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New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

directorsblog.nih.gov

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Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#41

Post by hinkley »

sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

It doesn’t get called out, but when I read about the Spanish Flu I can’t help but feel that certain genotypes got very strong selective pressure.

Conversely, there are probably genotypes running around today that are completely asymptomatic to Covid. You could have whole families shedding virus wherever they go and never even know what they’ve done.

And one of the ways we learn about immunology is to study people who are immune or asymptomatic, so it’s not just about quarantining people that we need to identify infected individuals.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#42

Post by jamesrcole »

dorfsmay wrote: post #21
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

Is there a test, or, what are the chances that there will be a test, to check if somebody already had covid19?

I had been wondering this too

I know of one that’s in the works https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/singapore-claims-fir...

I have seen other talk about such tests on Twitter but it’s too difficult to find it now.

Such tests seem to be called antibody tests or serological tests/assays.

EDIT: this twitter thread discusses such tests https://twitter.com/nachristakis/status/1240689935557865472?...

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#43

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

gpanders wrote: post #33
anon102010 wrote: post #8

Fascinating that they recommend you take OFF masks while on things like crowded BART trains and airports (I had lots leftover from forest fires) if you are "healthy", even though that might mean you are asymptomatic, or not yet diagnosed etc. Despite claims masks (with good adherence to wearing) are highly effective - primarily by reducing hand to mouth/nose contact, secondarily as a direct barrier. And surgical mask…

My understanding is that the urging to not wear masks when healthy is solely due to preserving masks for people who actually need them (sick people and doctors) given a limited supply, not because they're ineffective when healthy. It's just a form of triage.

And asking you to save them is very much different than asking you to deliberately take them off while on a crowded subway car.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#44

Post by cvlasdkv »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #36
psychlops wrote: post #25

Given the ongoing statistics coming out of South Korea (which I'd suggest are the most accurate) where only one person under 50 has died. It seems that these safeguards would be best spent around those aged 60+ and perhaps those 50+ with other health issues. Those who are younger seem to be mildly affected for the most part and could go on with their lives as long as they didn't interact with the older population.

Deaths are all fine and good, but do you know statistics on hospitalizations for the under 50 crowd? Those are the resources that are important - even if the under 50 doesn't die from it but requires hospitalization that's both a resource that can't be used by the above 50's, as well as a possible death if there isn't a bed for them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-...

A significant number in my opinion. "Young" people are acting not only selfishly, but stupidly.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#45

Post by krzat »

gpanders wrote: post #33
anon102010 wrote: post #8

Fascinating that they recommend you take OFF masks while on things like crowded BART trains and airports (I had lots leftover from forest fires) if you are "healthy", even though that might mean you are asymptomatic, or not yet diagnosed etc. Despite claims masks (with good adherence to wearing) are highly effective - primarily by reducing hand to mouth/nose contact, secondarily as a direct barrier. And surgical mask…

My understanding is that the urging to not wear masks when healthy is solely due to preserving masks for people who actually need them (sick people and doctors) given a limited supply, not because they're ineffective when healthy. It's just a form of triage.

I would like to wear homemade mask from this site https://diymask.site/ but that stupid recommendation will make me look like a sick person.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#46

Post by scott_s »

thu2111 wrote: post #30
scott_s wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A comment by Bradley Kuszmaul on that blog post gives a good reason why the scenario presented is not likely: > Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about. And if there were a lot more people recovered than we know about, we would have seen deaths earlier in South Korea, since South Korea started their testing earlier.…

Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about That's a very strong claim. SK has done a lot of testing relative to most places but it's still: a) A tiny amount relative to the population b) Not a random sample of the population Their tests were done at testing clinics that people had to take themselves to, which in many ca…

China tested hundreds of thousands of people in provinces with known cases, and found very little evidence of asymptomatic circulation. See my comment from a week ago, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22475853, which quotes Bruce Aylward, an assistance director general and epidemiologist for the WHO.

Our current evidence points to there not being millions of asymptomatic people.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#47

Post by josephorjoe »

vsareto wrote: post #9

They really are changing the language for this event. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/new-york-gov-cuomo-orders-75... This is pretty damn close to quarantine, without actually saying quarantine in the headlines.

I think the motivation for this change is to prevent employers from trying to maintain "business as usual" operating conditions.

Anecdotally I've heard of places where the company has made no policy changes about sick leave or what employees who are feeling ill should do and, therefore, hourly workers keep coming in to work with "flu-like symptoms" or days after having had symtpoms because otherwise they don't get paid and could get fired.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#48

Post by bgentry »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #36
psychlops wrote: post #25

Given the ongoing statistics coming out of South Korea (which I'd suggest are the most accurate) where only one person under 50 has died. It seems that these safeguards would be best spent around those aged 60+ and perhaps those 50+ with other health issues. Those who are younger seem to be mildly affected for the most part and could go on with their lives as long as they didn't interact with the older population.

Deaths are all fine and good, but do you know statistics on hospitalizations for the under 50 crowd? Those are the resources that are important - even if the under 50 doesn't die from it but requires hospitalization that's both a resource that can't be used by the above 50's, as well as a possible death if there isn't a bed for them.

Per the CDC, 20% of hospitalizations are from people aged 20-44. Another 20% are 45-54: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-...

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#49

Post by [deleted] »

thu2111 wrote: post #30
scott_s wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A comment by Bradley Kuszmaul on that blog post gives a good reason why the scenario presented is not likely: > Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about. And if there were a lot more people recovered than we know about, we would have seen deaths earlier in South Korea, since South Korea started their testing earlier.…

Given the amount of testing being done in South Korea, we can rule out that there are a lot more people currently infected than we know about That's a very strong claim. SK has done a lot of testing relative to most places but it's still: a) A tiny amount relative to the population b) Not a random sample of the population Their tests were done at testing clinics that people had to take themselves to, which in many ca…

[deleted]

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#50

Post by josephorjoe »

microdrum wrote: post #38
SubiculumCode wrote: post #20

I really wish we had widespread testing, or even a test to see if you had COVID-19 in the past. Before we had all been so focused on this thing, my child's friend came back from China in December, and she had a upper respiratory illness with a fever. Then my whole family and I suffered under a low-grade fever and upper respiratory illness for a week or so in early January. I have no idea if it was COVID-19, but it is…

That's fear talking. Why would you want to be tested? What would you do differently? You had a virus, now you aren't sick any longer. You aren't making other people sick, either.

Well, for one thing, if people can be tested to confirm they had and recovered from the virus and therefore have some immunity to it, those people can more safely assist people who are currently ill and move about more freely in society (unless they are still at risk to transmit the virus to others, of course).
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