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Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019

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Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019

#41

Post by zuminator »

busymom0 wrote: post #10

In 28 August 1981, the mean surface temperature is 288K = 15 degree C: http://climate-dynamics.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/hanse... ---------- In 1988, it was claimed that the global avg temperature was 59 deg F = 15 degree C Multiple sources: https://www.nytimes.com/1988/03/29/science/temperature-for-w... https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1915&dat=19880705&id=... ---------- IPCC's First Assessment Report in…

As you know, you're piggybacking talking points off of a minor conspiracy theory that has been floating around for a while. Here's a yahoo post from 7 years ago raising the same questions and citing much the same sources: https://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=201211281036...

I won't pretend to know anything in detail about climate science but these alleged discrepancies don't seem to have raised enough alarms at any point to have warranted a serious rebuttal from the scientific community. Perhaps citing a handful of random cherry-picked sources isn't really the smoking gun you think it is? However, fwiw, here's a comment from a couple of years ago responding to some of those points. https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php?p=11&t=521&&a=110#...

Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019

#42

Post by SigmundA »

_8j50 wrote: post #4

Is it practical to have giant nuclear powered facilities that either pump cooled air or artificially cool surface ocean water? Or just use the electricity to break down water for O2 production and use the hydrogen to power other things?

That would be a heat pump and say it worked at a COP of 3 which is typical you would need 1 watt of power to move 3 watts of heat to somewhere, probably deep underground.

Nuclear power is what maybe 40% efficient so 60% of the nuclear energy is waste heat, so for every watt of energy 1.5 watts of heat released.

So now your only netting 1.5 watts for every watt. To make a difference the numbers would be staggering as the earth receives on the order 170,000 terawatts of solar energy.

Solar power rather than nuclear would make more sense but again the scale to make a difference is staggering.

I think more "realistic" would be using energy to split CO2 back into C and O2 and sequestering the carbon in the ground which is basically what plants do through photosynthesis. If we could make machines that do that more efficiently on a large scale from solar power we might make a difference.

Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019

#44

Post by bsaul »

thu2111 wrote: post #35
bsaul wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are you familiar with the blog made by tony heller (also on youtube) ? He regularely points out those exact same remark. I am very careful to wait until other people confirms that there is indeed a methodological problem before jumping to conclusion, but it really sounds very interesting.

I read Heller's blog. I've also done a bit of double checking of his work because indeed, what he keeps uncovering is extremely interesting and should I feel really have been discussed in popular journalism about climate before now. I want to check more of his claims in future. But for now, I only checked how many data points in the NOAA US temperature dataset are now the output of model simulations and not actual me…

I really thank you for your comment, and the time you took to honestly assess the current situation. The one thing that i still have a hard time accepting is that a whole community of scientist accepts doing science on such a fragile basis (such as the fact that more than three quarter of the world wasn't recording temperature until 50 years ago).

It seems impossible that so many people keep doing their work on fragile data (and code, apparently), while at the same time seeing their work used by politicians all over the world to advocate massive policy changes.

I still haven't reached a personal conclusion, but i would be glad to read about the progress made by "hands deep in the dirt" people like you in their investigation.

Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019

#45

Post by emj »

ratboy666 wrote: post #43

Very nice animation! Data is suspect, though -- US 1937 should be bright red, not pale yellow. 1937 had record heat wave in US.

It's probably ok but you could look at the source data and be more specific, averages and base indexes can play tricks on the visualization. From the video:

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gisstemp

Data source NASA GISS, GISTEMP Land-Ocean Temprature Index (LOTI), ERSSTv5, 12000km square smoothing.

Average of monthly temprature anaomolies. GISTEMP base period 1951-1980.

Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019

#48

Post by aldoushuxley001 »

busymom0 wrote: post #14
Tepix wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting observation. Changing by a whole degree celsius is quite a big change that needs a good reason. If you wouldn't use the word "magic" in your post, I'd perceive it as neutral/curious.

I am curious but I have pointed out similar discrepancies quite a few times but never received a satisfactory response. Now a days, I am pretty much afraid to even point out such discrepancies in other data too. I can share another example if anyone's curious.

I’d be very interested in another example. It’s not too often we can hear evidence against AGW so it’s worth the downvotes that it will inevitably bring.

Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019

#49

Post by pjc50 »

busymom0 wrote: post #22
rrmm wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The larger point I'm trying to make is that average global temperature is something that is calculated as a result of the specific method the people doing the study use. It's not a simple average of a list of numbers. It tries to account for missing and spotty data, instrument biases, location biases, etc. So if they find a better way to do it the calculated value will change.

That's a fair point and others have mentioned that before. However, all the sources I have used in my original comment are from the same person - Dr James Hansen who served as the director of NASA Goddard institute for 35 years. He used the 15C claim for many years until he suddenly decided to switch to 14C. In any scientific claim, especially when such small changes could impact major things, a scientist shouldn't s…

Fortunately there are an awful lot of other proxy variables which can be used to show a long-term change in climate. One example of thousands is the Japanese cherry blossom season: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/04/07/japans-c...

And yes, there have been reversals in some years. But overall you can see the industrialisation "hockey stick" quite clearly in that calendar data.

Re: Animation shows the temperature change by country from year 1880 to 2019

#50

Post by empath75 »

busymom0 wrote: post #17
rrmm wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The research is done in terms of a temperature anomaly from a reference that is chosen. The absolute mean temperature is an estimate based on the specific technique chosen using the data as input. The delta values are more important because they are calculated with a consistent method for a given model, whereas from model to model the value may change. from https://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8314 """ The two main mar…

That doesn't answer the sudden change from 15C claims to 14C for the 1950-1980 period. For example, in the following data, for 2016, they say the average global temperature as 14.8C: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613 If the average global temp used to be claimed to be 15C but since 2000, they claim it was 14C, then somebody is making false claims about the avg temp.

> If the average global temp used to be claimed to be 15C but since 2000, they claim it was 14C, then somebody is making false claims about the avg temp.

You get different baseline body temperatures depending on whether you use an oral thermometer or one of those infrared thermometers you put in the ear, but you'll both be able to detect a fever -- it's higher than it would normally be with that thermometer.

There are many ways of measuring the average temperature of the planet, and they will return different results today, tomorrow and yesterday -- but if you use the same method across time, all of them should agree on whether the planet is warming or cooling over all. One might say it was 15 in the 60s and 16 today, another might say that it was 14 in the 60s and 15 today -- they both agree the planet has warmed by a degree, though.

It's easy to go through several decades of stories on climate and cherry pick measurements from different news stories to make it look like the numbers are all over the place, but you have to compare measurements from a single source using a single method.

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