Live data from Hacker News

Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

bloomberg.com

41–50 of 499 posts

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#41
post #17
post #5

We're basically running out of tools to combat an actual financial crisis. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquiditytrap.asp

It can go negative, or Fed can do another round of QE, there are plenty of tools. The real question is whether the deficit can grow indefinitely without consequences, and if this is a moral hazard (e.g. no risk priced in borrowing).

It can grow larger than people realize.

As long as other countries do business in USD and keep buying US debt, the party keeps going.

With fiat, you can spend as much as the combined purchasing power of all your citizens through money printing.

When you’re the reserve currency, that pool is extended to the purchasing power of many many countries.

That’s probably why, from a strategic POV, the US must remain the largest military force and continue to police the world.

With dollar hegemony, the US might even introduce new ways (like MMT) of sipping purchasing power of participants.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#42

I'm retired and mostly not in the market. I won't invest in the market while it is overpriced. With such low interest rates, what is a safe investment?

There is no interest without risk.

I suggest Iranian, Argentinian bonds if you really want to get that blood flowing.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#43
post #19

This will further increase housing prices, no? How much more unobtainable for the average American could they possibly get? I suppose negative interest rates will let us know shortly!

Mortgage rates track more closely to 10 year Treasury notes and not by the Fed's discount rate based on my findings of late and tracking mortgages over the past few years.

The Fed funds rate doesn't really do much to near-term mortgage rates (at least it hasn't to me, as a consumer). The market dip in Treasuries (openly traded) depressed yields which drove mortgage rates much lower before the fed acted at all. Lower rates allows buyers to purchase a lot more home than they otherwise would have which has a good chance of being higher than any rise in the market price - especially for less frothy areas.

If you're talking about prices going up as institutional investors buy up property obviously disregard the above as it's a different dynamic.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#44

I'm retired and mostly not in the market. I won't invest in the market while it is overpriced. With such low interest rates, what is a safe investment?

invest in a new innovation that cures or mitigates covid-19, or cash and take your lumps. Money is a shared delusion; you can't force it to grow or retain value. Enjoy the net win factoring in the last 10years.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#45
post #29
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can go negative, or Fed can do another round of QE, there are plenty of tools. The real question is whether the deficit can grow indefinitely without consequences, and if this is a moral hazard (e.g. no risk priced in borrowing).

The European experience has shown that negative rates aren't really working, other than killing the local banking system.

Well that's not what the former ECB chairman Mario Draghi thought about it. According to him they were a success .. See e.g. http://www.ekathimerini.com/245837/article/ekathimerini/busi...

But even mr. Draghi might agree that right now the ECB is pretty powerless, given that it's rates are already below zero.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#47
post #5

We're basically running out of tools to combat an actual financial crisis. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquiditytrap.asp

Only because the toolset is artificially restricted for ideological reasons.

Fiscal responses (having the government spend actual money, either on things like infrastructure it by just handing it out to the population, which will then largely spend that money as they see fit) rather than monetary policy responses (reduce rates and hope that people will borrow more) are known to work well in most cases.

The Corona virus situation is slightly different than the financial mess of 2008 because it involves actual potential supply constraints. This means that a higher rate of inflation may have to be accepted temporarily. But inflation has arguably been far too low for far too long anyway...

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#48
post #19

This will further increase housing prices, no? How much more unobtainable for the average American could they possibly get? I suppose negative interest rates will let us know shortly!

Don’t worry, literally every single one of the presidential candidates in the democratic primary wants to “build wealth” by making housing ever more expensive. It’s practically state policy to make it impossible for a first-time buyer.

The entire point of housing policy at the local level, where it matters, is to make housing more expensive because people's wealth is in their homes and they're relying on housing prices to rise steadily. Renters have less political power.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#50
post #38
post #5

We're basically running out of tools to combat an actual financial crisis. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquiditytrap.asp

I'm pretty worried about this. I don't think this rate cut makes any sense. You can't stimulus away a virus.

There seem to be economic ways to help curtail it though.

- sick pay for hourly employees for next year

- backstop airlines, event planning and travel businesses in some capacity

- offer Netflix rewards for vaccines, testing methods or other applicable things

- cover cost of insurance for massive testing

Post reply on HN