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Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

nature.com

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Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#41
post #6

Living in Eastern Europe right now. It's +6 Celsius for the last week. Earth hasn't frozen yet, so if any snow falls it melts in a few hours. In comparison, when I was growing up here in the 90s; we had solid -30 Celsius winters for several months. You had to prepare opposed to nowadays, where buying a winter jacket comes down to preference. Cold or not cold... But climate change is a hoax, right?

I “feel” the same way about the east coast of the US, but I know that is super unscientific - comparing impressions as an adult to childhood memories, but I really don’t recall 70 degree days being routine. Now I live in the upper midwest, I learned in some class that the upper Midwest of the US was one of the few places on Earth not warming on average (actually anomalously cold) but this winter is like one of the “o…

I think Buffalo specifically

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#42
post #13

Australia is burning, its government doesn't seem to think anything is wrong, they just want to dig more coal

They might not get the chance: latest news[1] this morning is that some of the coal seams have caught fire underground! This is catastrophic. Underground coal (and oil) fires are near-impossible to put out and are generally just left alone to burn, usually for decades before/if they run out of fuel. [1] https://twitter.com/maetl/status/1213420680579964929?s=20

Is there a source for this assertion?

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#44
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or laws/taxes are passed, which incorporate the externalities, and subventions for detrimental efforts are cut. That is "just" a matter of political will.

How much war are you willing to wage to force other countries to do the same? I think that's really the only question that matters when it comes to the "everybody pass laws" plan.

You can never know when the tipping point is because either you haven't yet hit it, or you already have but don't know at which point in the past the death spiral could have been prevented, if at all.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#45
post #35

it would be naive/foolish to expect that the enormous technological progress and overpopulation by humans would not affect the environment. The question is how fast can people and ecosystems adapt. This is not the first nor the biggest change the earth has seen by far. It's also naive to think that politics is going to reverse that change - it's a technological problem.

the overpopulation mantra has been debunked so many times already.

edit: since i'm getting downvoted for pointing out the obvious, here's links pointing out that overpopulation is a myth, even a racist one in some circumstances:

wapo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-the...

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/fee.org/articles/the-myth-tha...

https://www.pop.org/debunking-the-myth-of-overpopulation/

https://www.globaljustice.org.uk/blog/2019/mar/9/how-racist-...

kurzgesagt: https://youtu.be/QsBT5EQt348

the guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/19/overpopulatio...

nytimes: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/14/opinion/overpopulation-is...

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/25/overpopulation-the-de...

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#46

People's financial incentives are not aligned with the climate's necessary modifications. The two won't be aligned until climate passes over its tipping point and enters an irreversible feedback loop.

Because laissez-faire economics doesn't converge automagically on the best path.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1993/12/how-the...

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#47
post #13

Australia is burning, its government doesn't seem to think anything is wrong, they just want to dig more coal

They might not get the chance: latest news[1] this morning is that some of the coal seams have caught fire underground! This is catastrophic. Underground coal (and oil) fires are near-impossible to put out and are generally just left alone to burn, usually for decades before/if they run out of fuel. [1] https://twitter.com/maetl/status/1213420680579964929?s=20

The oldest one is about 6,000 years old

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_Mountain

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They might not get the chance: latest news[1] this morning is that some of the coal seams have caught fire underground! This is catastrophic. Underground coal (and oil) fires are near-impossible to put out and are generally just left alone to burn, usually for decades before/if they run out of fuel. [1] https://twitter.com/maetl/status/1213420680579964929?s=20

Is there a source for this assertion?

It's a decently well-known phenomenon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal-seam_fire

For example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia_mine_fire -- Started burning in 1962. Still burning today and on track to burn for another 250 years.

Re: Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

#50

I'm quite tired of the framing of the climate change discussion, whether it exists or not. It is like you pondering whether your house is going to actually burn next year or not when you think about purchasing insurance. Completely idiotic question. What you are thinking is the risk (i.e probability times loss) of your house burning. So no, I am not going to tell you that the climate catastrophe is going to happen. W…

As someone who's not up to date on all the climate research. Are most the scientists in agreement that climate change is a result of our actions? And do they all agree on how dangerous changes to our climate are?

The IPCC summary is available to read: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-spm-...

> very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m–2

> Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

> The equilibrium climate sensitivity is a measure of the climate system response to sustained radiative forcing. It is not a projection but is defi ned as the global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. It is likely to be in the range 2°C to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C.

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