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My Semester with the Snowflakes

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Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#41

Post by TuringTest »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #37
atoav wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This interactive MIT tool gives you a feeling for the possible solutions: https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/ I won't spoil it for you, but you could find out that you might want to phrase that question of yours differently..

I struggle to understand what I'm supposed to get out of this tool. If "new technology" has a "huge breakthrough", global warming will be reduced .3 degrees - but we'd better hope that the breakthrough doesn't cause "economic growth" to become "high growth", since that will increase it by .7 degrees. Doesn't matter what the technology does or how the economic growth happens, we can predict their effects... somehow. I…

That's why they provide a full-blown training course to make sense of the simulator and associated negotiation roleplaying game:

https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/en-roads/the-en-roa...

https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/climate-action-simu...

Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#42

Post by TuringTest »

beachy wrote: post #29
mikemotherwell wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? That's weather and short term. https://aqicn.org/map/sydney is the pollution in Sydney. Here is Jakarta https://aqicn.org/map/jakarta Look at the historical data: all red and yellow for Jakarta, almost all green for Sydney, with the last two months an exception. Climate change is going to have little to no impact on Sydney now or in the next 50-60 years.

How do you get from a map of the current air quality in Sydney to blithely saying climate change will have "little to no effect" on Sydney for the next 60 years?

It is a common trolling strategy, I have seen it applied elsewhere to delegitimise measures against climate change.

It doesn't make any sense, but apparently it is enough to satisfy the unsophisticated blind followers of climate denialism. Anything that sounds contrarian and data-based is deemed a sufficient response to distract attention, which is scarce in most online discussion forums.

Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#43

Post by atoav »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #37
atoav wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This interactive MIT tool gives you a feeling for the possible solutions: https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/ I won't spoil it for you, but you could find out that you might want to phrase that question of yours differently..

I struggle to understand what I'm supposed to get out of this tool. If "new technology" has a "huge breakthrough", global warming will be reduced .3 degrees - but we'd better hope that the breakthrough doesn't cause "economic growth" to become "high growth", since that will increase it by .7 degrees. Doesn't matter what the technology does or how the economic growth happens, we can predict their effects... somehow. I…

There is a small explaination for each parameter when you click the ⋮ on the top right of each parameter.

And on the breakthrough technology question: of course we could discover a unknown technology that will instantly solve everything without even having to honor the inertia of the slow but hard to steer forces that make up climate change. And while I really hope this would happen, I'd rather have more realistic scenarios in the meantime.

Suppose we invent free energy. How long will it take for that technology to replace everything on the planet? How much emissions will this distribution of technology produce? Even with fairytale-style-technology overcoming the inertia of the ongoing processes will be anything but easy.

Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#44

Post by blackflame »

kortilla wrote: post #9
sillysaurusx wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would people be unwelcome after a certain age? They’re just as valid of a student as anyone else. “Tried” implies he failed. I wonder if it was due to his own merits, or due to bias against him due to age.

Fraternities have very little to do with the education aspect of being a student.

College provides more education opportunities than just those found in the classroom. Social skills are just as fundamental as arithmetic in a successful career.

Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#45

Post by gfodor »

siquick wrote: post #20
sysbin wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They’ll be graduating into the strongest economy in American history. They’ll be just fine. How are you forecasting that future? Seems strange to read it with what you see now and as you phrase the lost generation that's struggling from inflation & low wages.. I'm skeptical but I think the worst is yet to come for the next generations. Unless all the young adults that are struggling don't just all commit suicide in…

And no mention of the elephant in the room - climate change. It feels like we're already seeing it here in Sydney, Australia. We've had dangerously low air quality from bush fires for the last 1.5 months and we now have a serious water shortage. I've been accepting of climate change up until recently - now I'm genuinely worried about the future here.

Climate change is a known problem. Known problems will be solved, since they can be measured and people are (or in this case, will soon be) incentivized to solve them. Climate change is a huge challenge but not one I particularly worry about since it exists in humanity’s collective consciousness as an idea.

It’s unknown problems you should worry about, that are unnamable because they are unpredictable and unknowable until they happen.

Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#47

Post by sysbin »

gfodor wrote: post #45
siquick wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And no mention of the elephant in the room - climate change. It feels like we're already seeing it here in Sydney, Australia. We've had dangerously low air quality from bush fires for the last 1.5 months and we now have a serious water shortage. I've been accepting of climate change up until recently - now I'm genuinely worried about the future here.

