may overstate demands due to shortages, if customers cannot returns items, retailers will continue to exaggerate their needs, cancelling orders and causing in excess product or materials. I was annoyed when I saw that stores were refusing to accept returns, thinking that they didn't want to suffer the cost of regre…

I don't know if the policy was about "hoarders getting their comeuppance" so much as disincentivizing hoarding in the first place.

Re: Beer distribution game

#47

Post by pinky1417 »

CoffeeDregs wrote: post #39
speleding wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, I didn't realise there are so many Sloanies here. I attended a class where Jay Forrester himself came in to teach for a day (in 1998), in his eighties. Impressive man, yet so humble.

Forrester came in to teach SysDyn (2004) and went over the wheel-of-real-estate. Eye-opening. Definitely a humble, nice guy. Contract info is in my profile. Drop a line and we can grab 6-foot-distance coffee!

Same here. If any of y'all want to shoot the shit about Sloan, feel free to send me an email. I'm cooped up at home in South Florida and desperate for social interaction!

Re: Beer distribution game

#48

Post by timka »

"Due to lack of information, suppliers, manufacturers, sales people and customers often have an incomplete understanding of what the real demand of an order is"

Of course this makes the game interesting and also explains why in real life the only sustainable model for economy is planning. The planning starts from actually measuring/calculating the real demand. Then you model your whole supply chain. Of course this means the state has to have control over and complete understanding. This is hard science http://www.strategplan.com/en/

Also, this allows planning measures for emergency cases like epidemics, war and other disasters.

It's impossible to achieve that with monetary approach.

Re: Beer distribution game

#49

Post by alasdair_ »

timka wrote: post #48

"Due to lack of information, suppliers, manufacturers, sales people and customers often have an incomplete understanding of what the real demand of an order is" Of course this makes the game interesting and also explains why in real life the only sustainable model for economy is planning. The planning starts from actually measuring/calculating the real demand. Then you model your whole supply chain. Of course this me…

>Of course this makes the game interesting and also explains why in real life the only sustainable model for economy is planning.

"real life" planned economies have done terribly so far, while price-based capitalist economies seem to have done a lot better.

>The planning starts from actually measuring/calculating the real demand.

Herein lies the problem. How do you measure "real demand" for an entire economy, without prices? Prices convey information about what is really in demand at a given time and without them it's remarkably difficult to get answers that don't involve guesswork or individuals demanding more than they really need.

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