For those who want something a little more mobile-friendly, we just built a similar map over the weekend: https://coronavirus.app/
Coronavirus Real Time Map
41–50 of 146 posts
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#42Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating t…
From what I've read so far, it seems that hosts can infect healthy people 1-2 weeks before first symptoms. Something missing though is how long after the infection does the host become active in spreading the virus.
Yeah, that seems to be why the estimated R0 is so large.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
> even if half the people get infected You say "even" as if it's a conservative estimate, but to me 50% of the country's population being infected by the same virus sounds extreme. Wouldn't this be on the extreme side?
It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.
This is incorrect.
If we assume that this virus is as infectious as the common cold, we can expect the infection rate within a household to be approximately 25% of contacts. That means that of the people you LIVE with, 25% will catch it from you.
50% infection rate in a large, distributed population like China would be very extreme.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#44So based on the outcome so far (107 deaths, 63 fully recovered) the survival rate is 37%?
I think we should look at survival rate for patients in western care to get a better understanding of the rate of death when under better care.
I don't think there are enough cases outside China to perform that analysis yet. Of the 4474 cases, only 65 are outside China. My stats is rusty, but given that something like 2-3% of that 4474 in China have died, I think zero deaths from 65 cases outside China doesn't mean a ton.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#45Found this report circulating on twitter from a junior doctor in Australia. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v... Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions > Key findings: > ● We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (𝑅𝑅0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating t…
What about a 99.99% reduction in travel? Wuhan has 11 million and 1% of that is 100k, I'd imagine the quarantine is more successful than preventing 100k people from travelling.
I think their point is that with such a high reproduction number, the impact of anyone slipping through is amplified so much that reduction in travel alone will not do much to stop the spread.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.
This is incorrect. If we assume that this virus is as infectious as the common cold, we can expect the infection rate within a household to be approximately 25% of contacts. That means that of the people you LIVE with, 25% will catch it from you. 50% infection rate in a large, distributed population like China would be very extreme.
Not to mention people and the government are being a lot more careful than if this was a common cold.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#47Someone who is more versed in the usual statistics, how serious is it? Without domain knowledge, I have no idea if the few dozen deaths in this period at these locations is significant or not.
Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.
But that's deaths. Apparently a large part of surviving SARS patients still have significant health problems. And that's a coronavirus too.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
Deaths are mostly among immunocompromised, elderly or very young. Chances are you're going to be fine, if you get it, but it'll be a long and painful 2 weeks. The youngest adult that died was 34. That said with a mortality rate of 2%, affecting a country like China with 1.4 billion people, even if half the people get infected, that's 14 million dead. So overall serious on a large scale.
Also a question if it will be able to mutate in a larger population, given its long incubation period without symptoms it has more opportunity. I don't know how likely this is. Another question is how long will it continue to expand in reach in China and much affect it will have on the economy.
Question of mutation invariably comes up. I recommend this article: http://www.virology.ws/2020/01/23/a-lesson-from-sars-cov-for...
Summary: We know of deletion event in SARS Orf8, and amino acid change in ebola glycoprotein. In both cases, it decreased viral replication or virulence.
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems to be as infectious as a cold. So no.
This is incorrect. If we assume that this virus is as infectious as the common cold, we can expect the infection rate within a household to be approximately 25% of contacts. That means that of the people you LIVE with, 25% will catch it from you. 50% infection rate in a large, distributed population like China would be very extreme.
[deleted]
Re: Coronavirus Real Time Map
#50For those who want something a little more mobile-friendly, we just built a similar map over the weekend: https://coronavirus.app/
Completely offtopic: I'm really impressed that I can get the basic mapping with all javascript turned off. Kudos for that. Half the pages you visit these days can't even show text or pictures without js.