Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where? • Hacker News Board

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#41

Post by pb7 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:01 PM UTC

volkk wrote: post #29

What's the story behind the more affluent going to Wyoming? Would love to understand this

I'm guessing there is a lot of cheap land near beautiful nature, skiing, hiking, etc that people tend to do in retirement.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#42

Post by glofish » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:02 PM UTC

Considering that Florida is slowly but surely going underwater it is weird to see it as the most popular destination to move to.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#43

Post by Fauntleroy » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:02 PM UTC

option wrote: post #25

triceratops wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $600k avg home price. > homeless encampments on our bike trails These seem linked somehow...

Are they really? An honest question - suppose the housing does a nosedive to 100K. I still find it hard to believe that those living on the streets in tents with no jobs will rush to buy houses. The other category of “invisible” homeless - those living in cars and at friends places/garages will of course benefit if the average price of the housing drops

Obviously people with no real income will not be rushing out to buy houses... however, lowering home prices would help prevent people from becoming homeless in the first place. If you only have to manage to pay for a $100,000 home, it's going to be much easier to keep those payments up.

For those already homeless, special assistance will be required to get them back into "moneyed" society. However, a lower entry point to homeownership would make this assistance less costly.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#44

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:03 PM UTC

glofish wrote: post #42

Considering that Florida is slowly but surely going underwater it is weird to see it as the most popular destination to move to.

Lots of Florida will escape sea level rise, and the benefits (lower cost of living, no state income tax, tropic climate with no snow) can be realized immediately. You care even less if you’re a renter or >10 feet above sea level.

Migration numbers don’t lie, lots of folks love Florida, or at least like it enough to move and stay put.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#45

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:03 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#46

Post by ghaff » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:03 PM UTC

blululu wrote: post #13

ourmandave wrote: post #5

The numbers are shown in tables with Net Migration (taxpayers and dependents) and their Average Income of departing taxpayers. So 75,386 (taxpayers and dependents) moved from IL to FL and their average income was $135K. That seems to imply that they all took their high paying jobs with them somehow.

This may be slightly skewed by the effect of retirees (people earn the most before they retire). Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather. A lot of affluent people leave the state and retire to Florida. I'm not sure if the article's analysis is really concerned with these nuances.

The data would be more interesting if it factored out people retiring. I'm actually a bit surprised that people from New York and Illinois seem to stay on the East Coast by moving to Florida for the most part. But, in any case, I expect that the Nevada, Arizona, and Florida migrations in particular are driven by retirement to a significant degree.

That said, anecdotally, I do know a fair number of people who have left California and essentially no one who has moved there absent a work-related reason to live there. The state has things going for it but also a lot of negatives--especially CoL in a lot of places.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#47

Post by Ozumandias » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:04 PM UTC

chadlavi wrote: post #38

I'd like to cordially invite more folks to leave New York to make room (and depressed housing prices) for the rest of us. Thanks in advance!

After you, sir.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#48

Post by glofish » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:04 PM UTC

zone411 wrote: post #30

We made a map using domestic migration data: https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1202655115628466177

the direction (your arrows) are too small and hard to see, yet the most important part of a visualization

perhaps put the arrow at the end, that way one can see which connection is a source and which one is a target

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#49

Post by rb808 » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:05 PM UTC

To me its fascinating the growth of state's pop. TX is sucking up people so fast. NY has hardly changed in 70 years.

  State 1850 1900 1950  2020
  NY     3    7    17    19
  IL     1    4.8   8.7  13
  CA     .1   1.5  10.5  39
  TX     .2   3     8    29
  FL     .1   0.5   2.7  21

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#50

Post by psychometry » Fri, Jan 17, 2020, 9:05 PM UTC

siculars wrote: post #9

Having left NYC for Texas 5 years ago, I can confirm the grass is greener on the other side.

Greener, but also regressive and generally playing catch-up to progress. Texas ranks in the bottom half of states on most quality-of-life rankings.