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The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

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Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#41

Post by TFYS »

lazyier wrote: post #31
lostlogin wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because wealth isn’t evenly spread and those that beat this drum are on the wealthy end of the spectrum.

Wealth spread really doesn't matter so long as everybody is getting wealthier. Which is exactly what is happening. By every metric imaginable the entire population of the planet is gaining in wealth. Some quicker then others. But gains are largely universal. Poverty is at it's lowest point in all of human history. And in a month it'll be even lower. Also when wealth goes up, overall consumption as measured by actual…

Wealth spread does matter, though. Inequality decreases happiness, increases crime rate, concentrates power, etc. If you're poor the fact that you have a roof over your head, food to eat and a smartphone in your pocket doesn't make you feel any better if everywhere you go you see people who are much better off than you.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#43

Post by thulecitizen »

travisoneill1 wrote: post #24

The important part of economic growth is GDP/capita, not total GDP. And if we are to keep growing GDP/capita without destroying the environment, a population decline is absolutely necessary. Increasing population is only economically beneficial in the most short term sense.

I don’t think I 100% understand what you mean by population decline? Do you mean planned parenthood/contraception? In other words: what are some of the strategies you are in favor of to make this decline happen?

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#44

Post by thulecitizen »

lazyier wrote: post #31
lostlogin wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because wealth isn’t evenly spread and those that beat this drum are on the wealthy end of the spectrum.

Wealth spread really doesn't matter so long as everybody is getting wealthier. Which is exactly what is happening. By every metric imaginable the entire population of the planet is gaining in wealth. Some quicker then others. But gains are largely universal. Poverty is at it's lowest point in all of human history. And in a month it'll be even lower. Also when wealth goes up, overall consumption as measured by actual…

For me this claim that the world is only getting better has largely been debunked as junk science:

“ What Roser’s numbers actually reveal is that the world went from a situation where most of humanity had no need of money at all to one where today most of humanity struggles to survive on extremely small amounts of money. The graph casts this as a decline in poverty, but in reality what was going on was a process of dispossession that bulldozed people into the capitalist labour system, during the enclosure movements in Europe and the colonisation of the global south.” [1]

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/29/bill-g...

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#45

Post by pimmen »

I think this will have unforseen effects on real estate.

If the population globally is shrinking, that means the likelihood that any given town will increase in size is also shrinking. At first, this might look like the real estate prices across the board will decrease but I don’t think so. I think that when people factor in that the town they are in currently will not increase in size they look at cities that already have good markets and move there instead, driving up the prices of already established cities.

This is basically what is already happening in European countries with falling birth rates.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#46

Post by leetcrew »

thulecitizen wrote: post #43
travisoneill1 wrote: post #24

The important part of economic growth is GDP/capita, not total GDP. And if we are to keep growing GDP/capita without destroying the environment, a population decline is absolutely necessary. Increasing population is only economically beneficial in the most short term sense.

I don’t think I 100% understand what you mean by population decline? Do you mean planned parenthood/contraception? In other words: what are some of the strategies you are in favor of to make this decline happen?

in the west, one strategy would be to do nothing and let the current trend run its course.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#47

Post by AJ007 »

thulecitizen wrote: post #44
lazyier wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wealth spread really doesn't matter so long as everybody is getting wealthier. Which is exactly what is happening. By every metric imaginable the entire population of the planet is gaining in wealth. Some quicker then others. But gains are largely universal. Poverty is at it's lowest point in all of human history. And in a month it'll be even lower. Also when wealth goes up, overall consumption as measured by actual…

For me this claim that the world is only getting better has largely been debunked as junk science: “ What Roser’s numbers actually reveal is that the world went from a situation where most of humanity had no need of money at all to one where today most of humanity struggles to survive on extremely small amounts of money. The graph casts this as a decline in poverty, but in reality what was going on was a process of d…

Well you could look at childhood mortality rates as well.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#48

Post by leetcrew »

pimmen wrote: post #45

I think this will have unforseen effects on real estate. If the population globally is shrinking, that means the likelihood that any given town will increase in size is also shrinking. At first, this might look like the real estate prices across the board will decrease but I don’t think so. I think that when people factor in that the town they are in currently will not increase in size they look at cities that alread…

this could also cause a vicious cycle for the towns and smaller cities. there's a certain amount of fixed cost to maintain existing infrastructure. if a significant number of properties become vacant, the municipality will have to start hiking taxes to keep the same revenue, making the place even less desirable and causing more tax base to leave.

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#49

Post by buboard »

01100011 wrote: post #12
nordsieck wrote: post #4

> It is a distinct possibility — highlighted in the recent book, Empty Planet — that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. What happens to economic growth when population growth turns negative? IMO, this is a pretty silly idea. The fundamental problem with this theory is that there are sub-populations that have been able to maintain high fertility despite the decline in broader society…

This. There's a reason why religions exist. If they didn't increase the fitness of their adherents, they'd die out rather quickly. We may get caught off guard by shifting demographics and a decline in secular value systems. There are many religions which preach the 'fertility gospel' in one form or another. If the religion is effective in keeping the new generations devout, and that is an important question, we're go…

Many eastern european countries are very religuous but at the bottom of fertility stats. Some Devout muslim countries are very fertile, others not so. Is congo or angola particularly religious?

Re: The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population [pdf]

#50

Post by danharaj »

throwawaybbb wrote: post #35
lazyier wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wealth spread really doesn't matter so long as everybody is getting wealthier. Which is exactly what is happening. By every metric imaginable the entire population of the planet is gaining in wealth. Some quicker then others. But gains are largely universal. Poverty is at it's lowest point in all of human history. And in a month it'll be even lower. Also when wealth goes up, overall consumption as measured by actual…

The bottom 50% of the US are poorer than they were in 1968 in both real and absolute terms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_inequality_in_the_Unite...

But smartphones! /s
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