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The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

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41–50 of 62 posts

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#41

Driving everyone else bankrupt failed with fracking. Why would it work with Russia?

Nothing needs to work with Russia, it is an excuse. Russia's oil output as % of global production hasn't really changed for decades. It's is all about US frackers, peak oil demand, and a prince's concern about his personal future.

Even then, it failed before because fracking companies could shut down and start back up without too much loss of capital. To me this reeks od trying the same thing again and expecting a different result.

MBS seems to behave quite randomly. Maybe that's logical: being predictable is dangerous. But that's the only explanation that fits here I think: he'll burn 1tn usd because no one would expect that!

Has anyone got a better logic to explain this? Does it suit Saudi to weaken other OPEC members?

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#42
post #8

I don't get it. It is estimated that below 50$/barrel Saudi Arabia is basically pushing wealth out of their country. (Balance of payment in negative, it is right?.) And below 80$/barrel they are running the country at a deficit. They are now selling to 30$/barrel. What is the strategy here? Push all "high-tech" producers out of the market and shut up the price again? How long can they last? And how much it will cost?

Actually right now it's around $22. Which is uncomfortably close to the break even for most major Canadian oil extraction. It may even be below cost for some of them since the exact numbers are considered competitive secrets. Alberta's economy is built on the oil sands.

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the answer. They think they can send US shale into bankruptcy before they go bankrupt themselves.

But when the cost recovers we'll be back at it again. US shale has seen booms and busts for a hundred years.

Whipsaw mkts will eventually make it impossible for credit to be extended to allow these low ROIs to operate.

Welcome to post-peak oil pricing dynamics.

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#44
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Still, it's hard to know how good it will be without knowing more details. Yeah, for all we know they could have loaded up on CDS on O&G plays and stand to offset any losses just by triggering default clauses on the frackers.

Is the CDS market big enough to do that? It's big, but the oil market is massive.

Hard for me to say, a lot stuff is traded over the counter, and one can get short exposure alot of different ways. Blackrock[0] has about $10 trillion notional for the single name cds market in 2016, estimated in 2017 that there was about ~$15,000 million avg daily volume in HY, and ~$26,000 million in IG (cash traded bonds, etfs, and cdx) and that's not considering the notional on the derivatives (swaps/options) on those.

[0] https://www.sec.gov/spotlight/fixed-income-advisory-committe...

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the answer. They think they can send US shale into bankruptcy before they go bankrupt themselves.

But when the cost recovers we'll be back at it again. US shale has seen booms and busts for a hundred years.

Saudi Arabia oil is the cheapest in the world. They have massive oil fields. So in principle they can bankrupt anybody unless somebody can come up with a cheaper way to get oil.

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#46
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bankrupt the fracking companies in America So are they fighting a war with North Dakota? Overall this is good for the US and the frackers equipment is still there, if price goes up they will come back, as they have done before. > Russia of money so they can’t effectuate greater sphere of influence in the Middle East through Syria/Iran Why are you referencing Iran? Iran and Russia while not enemies are hardly friend…

More Texas/New Mexico than North Dakota. And the US doesn't have to stand idly by while their frackers die on the vine.

Yup. Time for tariffs.

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#47
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't make sense. They could just buy US shale. I think the answer is Saudis are brainless. There is enough evidence.

I don't think that's really a useful comment, no doubt just like every country there are brainless people and smart people. For example, the ruling family has been very good at staying in power for years and years, MBS basically managed to trick the western media into thinking he was a progressive, and they've been able to be one of America's strongest allies despite funding extremist schools around the world, not th…

What do you mean trick the western media? As if "tricking" the western media is such a complicated thing.

Have you heard of WMDs, the subprime meltdown, election of Obama/Trump, Brexit? The Western media is a unrepairable fucked up system not worth bringing into focus here.

Trump is on record saying the Saudi defense budget is whats keeping the US-Saudi relationship cozy. Its not complicated.

But beyond that Saudi leadership is brain dead (from having no internal debate/competition/ allowing the propping up of MBS) and thats a most valid explanation for what will follow.

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#48
post #8

I don't get it. It is estimated that below 50$/barrel Saudi Arabia is basically pushing wealth out of their country. (Balance of payment in negative, it is right?.) And below 80$/barrel they are running the country at a deficit. They are now selling to 30$/barrel. What is the strategy here? Push all "high-tech" producers out of the market and shut up the price again? How long can they last? And how much it will cost?

> It is estimated that below 50$/barrel Saudi Arabia is basically pushing wealth out of their country. (Balance of payment in negative, it is right?.) You are assuming that the saudis didn't hedge. Being the "first mover" in this case, they would have had ample time to hedge against any drop in oil prices. Of course when they decide to cut supply and increase oil prices, they could bet on oil futures and make a lot o…

You're the only person who brought the correct reason for the situation, Saudis are cow milk for Trump and the absolute silence of Trump is clear answer of his satisfaction on the situation.

Killing fracking industry is really stupid to even think of.

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#49
post #38
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No... the Saudi oil production costs are circa US$10/bbl, and their marginal production costs (ie costs to produce one more barrel) are circa US$3.00. They are not selling at a loss, but they are not making enough to run their country (that would take prices of ca US$80/bbl at the current rate).

>> They are not selling at a loss, but they are not making enough to run their country So without further measures to run the country differently, that effectively means they are losing money and not 'building wealth', right?

Presumably part or running their country is investing into some projects expected to generate returns in the long run, i.e. building wealth.

Re: The Saudis Have a High-Stakes Plan to Win the Global Oil War

#50
post #38
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No... the Saudi oil production costs are circa US$10/bbl, and their marginal production costs (ie costs to produce one more barrel) are circa US$3.00. They are not selling at a loss, but they are not making enough to run their country (that would take prices of ca US$80/bbl at the current rate).

>> They are not selling at a loss, but they are not making enough to run their country So without further measures to run the country differently, that effectively means they are losing money and not 'building wealth', right?

Oil is still profitable, just not enough to run the country.

Imagine it's a bunch of small restaurants. The Saudi place is owned by a large family and is the biggest, leanest place running the highest profit but this Russian crew is edging in with a place across the street. Both sets of owners have deep pockets and can keep their place running for a while. Then the US is the fancy food cart in the parking lot down the road that costs more per plate and has less capacity but is right next to the office buildings so gets the most attention at lunch.

The Saudis are still covering all costs and making money but the owners have other big expenses that are draining their wallets. The drain is faster than what the restaurant can earn but they would be worse off if it shut down for a few months.

The Russians have muscled in and though not as lean are keeping up and still covering costs (though it's a lot harder to see the cash flow, it's sketchy).

Then the food cart is running on really low margins and has no backing, it's an independent place, but it is running profitable thanks to the lunch rush. If it had to shut down it wouldn't be a huge loss each month in fixed costs like rent as the trailer can be stored.

The Saudis and Russians want the food cart to go out of business asap so the lunch customers have to come to them and bump their profits so they have to stay open and but up big lunch deals, even if a virus is going around that slows down the whole industry. Hopefully they can weather the drop in margins until the food cart is no longer making money and gets put in storage (where it will take a while to hire staff and bring back up to speed if it ever makes it back out).

Then, it's an isolated price war between the Saudi and Russian owned places until they recognize a duopoly and mutually leave prices high while still pulling in the lunch crowd as they are the only options or tying to undermine the other but at least the food cart is gone and the office workers are all reliant on them for lunch.

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