Climate change is a known problem. Known problems will be solved, since they can be measured and people are (or in this case, will soon be) incentivized to solve them. Climate change is a huge challenge but not one I particularly worry about since it exists in humanity’s collective consciousness as an idea. It’s unknown problems you should worry about, that are unnamable because they are unpredictable and unknowable…

That's a lot of optimism from labeling a problem as known vs unknown. I'm hesitant thinking there is logic from assuming a problem known will be fixed. Also it's not too far fetched to think climate change can snowball while being irreversible.

Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#48

Post by gfodor »

sysbin wrote: post #47
gfodor wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Climate change is a known problem. Known problems will be solved, since they can be measured and people are (or in this case, will soon be) incentivized to solve them. Climate change is a huge challenge but not one I particularly worry about since it exists in humanity’s collective consciousness as an idea. It’s unknown problems you should worry about, that are unnamable because they are unpredictable and unknowable…

That's a lot of optimism from labeling a problem as known vs unknown. I'm hesitant thinking there is logic from assuming a problem known will be fixed. Also it's not too far fetched to think climate change can snowball while being irreversible.

Consider the massive amount of effort, comparatively, between the effort going on and the conversation around mitigating the risk of climate change, and the risk of the flamzboo event, which is destined to quickly destroy humanity in the next decade.

I can't call it something other than the flamzboo event, since we don't know what it is. The clearest picture one can have of what this event potentially is is by considering events which would have similar impact but are currently fringe in terms of public consciousness such as:

- Supervolcano eruptions

- Asteroid impacts

- AI takeoff

- Engineered bio weapons

- Autonomous lethal weapons

- Commoditized, small nuclear weapons

These are not the things I'm talking about, since they have some level of consciousness, but are the closest examples since they are not top of mind in the public consciousness but are confer high x-risk. The ones I worry about are the ones that we can't know currently, that may be lurking on the horizon. One doesn't have to look far back in history to recognize these problems are typically the ones we get hurt by: surprises.

Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#49

Post by sysbin »

gfodor wrote: post #48
sysbin wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a lot of optimism from labeling a problem as known vs unknown. I'm hesitant thinking there is logic from assuming a problem known will be fixed. Also it's not too far fetched to think climate change can snowball while being irreversible.

Consider the massive amount of effort, comparatively, between the effort going on and the conversation around mitigating the risk of climate change, and the risk of the flamzboo event, which is destined to quickly destroy humanity in the next decade. I can't call it something other than the flamzboo event, since we don't know what it is. The clearest picture one can have of what this event potentially is is by consid…

I don't think I can agree. Sure, something like the plague or an asteroid impact has considerable unknowns and thus considered unfixable/dangerous/worrisome. My scepticism is from observing society, seeing tremendous problems never fixed and when people with authority are aware of it.

I think greed, selfishness and people truly inconsiderate happens on a greater scale than what we imagine with factoring into as an issue with the problem of global warming. I guess my scepticism is from considering the forgoing, before thinking of global warming and then thinking of other problems humanity faced (where people are concerned with their daily lifestyle continuing or improving).

Global warming is somewhat unique in the list of known problems when I think about it. I assume it will be too late, before people start being truly effected and to the point they act on something other than promoting public awareness. I've been living a lifestyle where I always walk to work & back. I don't own a car and I somewhat imagine similar steps need to be taken on a larger scale. I'm doubtful people will go from being knowledgable to acting. I have less faith on corporations and laws changing so they must act if they even care about being fined.

Re: My Semester with the Snowflakes

#50

Post by sneak »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #34
sneak wrote: post #14

It’s interesting how much implied context is in this: that someone old, and related to the military (presumably right-leaning from the “snowflake” term), likely distrusts/disrespects someone young and wealthy from the coasts (presumably left-leaning from geography). Are we really so polarized? Are hundreds of millions so gung-ho to flock away from the center? Can the whole American situation be approximately summed u…

I feel like this is a pretty weird reading of the article. The author makes it clear that the real situation is more nuanced than that, that the people he's met at Yale aren't trying to flock away from the center at all.

I feel like the article is written into that presumption/expectation. It comes very much from a “I was like that, but now I am like this” place.
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